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January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The strong signal for a trough centered over AK is definitely troubling. It will pretty much wreck our source region. We saw a similar version of that early in the season. It's one thing to have a tough in the western conus with plenty of cold present but having most if not all of Canada getting flooded with pac maritime air is a different beast alltogether. 

The only good thing I see is this winter has shown that nothing hangs around for too long. We've had 2 runs of the AK ridge and neither lasted very long. If variability is the true theme of this winter then I wouldn't expect the AK trough to stick around for a month. As PSU has said several times, the logical way out and reasonable progression is to have the trough retro west and higher heights build in the PNA region. Ensembles are hinting at that but no consensus yet. Hopefully in another week the way out starts to show itself with a stronger signal. 

All in all this winter is definitely behaving like an underperformer. Not just here but in general in the east. The SE is starting down the barrel of a big storm but it could end up like us last winter...one storm makes the winter. Even if things line up ok in late jan into feb, this sure has the feel of a sub climo winter. Luckily our climo is low enough where 1-2 events can make a huge dent. 

Climo hah. I doubt I have any chance to sniff climo here. Im just chasing a respectable period of snow. Maybe 10-15" total in a 2-3 week period or something. That's for up here I mean. I'll be very happy with 60% of climo at this point. Just trying to avoid a crap the bed winter. Keep in mind it's a lot harder for me to fluke my way to climo in a bad year. My avg is propped up on a different way. In good years it can be very very good. Like over 80" is not that uncommon up here in the big years like 96, 2003, 2010, 2014. 2010 went over 100". Then in bad years we tend to manage to scrape our way to 15-20" or so the avg doesn't take too bad a hit. But fluke years where one big storm skews things for D.C. usially are below normal up here. Even last year I only went a couple inches over avg even with that freaking 30" storm. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I'm curious to see if euro weeklies keep the pattern change locked around Jan 25. Last nights EPS does look about what the weeklies a few days ago said it would around Jan 21 so nothings been pushed back yet. I don't mind if the change tamed till start of feb but if we start pushing it into feb then I'm pretty sold this is a crap year. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, euro would be a massive storm. Coastal is just starting to take over and we already have 6-10" OTG. I'm going to really enjoy the next 12 hours. 

Of course.  I leave for London on the 13th.  I'm going to be sick if that happens.  Thank God I have the odds on my side.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL at the upcoming terrible pattern.

we have gotten some really good storms from terrible patterns and have been shutout of great products. HM was shocked a few weeks ago on twitter when i reminded him that we got a 6 inch snowstorm in Dec 27-28 of 90 or 91(cant remember the year) but that period had the most positive NAO in history!

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have gotten some really good storms from terrible patterns and have been shutout of great products. HM was shocked a few weeks ago on twitter when i reminded him that we got a 6 inch snowstorm in Dec 27-28 of 90 or 91(cant remember the year) but that period had the most positive NAO in history!

90

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

EPS definitely picked up on more of a chance d10. Scanning the members there are quite a few with the wedge like the ops has. Different timing and strength of the high and approaching shortwave spread solutions out quite a but but all in all I would say that the EPS lends some credence to the *potential* of an event of some sort. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Posted this in the wrong thread so I'll copy

"It's not a classically good h5 setup overall pattern wise but the specifics within the overall patter have hinted at this kind of possibility for a while. I think it's been mostly dismissed because of how ugly a glance at the means makes the period look. It still probably won't work but it's got more of a chance then I think the perception is given the overriding crap h5 pattern. "

"The problem with an h5 ensemble mean at range is  it can wash out the details. For instance due to timing differences that far out on individual members plus a few members that pop a huge freaking death ridge a 5 day period that might be 3 warm days and 2 cold ones will wash out to a warm look overall. Add in the outlier members that think a super ridge the whole period and it skews it warm when looking at individual members shows a high coming across within the period. 

The other factor is it's January. Above normal h5 heights aren't going to be all that warm with a 1045 high over Montreal and a storm sliding under it. Looking at individual runs has shown the idea of high pressures sliding across to our north for a while. Probably aided by the AO going negative during the period. The overriding pattern isn't great so we still need timing help but if you put 1040 highs to our north one after another for a week and have waves coming across every 2 days the odds of timing one up aren't crazy. "

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Weeklies? 

Sorry dinner lol. 

