January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

09-10 is clearly the big storm champion and will probably hold the title for the rest of my time on earth and beyond. But there was a lot of thumb twiddling. Shortly after the Dec storm rain washed it all down the gutter on Christmas. Then nothing for a month followed by a 10 day epic window with 3 events and it was over on Feb 11th.

13/14 killed it start to finish. 4 straight months with little downtime. The mid Dec torch was the only thumb twiddling. The Feb storm dropped 12-20" for the vast majority so it still had a pretty big event. The taint kinda sucked but it was still a big storm during a pretty relentless winter of cold and snow. 

09-10 left me wanting more in Feb and Mar that never came. Missing the late Feb event was a bummer. By late March 14 I was pretty much tired of tracking snow and didn't care if another flake fell. 

A good analogy for the difference between the 2 years is 09-10 was a gourmet 4 course meal at the nicest restaurant in town  that you talk about forever while 13-14 was an all you can eat buffet of  your favorite comfort food with nothing gourmet but you leave stuffed to gills and need a good long nap afterwards. 

There was definitely more to track in 2014 but to me 2009/10 had more then you give it credit for. There was an early dec event that affected nw of 95. By the time that was over we were tracking the mid December window that become the hecs. Then yes a 20 day dead zone. But we were tracking Jan 30 from Jan 20th. Then that little event before the hecs. We did get to track a storm late feb and early march. Neither paid off but it was tracking. I was satisfied at the end of 2010. Doubt I'll ever see over 50" of snowpack here again either. 

[osfan24]

I felt like we had a bunch of little storms that overperformed leading up to the two blizzards in 2010. I'd do anything for another 2009-2010 winter, though admit that 13-14 was pretty good in a different way.

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

14/15 has a very different feel then this year. But some years that we ended up with a few inches going into feb the difference was just better luck. Maybe a wave ejects ahead of the main trough instead of coming out in one price back in mid December and we get a 2-4" snow. Maybe one of the waves after that cutter doesn't get suppressed. Maybe that little arctic wave early January is 50 miles south and you get 1-3". Or the coastal is slightly more amplified.  The difference between the .8 at bwi and 3.5" is as much luck or chaos as anything else. If looking for similar years I would eliminate years that had significant snow or sustained cold over multiple events. But you might be too specific in your analog selection. Jmo

But 2 weeks after that 95 date D.C. had two 4"+ events in a week. That's fairly rare. The northern half of our region at least got one mecs. It wasn't a bad period either but was a bit unlucky to only produce one snowfall in places. It wasn't as good as many other years on the list but not a disaster. 

Around this time in 2015 we had a similar disagreement. I'm not nearly as confident this year turns around as I was that year. I felt it was almost just a matter of time given the pattern we had been in. But I'm also not giving up on getting a decent snowfall or two either. If you are saying that our odds of hitting climo are low because we wasted half of winter you are totally right. But it does not mean it can't snow or we can't have a better second half. There are several years we went into feb with not much snow and ended up with at least a respectable total.  Then there are years like 58 where one fluke even in dec eliminates it from similar totals but had virtually nothing else until feb then was epic. Patterns flip.  I'm not saying we get blitzed but given the pattern change coming there is a chance we can eek out a late season save. 

I get the feeling you would like winters more front loaded and so would I. But as bob said our climo is so pathetic we have to take snow however it comes.  Can't punt feb and march just because  dec and Jan sucked. 

Two things. Winters at BWI with <1" of snow during December and January have particularly bad endings except for that one winter I cited. Since Dca currently has a total of .4" and Bwi .7", I believe Bob was referring to those types of winters (and was assuming the balance of the month fails too.) And although you can say it may have just been bad luck, I call it a bad pattern and leave it at that. Second, I am most familiar with Bwi snowfall stats. So what happened in 1/95 at DCA wouldn't be a consideration for me when evaluating the month of 1/95 when it shows up on an analog list. Remember,  it's an analog list and not a forecast, so when great prior years imby show up along with lousy ones, I don't get excited. But that's just me. 

[87storms]

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

09-10 is clearly the big storm champion and will probably hold the title for the rest of my time on earth and beyond. But there was a lot of thumb twiddling. Shortly after the Dec storm rain washed it all down the gutter on Christmas. Then nothing for a month followed by a 10 day epic window with 3 events and it was over on Feb 11th.

