psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, kurtstack said: long range 18z gfs seems to set up for possible clipper parade - that would be acceptable More importantly by day 16 it displaces the PV from Greenland down towards Hudson Bay and heights are building over Greenland. If we want feb to really rock that's one route to get there. EPS might have been heading that way too but ended a day too soon to tell. PV was starting to retrograde southwest at the end. Euro weeklies hinted at it and weekly control actually pulled it off and resulted in a massive -nao weeks 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: More importantly by day 16 it displaces the PV from Greenland down towards Hudson Bay and heights are building over Greenland. If we want feb to really rock that's one route to get there. EPS might have been heading that way too but ended a day too soon to tell. PV was starting to retrograde southwest at the end. Euro weeklies hinted at it and weekly control actually pulled it off and resulted in a massive -nao weeks 4-6 18z GEFS has the same general idea with the PV. Also hints at an east based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I see you winterwxluvr. Put another one on the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z GEFS has the same general idea with the PV. Also hints at an east based -NAO. Yes it does. Best gefs run in a long time. That pattern is headed towards something good. And fits EPS and weeklies progression. Timing of PV displacement fits with effects from strat warm also. All in all some nice signs today I think. Would like to see a threat emerge soon. But keep this look and it's only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 We always get the big storm when the arctic airmass is on it's way out, not in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: The Para has been a weenie lover's dream this year! How accurate has it been? I think the Para is the "PRX" model on the NCEP model verification site: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ "PNA" stats are for North America. From what I've seen, the Para seems to have been doing a little better than the regular GFS, but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 44 minutes ago, Amped said: We always get the big storm when the arctic airmass is on it's way out, not in. I'm not talking about a specific storm yet. Trying to get the pattern right to get a storm first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I see you winterwxluvr. Put another one on the board? That pattern would have to spit out some clippers or we'd be a miserable bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The GFS/GEFS as modeled would be a severe weather event for southeast VA and the eastern Carolinas Monday. CMC still shows its mega coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 As many may know, there are some changes going on in the strat. From what I've seen and read, not a classic major sudden warming, but a warming nonetheless resulting in some sort of a disturbed polar vortex. Anyway, while looking at old images on my phone leading up to last year's bliz, I found an interesting pic. The top pic is from the 0z run of the Euro on 1/18/16. This morning I checked the same site and link from the 0z 1/18/17 run and have attached that pic below last year's. I would add that last year's event warmed similarly as this year's event has gone, but I didn't save any of those pics unfortunately. Am i saying expect similar results this year? Nope, just that changes are afoot and maybe there's a chance. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Wow. That is quite a 33 and rain storm on the CMC. 973 off of Hatteras. I guess thats good news because its the only model showing anything that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Wow. That is quite a 33 and rain storm on the CMC. 973 off of Hatteras. I guess thats good news because its the only model showing anything that strong. how many runs as it shown this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: how many runs as it shown this storm? I just went back and looked. It has had some form of a coastal or jumper to east of us for the past 6 runs. Not that it really means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 and CFS is back to blowtorching February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 50 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Wow. That is quite a 33 and rain storm on the CMC. 973 off of Hatteras. I guess thats good news because its the only model showing anything that strong. I would actually love me some GGEM up here. Yea the precip type algo shows rain but its because the surface is 34 degrees but temps are plenty cold enough at mid levels, and trust me from living here 11 years, at 1100 feet, I will be snowing if that happens as shows on the GGEM. That run had wet snow paste bomb written all over it. My favorite type of snow here because it doesn't blow all over as much. But the GGEM is a pretty awful model and its all by itself so not worth talking about much. Plus even the GGEM would be mostly rain if not all rain in the cities. Just no cold air around. The blocking sets up but its blocking in PAC air not cold air. Does us no good. The only way that works out is if it bombs just right and we get death banded and convective cool the column and heights crash under the upper low. Its a pretty tall order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 24 minutes ago, Ji said: and CFS is back to blowtorching February I don't really care at all what the CFS shows. I didn't care when it showed several runs in a row of a great February pattern and I don't care now that it flipped back to a torch, and I wont care when it shows cold again sometime soon. That thing is totally useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 37 minutes ago, Ji said: and CFS is back to blowtorching February First shot fired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The only useful thing I can say looking at how the CFS flips back and forth is there is a clear difference and its the NAO. Pretty much all the CFS runs are cold the first week of Feb. After that the CFS runs that develop a -NAO go on to run the table cold the rest of winter. The runs that the PV only displaces slightly then pulls right back up into Greenland the PNA ridge relaxes and we torch the rest of Feb. This seems a realistic progression to me. The tropical forcing that is leading to this +PNA looks to relax by around day 15. The SOI is tanking so that may mitigate full reversion to the previous base state but once the effects of the MJO diminish the PNA ridge will relax. THe SST in the north PAC just dont support a sustained favorable PNA pattern. I thought back before winter that our fate was tied to the atlantic helping out this year and I still think that. We waste day 6-10 because there is no cold in the CONUS. We probably go cold/dry day 10-15. After that we reach a crossroads. If