They look acceptable to me. Week 3 starts awful ends with the ridge retro into West Bank of Hudson. Not a bad spot. Week 4 on us pna ridge trough east. At times the trough axis seems a bit east of my liking. But it's a workable pattern week 4 on and with a couple nice windows. Generally +pna -nao the duration Jan 25 on. Two periods pop out on 5 day snow means abs are supported by h5. Jan 30-feb 4 and feb 9-14 have snow bullseye over our region relatively. It kept the same general idea as last run imo and didn't push back the flip or way we get out of eastern ridge hell.  Not a super cold look but could get some storm tracks favorable.  I'll buy. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Week 3 sucks until late. Pna starts to build and AK trough retros west. Week 4 pops a nasty -epo with +pna intact. Weeks 5-7 continue week 4's look in general. 

Not much blocking to speak of but ridge axis in the easy is decent. 

No blocking but nao looks negative most of the time. With that PAC look I'll take a neutral to slightly neg nao anyways. You ninjad me. Considering we already knew what they looked like to day 15 and by 21 they are breaking the pattern with the retro of the whole ridge axis I'll take it as a win. We couldn't really reasonably have expected much better or faster. What u think?  Buy/sell?

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Thx Bob and Psu. I'm just about ready to pull the trigger on Wxbell, or maybe Accuwx. Accuwx has euro text precip and decent sounding products,  both of cwhich are lacking at Wxbell. But if wave 2 is a total bust, I may refuse to do either as punishment for their winter snow forecasts this year.  Lol

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Thx Bob and Psu. I'm just about ready to pull the trigger on Wxbell, or maybe Accuwx. Accuwx has euro text precip and decent sounding products,  both of c which are lacking at Wxbell. But if wave 2 is a total bust, I may refuse to do either as punishment for their winter snow forecasts this year.  Lol

I have both. Cant beat the text for the Euro and GFS on Accuwx. Sometimes I'm so lazy so I just watch the text output come in instead of watching the model come in.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Week 3 sucks until late. Pna starts to build and AK trough retros west. Week 4 pops a nasty -epo with +pna intact. Weeks 5-7 continue week 4's look in general. 

Not much blocking to speak of but ridge axis in the easy is decent. 

 

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry dinner lol. 

They look acceptable to me. Week 3 starts awful ends with the ridge retro into West Bank of Hudson. Not a bad spot. Week 4 on us pna ridge trough east. At times the trough axis seems a bit east of my liking. But it's a workable pattern week 4 on and with a couple nice windows. Generally +pna -nao the duration Jan 25 on. Two periods pop out on 5 day snow means abs are supported by h5. Jan 30-feb 4 and feb 9-14 have snow bullseye over our region relatively. It kept the same general idea as last run imo and didn't push back the flip or way we get out of eastern ridge hell.  Not a super cold look but could get some storm tracks favorable.  I'll buy. 

Thanks for the update on the Euro weeklies...I've been curious what they would show compared to the last ones, and this sounds consistent.  I think this is the best we could have hoped for at this point, so yeah, guess I'll buy as well!  It is good to hear that the change to a better look after week 3 (or starting late week 3) is still intact and not being pushed farther out in time.  I think most of us would take a -EPO/+PNA/somewhat -NAO for the 2nd half of winter and run with it.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

Thanks for the update on the Euro weeklies...I've been curious what they would show compared to the last ones, and this sounds consistent.  I think this is the best we could have hoped for at this point, so yeah, guess I'll buy as well!  It is good to hear that the change to a better look after week 3 (or starting late week 3) is still intact and not being pushed farther out in time.  I think most of us would take a -EPO/+PNA/somewhat -NAO for the 2nd half of winter and run with it.

It's as best as I expected because since it's initialized off last nights EPS we know what it looks like to day 15 already. And it's not like that day 15 look was going to flip to great in 3 days. So getting it to begin to flip basically 3-4 days after that then completing the pattern change by day 21 or so feels about as fast as I hoped for. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No blocking but nao looks negative most of the time. With that PAC look I'll take a neutral to slightly neg nao anyways. You ninjad me. Considering we already knew what they looked like to day 15 and by 21 they are breaking the pattern with the retro of the whole ridge axis I'll take it as a win. We couldn't really reasonably have expected much better or faster. What u think?  Buy/sell?

If the +pna is real and stays put in time once were in regular ens range then I'll feel pretty good for more chances during prime time. 

If the AK trough proves persistent then we are looking at a rough year outside of flukes. Hopefully we get another shot over the next 10 days so Jan will look better on paper when all said and done. 

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