13/14 killed it start to finish. 4 straight months with little downtime. The mid Dec torch was the only thumb twiddling. The Feb storm dropped 12-20" for the vast majority so it still had a pretty big event. The taint kinda sucked but it was still a big storm during a pretty relentless winter of cold and snow. 

09-10 left me wanting more in Feb and Mar that never came. Missing the late Feb event was a bummer. By late March 14 I was pretty much tired of tracking snow and didn't care if another flake fell. 

A good analogy for the difference between the 2 years is 09-10 was a gourmet 4 course meal at the nicest restaurant in town  that you talk about forever while 13-14 was an all you can eat buffet of  your favorite comfort food with nothing gourmet but you leave stuffed to gills and need a good long nap afterwards. 

I actually think it could be longer before we see a 13/14 than a 09/10 even though 09/10 was more dramatic.  13/14 was very unusual in duration.  It felt like living in the upper Midwest...a legendary Winter as far as I'm concerned.

[mappy]

09/10 will always be my favorite winter, for obvious reasons. but 13/14 is #2. what a winter Parkton. 

[soadforecaster]

what a great convo to wake up to this morning. 09/10 vs 13/14. both years have great moments, but I feel like 13/14 had the more rarer moments. that year I lived in west chester pa. a few rare things I remember was the epic cold as some of the storms hit. not to often do you have temps drop the entire storm where its 20 degrees colder then when the storm started. I also had an ice storm that gave me .75 of ice. I remember watching the eagles game that year with that over performing snow storm. Philly at best was suppose to get 1-3" but end up over a foot. watching the game I saw white out conditions to the fact it was almost hard to even see the players while the game was going on. that year also was the first time I was able to enjoy below zero temps.

[WinterWxLuvr]

11-12 was my favorite 

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

There was definitely more to track in 2014 but to me 2009/10 had more then you give it credit for. There was an early dec event that affected nw of 95. By the time that was over we were tracking the mid December window that become the hecs. Then yes a 20 day dead zone. But we were tracking Jan 30 from Jan 20th. Then that little event before the hecs. We did get to track a storm late feb and early march. Neither paid off but it was tracking. I was satisfied at the end of 2010. Doubt I'll ever see over 50" of snowpack here again either. 

This.. and also I wasn't clear in what I was talking about last night. What I meant is that a repeat of 09/10 seven seasons later on this board would mean even longer and more intense tracking of the big 3 because the models are better and everyone is more experienced as the years go on. 

And to your early December storm we can add in the 1" of snow/sleet slop on 12/31/09. Given how many pages we go for that kind of system now, that would be another 5 days of tracking, lol. 

 

[midatlanticweather]

Another crazy thing, if I remember correctly, was that 13/14 had storms trend SOUTH on weather models (and then the actual storm did hit) and on top of us a few times. One time, it trended from New England to South of us on models! Maybe there were not many like that, but it just seemed that most storms would trend in our favor.

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

56 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

11-12 was my favorite 

Fortunately for you, then, 16-17 will likely surpass that and become you're new favorite.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Two things. Winters at BWI with <1" of snow during December and January have particularly bad endings except for that one winter I cited. Since Dca currently has a total of .4" and Bwi .7", I believe Bob was referring to those types of winters (and was assuming the balance of the month fails too.) And although you can say it may have just been bad luck, I call it a bad pattern and leave it at that. Second, I am most familiar with Bwi snowfall stats. So what happened in 1/95 at DCA wouldn't be a consideration for me when evaluating the month of 1/95 when it shows up on an analog list. Remember,  it's an analog list and not a forecast, so when great prior years imby show up along with lousy ones, I don't get excited. But that's just me. 

First let me be clear that my disagreement is nit picky and I am mostly just looking for good conversation, hopefully you take this as respectful because I value your input.  While there is a lot of truth to your "ground truth" argument, and persistence, which seems to be the two pillars to your selection of "like years" there is a danger is using IMBY ground results from something as finicky and fluky as snowfall as a sole basis for analog selection.  Of course when the winter is over what happened in my yard is the basis for how I judge the winter in terms of satisfaction to me.   But when evaluating a pattern and "potential" it is a bit different.  Look at the January 5-10 period this year.  The difference between a great pattern that leaves 6" of snow at BWI and what we got was due to bad luck in how specific vorts played off one another.  Get all the energy to come out with that front runner or a bit more amplitude with that second, really really minor differences, and we score a hit or maybe even two and were sitting here above climo right now like just like Richmond and New York.  Of course I care that we missed, but the atmosphere does not.  Those kind of differences are so minor its like a cow farted in the wrong direction in Kansas kind of stuff.  So was it a great pattern for Salisbury, and Atlantic City, and New York, and Richmond, and Boston, and an awful one for us just because the storm was 50 miles east of where we wanted?  If that storm is 5 mb deeper and comes a smidge west and you get 6" the pattern wasn't different in any substantive way.  

