mattie g Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I'm going with Roger Smith. Based on the discussion right now, we could see a progression of this type. The January window may have been a little early, but overall I like it. Give us a full moon and BOOM! On 1/4/2017 at 11:47 PM, Roger Smith said: Currently thinking that the best snowfall opportunities will be Jan 27-28, Feb 9-10 and Feb 24-26. The pattern is not vastly different from what I was expecting but cold air is being wasted on the inter-mountain west (giving me snow) and so the flow is not troughing far enough east yet, it's not like a raging torch pattern but when cold comes it has nothing to fight against in such a low-amplitude wave pattern, developments at present are vaguely encouraging (very nice storm potential for se VA) but I wouldn't look for much to happen through mid-January until we get a bit of height building in the eastern arctic and Greenland. Thus I remain optimistic about a good snowfall total eventually, the prime period is being pushed back into the best six weeks in climatological terms (late January to early March) for east coast snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I am assuming this is in reference to next week? Think we will see some impulses in the northern stream through that period that the models don't pick up on well until closer in. Maybe squeak out and inch or 2 that way. With the ridge/trough axis being progged, it's going to be hard to near impossible for a NS vort to pass below us. The only reason we aren't in a shutout pattern over the next 2 weeks is because temps could support snow. It's awful close to a shutout pattern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: With the ridge/trough axis being progged, it's going to be hard to near impossible for a NS vort to pass below us. The only reason we aren't in a shutout pattern over the next 2 weeks is because temps could support snow. It's awful close to a shutout pattern though. This is pretty much what has been expected looking at the advertised pattern evolution on the ensembles the past week or so. Some here were/are discussing the possibility of a freak coastal bomb around the 24th, but there is no sign of cold anywhere so its not realistic to expect anything other than more rain. Once the ridge establishes out west, we get colder, but dry for a period. Its always looked like early Feb where we could get back in the game with snow chances, and likely not until late in the first week or even beyond. It is what it is, but at least the advertised change is persistent on all guidance and not shifting in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: I am assuming this is in reference to next week? Think we will see some impulses in the northern stream through that period that the models don't pick up on well until closer in. Maybe squeak out and inch or 2 that way. You may be OK with northers stream stuff in that setup. But that looks like nothing but heartache for us down here. Gonna be hard to get anything south of us I think. oops. I really need to read the next page before responding. Ninja'd by Bob of Course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 PDIIII or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Euro is........interesting....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I am just as frustrated as everyone else, but there are enough good things going on with the pattern drivers right now to hang on and see how this shakes out in the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Euro is........interesting....... yea digesting it now. interesting is a good way of putting it. It's still likely to end in heartbreak but the GFS took a step towards it also and its been slowly trending towards maybe something for a while. I am not sure it can get there in the 95 corridor but for the higher elevation places its becoming possibly something to keep an eye on for a surprise. Also driving the cold in after the system such that perhaps that next vort could do something. Its a weird convoluted complicated setup. We suck at those. But at least interesting is better then how I would describe most of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 GEFS just had its first run in a long while that threw us some bones in the snowfall department. One actually heavy hitter NW of 95 with the day 6-7 storm. A few others are close. Its a LONG shot but if it continues to trend colder, ehh, I dont want to get any hopes up I dont see it as much of a risk but its still far enough out that crazier things have happened. Then a few big hits scattered in the mix day 10-15. Its at least something in a sea of boring lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEFS just had its first run in a long while that threw us some bones in the snowfall department. One actually heavy hitter NW of 95 with the day 6-7 storm. A few others are close. Its a LONG shot but if it continues to trend colder, ehh, I dont want to get any hopes up I dont see it as much of a risk but its still far enough out that crazier things have happened. Then a few big hits scattered in the mix day 10-15. Its at least something in a sea of boring lately. We will track a tenth of an inch of sleet and rain.. so yes.. we will watch and hope... I cried with my FB memory of what today's models showed a year ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yea digesting it now. interesting is a good way of putting it. It's still likely to end in heartbreak but the GFS took a step towards it also and its been slowly trending towards maybe something for a while. I am not sure it can get there in the 95 corridor but for the higher elevation places its becoming possibly something to keep an eye on for a surprise. Also driving the cold in after the system such that perhaps that next vort could do something. Its a weird convoluted complicated setup. We suck at those. But at