the PV gets disrupted enough by this strat warm event (classic or not others can debate that) and we can get it to retrograte or drop out of Greenland and a -NAO can develop then I think we rock straight through Feb. If the PV simply wobbles then slides right back up there I think the PNA probably relaxes and if the NAO and AO is still raging positive at that time we revert to a pretty crappy pattern. Maybe not as bad as this, I doubt the PNA goes back very negative, but a neutral PNA/EPO with a raging positive AO/NAO isnt a very good look for us. Our fate may be tied to if we can get any help at all in the second half from the Atlantic side. Without that we can hope the MJO recycles back into better phases quickly but by then were talking late Feb into March. I guess that would make the 1999 analog thats been strong all year accurate. ETA: I believe that the NAO being key could be accurate, What I dont buy is the CFS ability to predict it. It flips back and forth every couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't really care at all what the CFS shows. I didn't care when it showed several runs in a row of a great February pattern and I don't care now that it flipped back to a torch, and I wont care when it shows cold again sometime soon. That thing is totally useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Just to highlight how useless the thing is, Ji is right the last run flipped warm again, but was also a snowier run then most of the "colder" runs the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: As many may know, there are some changes going on in the strat. From what I've seen and read, not a classic major sudden warming, but a warming nonetheless resulting in some sort of a disturbed polar vortex. Anyway, while looking at old images on my phone leading up to last year's bliz, I found an interesting pic. The top pic is from the 0z run of the Euro on 1/18/16. This morning I checked the same site and link from the 0z 1/18/17 run and have attached that pic below last year's. I would add that last year's event warmed similarly as this year's event has gone, but I didn't save any of those pics unfortunately. Am i saying expect similar results this year? Nope, just that changes are afoot and maybe there's a chance. Lol Mitch with the call for a historic Blizzard. So when can we expect it and how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Bob was correct, cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I would actually love me some GGEM up here. Yea the precip type algo shows rain but its because the surface is 34 degrees but temps are plenty cold enough at mid levels, and trust me from living here 11 years, at 1100 feet, I will be snowing if that happens as shows on the GGEM. That run had wet snow paste bomb written all over it. My favorite type of snow here because it doesn't blow all over as much. But the GGEM is a pretty awful model and its all by itself so not worth talking about much. Plus even the GGEM would be mostly rain if not all rain in the cities. Just no cold air around. The blocking sets up but its blocking in PAC air not cold air. Does us no good. The only way that works out is if it bombs just right and we get death banded and convective cool the column and heights crash under the upper low. Its a pretty tall order. ESP has been been somewhat on board with a fairly strong coastal low the last few days. But of course temps are the issue. Wouldn't surprise me if we see a paste job in the mountains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: Bob was correct, cold and dry well the first week of the "new pattern" is not cold enough and wet, then week 2 is cold/dry. After that hopefully things evolve into a better look but I think we might waste the first two weeks of this new pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: Bob was correct, cold and dry I am assuming this is in reference to next week? Think we will see some impulses in the northern stream through that period that the models don't pick up on well until closer in. Maybe squeak out and inch or 2 that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Historic futility absolutely on the table. We can do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just to highlight how useless the thing is, Ji is right the last run flipped warm again, but was also a snowier run then most of the "colder" runs the last few days. I know! I was laughing about this model being crappy and inconsistent! You expressed how I feel about it, but with much more emotion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 After looking over all the 0z stuff (YAWN) my take hasn't changed much. I stated yesterday what our problems are day 5-10. decent H5, crappy surface. Week two looks cold/dry, good job Bob on that call. Now were at Feb 2 and where do we go. That is the crossroads for the winter to me. The GEFS/EPS start to retrograde the PV out of greenland. If the effects of the warming can displace and weaken it significantly enough to get it displaced for any significant length we could set up a good pattern. THe effects of the MJO that is currently aiding our flip to a PNA ridge will be waning by then. I do think it circulates again but that wouldn't help until later Feb into March. If the PV regroups and consolidates over Greenland again as the PNA ridge weakens we probably revert to a crappy pattern. If the NAO can help a bit and we can hand off from the PNA to the NAO, a -AO/NAO and neutral PNA isnt a bad look. Then we could roll right through Feb, perhaps even hand back to the PNA later in the month if the NAO fades (I doubt its sustained this year). That would be our big finish scenario. Our total fail would be we waste week 1 with no cold. Week 2 is dry. Then the PNA relaxes and the NAO stays positive and we go zonal. Then were praying the MJO saves us in March ala 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Historic futility absolutely on the table. We can do this. ehh I don't have that to root for. I have had about 5" total if you add all the piddly crap together up here. 1973 and 1950 have the futility record here with 2.5" so I might as well pray for a late save because otherwise its just a crap year. I have only had 3 seasons with less then 10" in about 120 years of records I put together for this area. 1950, 73, and 2002. Hopefully I am not adding a 4th to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ehh I don't have that to root for. I have had about 5" total if you add all the piddly crap together up here. 1973 and 1950 have the futility record here with 2.5" so I might as well pray for a late save because otherwise its just a crap year. I have only had 3 seasons with less then 10" in about 120 years of records I put together for this area. 1950, 73, and 2002. Hopefully I am not adding a 4th to that list. In the snow anus that has been from southwest of DC to my part of Balt City, futility is on the menu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.