All that said, the majority of this winter has had some troubling pattern features.  I am not saying a healthy bit of skepticism isn't warranted.  I am not sold we do well.  The pattern looks better but I am waiting to see some signs that it will pay dividends with snow OTG and have not really seen that yet.  But purely from a statistical analysis point limiting analogs by being so selective to only produce a few years and also limiting them by a very fluky determinate like one locations snowfall results, makes the use of them as a predictor lower in terms of statistical significance.  Weather doesn't really operate on means and averages, but a whole lot of divergent results that get mushed together into an average.  You are right the total suckfest we have had is a bad thing and makes it much more likely we end badly then in years that we did well in December and January.  But we have also had years where we did well early then sucked late.  Look at 88, went into Feb 1 (which is about the half way point for snow climo here) with 20.2" and only got .2 the rest of the way.  The sword cuts both ways and persistence works more often then not but it's not universal.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, soadforecaster said:

what a great convo to wake up to this morning. 09/10 vs 13/14. both years have great moments, but I feel like 13/14 had the more rarer moments. that year I lived in west chester pa. a few rare things I remember was the epic cold as some of the storms hit. not to often do you have temps drop the entire storm where its 20 degrees colder then when the storm started. I also had an ice storm that gave me .75 of ice. I remember watching the eagles game that year with that over performing snow storm. Philly at best was suppose to get 1-3" but end up over a foot. watching the game I saw white out conditions to the fact it was almost hard to even see the players while the game was going on. that year also was the first time I was able to enjoy below zero temps.

I remember that wonderful December day.  Snow games abounded all over the NFL landscape.  Watching all those games while watching the snow pour outside my window, while putting up our tree made that one of my most cherished memories.

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First let me be clear that my disagreement is nit picky and I am mostly just looking for good conversation, hopefully you take this as respectful because I value your input.  While there is a lot of truth to your "ground truth" argument, and persistence, which seems to be the two pillars to your selection of "like years" there is a danger is using IMBY ground results from something as finicky and fluky as snowfall as a sole basis for analog selection.  Of course when the winter is over what happened in my yard is the basis for how I judge the winter in terms of satisfaction to me.   But when evaluating a pattern and "potential" it is a bit different.  Look at the January 5-10 period this year.  The difference between a great pattern that leaves 6" of snow at BWI and what we got was due to bad luck in how specific vorts played off one another.  Get all the energy to come out with that front runner or a bit more amplitude with that second, really really minor differences, and we score a hit or maybe even two and were sitting here above climo right now like just like Richmond and New York.  Of course I care that we missed, but the atmosphere does not.  Those kind of differences are so minor its like a cow farted in the wrong direction in Kansas kind of stuff.  So was it a great pattern for Salisbury, and Atlantic City, and New York, and Richmond, and Boston, and an awful one for us just because the storm was 50 miles east of where we wanted?  If that storm is 5 mb deeper and comes a smidge west and you get 6" the pattern wasn't different in any substantive way.  

All that said, the majority of this winter has had some troubling pattern features.  I am not saying a healthy bit of skepticism isn't warranted.  I am not sold we do well.  The pattern looks better but I am waiting to see some signs that it will pay dividends with snow OTG and have not really seen that yet.  But purely from a statistical analysis point limiting analogs by being so selective to only produce a few years and also limiting them by a very fluky determinate like one locations snowfall results, makes the use of them as a predictor lower in terms of statistical significance.  Weather doesn't really operate on means and averages, but a whole lot of divergent results that get mushed together into an average.  You are right the total suckfest we have had is a bad thing and makes it much more likely we end badly then in years that we did well in December and January.  But we have also had years where we did well early then sucked late.  Look at 88, went into Feb 1 (which is about the half way point for snow climo here) with 20.2" and only got .2 the rest of the way.  The sword cuts both ways and persistence works more often then not but it's not universal.  

Oh, I think it does.  And I believe it hates us.