least interesting is better then how I would describe most of this winter. Thats the more interesting part. Still think the 24th storm is super unlikely to get frozen in our region. NE has a decent shot with the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: You may be OK with northers stream stuff in that setup. But that looks like nothing but heartache for us down here. Gonna be hard to get anything south of us I think. oops. I really need to read the next page before responding. Ninja'd by Bob of Course I'm not sure we can place that much faith in two week progs even if they are ensembles, and, I don't think we can predict sw's at two week intervals. So I'm not that sure that it would be as difficult as some are saying to catch a clipper. Two things. One, to catch a ns sw before it heads north of us, I think it still needs some downward momentum for lack of a better way to say it. If it rounds the bottom of the trough west of us, then north it goes. Two, if the ridge is steep, I think that might help as well. We've had some clippers do just that. It's the ones that ride a flatter trough that end up shooting north of us as they approach. Anyway, as messy as that is, I think it's possible to get small clipper type snows out of that type of pattern. Not likely, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Man I hate not paying for the Euro this year. That 120 Hr 500 panel and 850 temp look decent for some snow out this way. But trying to interpret anything from the 24 hour free maps sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: Man I hate not paying for the Euro this year. That 120 Hr 500 panel and 850 temp look decent for some snow out this way. But trying to interpret anything from the 24 hour free maps sucks. You're not missing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm not sure we can place that much faith in two week progs even if they are ensembles, and, I don't think we can predict sw's at two week intervals. So I'm not that sure that it would be as difficult as some are saying to catch a clipper. Two things. One, to catch a ns sw before it heads north of us, I think it still needs some downward momentum for lack of a better way to say it. If it rounds the bottom of the trough west of us, then north it goes. Two, if the ridge is steep, I think that might help as well. We've had some clippers do just that. It's the ones that ride a flatter trough that end up shooting north of us as they approach. Anyway, as messy as that is, I think it's possible to get small clipper type snows out of that type of pattern. Not likely, perhaps. You could be right. 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You're not missing anything. Good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The following wave on the 26-27th is weak and slides to our south, but with colder air moving in it might be something to keep an eye on in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The following wave on the 26-27th is weak and slides to our south, but with colder air moving in it might be something to keep an eye on in future runs. maybe 28th'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Euro going for the d10 phase job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 like I was saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: like I was saying... Poor Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 With the 850 temps off TT this has to be snow right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro going for the d10 phase job. Bob, for giggles, is that snow out west and rain near I95, or all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro going for the d10 phase job. holy crap I had some "real work" to do then came back to see the end of the run and almost spit up my drink. LOL Doubt it but its nice to dream for another 12 hours I guess overall a pretty weenie run, teases us with 2 systems close enough to keep an eye on and then BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Bob, for giggles, is that snow out west and rain near I95, or all rain? Wet pasty snow 95 and west. Hour 246 is plastering too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Wet pasty snow 95 and west. Hour 246 is plastering too. Sure would blow away the concerns over striking out in both December and January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Here we go. Buckle up boys. The most important storm of Ji's life is upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Wet pasty snow 95 and west. Hour 246 is plastering too. good ol 33 degree wet snow paste bomb yea. Its fully phased and vertically stacked at our latitude so the close pass of the SLP doesnt hurt places 95 west at all. East of 95 its a bit too close but its day 10. Shame the euro has been a tease at d10 so much this year. I highly doubt any op run detail that far out but the trends today in general are good. Some potential hits are starting to show up, both on op runs and mixed into the ensembles. Its a baby step but an important first step. Lets just hope we continue progress in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Ok, for the experts, where is that cold air coming from on that D10 storm? No high to north, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sure would blow away the concerns over striking out in both December and January. But the data I looked at shows if we get a lot of snow in January our odds of having a better February then January decrease significantly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Ok, for the experts, where is that cold air coming from on that D10 storm? No high to north, correct? There is a weak HP to the north. But this is all for fun at this point anyways. That storm has about as much a chance as verifying as modeled as I do winning the power ball this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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