[PDIII]

2 hours ago, soadforecaster said:

what a great convo to wake up to this morning. 09/10 vs 13/14. both years have great moments, but I feel like 13/14 had the more rarer moments. that year I lived in west chester pa. a few rare things I remember was the epic cold as some of the storms hit. not to often do you have temps drop the entire storm where its 20 degrees colder then when the storm started. I also had an ice storm that gave me .75 of ice. I remember watching the eagles game that year with that over performing snow storm. Philly at best was suppose to get 1-3" but end up over a foot. watching the game I saw white out conditions to the fact it was almost hard to even see the players while the game was going on. that year also was the first time I was able to enjoy below zero temps.

No way.  It doesnt get any rarer than 3 HECs

 

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Oh, I think it does.  And I believe it hates us.

It only hates DC. The rest of us are just fine. Lol. 

[psuhoffman]

Below is a list of all years that BWI went into Feb 1 with less then 3.5".  Avg before Feb 1 is 10.2 so that would be less than 34% of normal.  Definitely a significant amount below avg to that date.  The second column is snowfall after Feb 1.  Mean for BWI Feb 1 on is 9.9.  The mean for all years on the list before Feb 1 is 1.9 and after Feb 1 was 11.1.  

In any given year out of 133 years of records BWI should reach 6" after Feb 1 about 66% of the time.  9" or roughly mean 52% and 14" or 140% about 33% of the time.

In all 29 years that had less then 3.5" going into Feb, BWI reached 6" 19 times or 66%, 9" 15 times or 52%, and 14" 9 times or 31%.  In other words the chances of having a good Feb 1 on were not affected by any significant amount by the poor performance before Feb 1.  

I used 3.5" in order to get a significantly larger sample size.  My argument would be the difference between .8" and 3.5" is pretty minor in terms of the pattern and mostly due to chance.  However if we want to use a more identical sample and assume we get shut out the rest of January (likely but not a certainty) we can look at years with less than 1" going into Feb.  This gives us only 5 years.  Way too small to have any statistical significance but for arguments sake....

3/5 years went over 6" the rest of winter or 53%

2/5 managed 9" the rest of winter or 42%

1/5 managed 14" or more after Feb 1 or 21%.

I guess you could say using only 1" as the sample that our odds of a good second half of winter are decreased by about 10% over all years.  But with a sample of only 5 years that is a risky correlation to draw.  Either way I do not think the statistics argue that our chances of snow after Feb 1 are as significantly decreased by lack of snow before Feb 1 as we seem to think.  There seems to be way more chaos and chance month to month in the statistics then persistence.  

 

Less than 3.5
year
2011-12	1.3	0.5
2008-09	2.7	6.4
2006-07	0.9	10.1
2001-02	2.3	0.0
1997-98	1.3	2.1
1992-93	2.9	21.5
1991-92	2.2	1.9
1985-86	2.6	13.0
1975-76	2.4	9.1
1972-73	0.0	1.2
1971-72	2.1	11.9
1959-60	1.8	31.6
1958-59	2.6	1.4
1954-55	2.7	7.4
1949-50	0.5	0.2
1941-42	3.1	23.2
1937-38	2.2	5.4
1936-37	2.8	22.8
1931-32	1.5	2.7
1930-31	2.7	10.7
1928-29	1.0	11.2
1926-27	1.6	6.9
1923-24	2.1	31.2
1920-21	0.7	7.2
1918-19	1.0	3.0
1913-14	0.0	23.0
1899-00	3.2	22.5
1895-96	1.2	16.6
1893-94	3.4	16.7
mean	1.9	11.1

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

First let me be clear that my disagreement is nit picky and I am mostly just looking for good conversation, hopefully you take this as respectful because I value your input.  While there is a lot of truth to your "ground truth" argument, and persistence, which seems to be the two pillars to your selection of "like years" there is a danger is using IMBY ground results from something as finicky and fluky as snowfall as a sole basis for analog selection.  Of course when the winter is over what happened in my yard is the basis for how I judge the winter in terms of satisfaction to me.   But when evaluating a pattern and "potential" it is a bit different.  Look at the January 5-10 period this year.  The difference between a great pattern that leaves 6" of snow at BWI and what we got was due to bad luck in how specific vorts played off one another.  Get all the energy to come out with that front runner or a bit more amplitude with that second, really really minor differences, and we score a hit or maybe even two and were sitting here above climo right now like just like Richmond and New York.  Of course I care that we missed, but the atmosphere does not.  Those kind of differences are so minor its like a cow farted in the wrong direction in Kansas kind of stuff.  So was it a great pattern for Salisbury, and Atlantic City, and New York, and Richmond, and Boston, and an awful one for us just because the storm was 50 miles east of where we wanted?  If that storm is 5 mb deeper and comes a smidge west and you get 6" the pattern wasn't different in any substantive way.  

All that said, the majority of this winter has had some troubling pattern features.  I am not saying a healthy bit of skepticism isn't warranted.  I am not sold we do well.  The pattern looks better but I am waiting to see some signs that it will pay dividends with snow OTG and have not really seen that yet.  But purely from a statistical analysis point limiting analogs by being so selective to only produce a few years and also limiting them by a very fluky determinate like one locations snowfall results, makes the use of them as a predictor lower in terms of statistical significance.  Weather doesn't really operate on means and averages, but a whole lot of divergent results that get mushed together into an average.  You are right the total suckfest we have had is a bad thing and makes it much more likely we end badly then in years that we did well in December and January.  But we have also had years where we did well early then sucked late.  Look at 88, went into Feb 1 (which is about the half way point for snow climo here) with 20.2" and only got .2 the rest of the way.  The sword cuts both ways and persistence works more often then not but it's not universal.  

No, I see your points. In addition to the stats, I believe in the seasonal patterns ruling the roost and if that pattern has a tendency to miss a particular location(s), then so be it and we're stuck with it. So far this season, the pattern, for whatever variety of reasons, has chosen to miss DCA/BWI with snow. Hence, until it does snow meaningfully, I will assume it will not regardless of what the models say. Meaning, it could go through the rest of the season, or it could not. But Bob's original point that I picked up on was that winters with really bad Decembers and January (I think less than 1" total qualifies), did not make it to climo and that was the case at BWI except for 59/60.

[psuhoffman]

Back to looking at what is going on now...I can't add much to what Bob said about the weeklies.  Good run.  I could nitpick some things but overall the mean trough stays in the east straight into March.  Best windows seem to be second week of Feb then Late Feb into March.  But none of it looks like an "oh no" period.  There would be chances in that pattern throughout.  

Looking more into the realistic range, the pattern really begins to break down in the next few days as the mean ridge in the east starts to lift north and actually becomes a pretty good block for a time over the Hudson bay then migrates west into western Canada.  Unfortunately the block does us no good because the CONUS is flooded with warm air and so the block is not blocking in any cold.  Yes it will help with storm track but unless we pull off the miracle track and bombogenesis scenario (the famed create your own cold that works oh so often here) then we will just be facing our typical 33/rain.   Shame, its not a bad pattern at all, usually give me a retrograding block that tracks west of Hudson bay and I will say YES.  Oh well.  

So we look to waste about a week of what at H5 looks pretty good because of a really awful antecedent airmass.  After that as heights remain lower over the CONUS cold does slowly build but without or until we get some cross polar flow its not going to be anything arctic in origin.  Were talking home grown cold.  We can work with that though in early Feb.  However, after a week with a couple systems that with any cold would have been promising, we get a trough to dig into the east but with a raging positive NAO and a positive tilt so were likely looking at cold dry.  So now we have a great storm patter wasted by temps, then a week of cold/dry IMO.  Were definitely finding ways to suck this winter.  

After that is when things COULD get more favorable.  IF this strat warm that looks real to me can do its dirty work and help with some blocking this could become a great pattern quick.  Without that, we could have some chances if we could get the trough to pull back some and get some wave systems along the cold boundary.  Another option is to time up a system during periods where the trough relaxes.  The more crazy option is I do see the end of week 2 some indications the PV over Greenland is sinking south, get that thing to dump into the trough, raise heights above it(kind like the euro weekly control does) and things get crazy good quick.  There are several paths to victory.  The key is get the cold and trough to generally stay in the east.  If that is a transient thing were in trouble.  Dry isnt going to last for weeks and weeks on end IMO.  We worry about cold/dry a lot but in reality its rare we get an extended period of sustained cold and don't score some snow.  If we actually get a 4-5 week period of cold I think something will eventually come just out of law of averages.  

In summary we are probably still waiting another 2 weeks.  I hate saying that but short a miracle like the 12z GGEM just pulled with one of these systems bombing out and tracking perfectly, we are in trouble.  The GEFS and EPS, despite generally good looks at h5 have absolutely no snow signal at all.  Almost amazing to have their h5 look and nothing on the snow means.  And its not just a right here problem, there is really no signal for snow anywhere outside New England.  They are indicating the first week is wet, and the second dry, and doing it universally enough to believe it.  The weeklies agree.  Their snow mean wasnt amazing, about 7-10" across the area, but it comes almost entirely in two periods, around Feb 10 and the first week of March.  They are pretty much a shutout until then.  Hopefully as we move ahead a real tangible threat starts to show itself.  The pattern is close enough that something could pop up but I am losing faith that happens until Feb.  

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No, I see your points. In addition to the stats, I believe in the seasonal patterns ruling the roost and if that pattern has a tendency to miss a particular location(s), then so be it and we're stuck with it. So far this season, the pattern, for whatever variety of reasons, has chosen to miss DCA/BWI with snow. Hence, until it does snow meaningfully, I will assume it will not regardless of what the models say. Meaning, it could go through the rest of the season, or it could not. But Bob's original point that I picked up on was that winters with really bad Decembers and January (I think less than 1" total qualifies), did not make it to climo and that was the case at BWI except for 59/60.

You can see my list above posted of all sucky years, but of the 5 years with less then 1" going into Feb only 1 reached climo 1913-14.  But 2006-7 had over 10" the rest of the way, not bad, and 1920-21 at least got over 7 so we had something.  Only 2/5 remained total suck fests the rest of the way.  But yea getting to climo when you totally punt 50% of winter is a steep climb.  

[PaEasternWX]

From: [email protected] Found it interesting

Quote

Honestly, the GGEM pulled off what I thought the 12z GFS was going to do. It (GFS) made the move "down south" to try to pop a coastal, but then abandoned that notion for the sake of reinforcing the primary. 

At the very least, it (GGEM) shows the potential for such a solution - albeit a smaller weighted potential, given that it is the CMC after all. 

One big difference from it to the others is the positioning of Canadian High Pressure, which is an area where it struggles least. 

So.....
 

 

[mdsnowlover]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No, I see your points. In addition to the stats, I believe in the seasonal patterns ruling the roost and if that pattern has a tendency to miss a particular location(s), then so be it and we're stuck with it. So far this season, the pattern, for whatever variety of reasons, has chosen to miss DCA/BWI with snow. Hence, until it does snow meaningfully, I will assume it will not regardless of what the models say. Meaning, it could go through the rest of the season, or it could not. But Bob's original point that I picked up on was that winters with really bad Decembers and January (I think less than 1" total qualifies), did not make it to climo and that was the case at BWI except for 59/60.

well said and totally agree, I live 10 miles from you approximately.

[87storms]

15 hours ago, gymengineer said:

And that's where local differences come into play when using any analogs. Did you notice 1/95 for DCA? 4" storm on 1/28/95. 

For swaths of DC metro region, a two week period from 1/95-2/95 ended with 10"+ from just two storms. A repeat of that period is no failure at all for this area. 

I remember one of those storms produced several inches of road covering powdery snow.  I think it was on a Friday or Saturday.  I remember bc I was coming back from my hs bball game.  Think an upper level low caused it.

[psuhoffman]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

If 1/95 wasn't number 1 and 4 on that list,  I might start getting excited! Lol

1960 is now number one. 1978 number two. 

[psuhoffman]

Para gfs likes the PV drop in idea. 

[midatlanticweather]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Para gfs likes the PV drop in idea. 

 

2

The Para has been a weenie lover's dream this year! How accurate has it been?

 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

The Para has been a weenie lover's dream this year! How accurate has it been?

 

Haven't seen any scores. I was just observing that possibility though. I doubt it happens. 

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

The Para has been a weenie lover's dream this year! How accurate has it been?

 

the OP GFS has been the best model this winter. It hasnt shown us any snow and we have gotten zero snow. The euro and GGEM have given us plenty of fake digital snow

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Ji said:

the OP GFS has been the best model this winter. It hasnt shown us any snow and we have gotten zero snow. The euro and GGEM have given us plenty of fake digital snow

Pretty sure the morning of 1/2, the GFS pounded us for the 1/7 system.  Next run, it was pretty much gone.

[SnowGoose69]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Haven't seen any scores. I was just observing that possibility though. I doubt it happens. 

I think through 120 hours the PARA has verified better than the current GFS.  The PARA NAM has been brutal.

[kurtstack]

long range 18z gfs seems to set up for possible clipper parade - that would be acceptable