January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[das]

If we are going to be flooded with Pac air from fast zonal flow, if you want to avoid a massive torch /raises hand/, this is what you want to see.  At least source region is running cool.

[caviman2201]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Good point. I'm not sure how much bad luck is involved though. It's not been good by any stretch. But we had a workable mid December period and a pretty good early January window and missed every shot. Places in almost every direction are at least close to climo on snow. We're in the hole.  Some of that's rotten luck. But I can't discount it either. I will say the coming pattern looks more promising so we have that at least. 

In the hole indeed... brutal:

[mitchnick]

Seeing the ensemble mean of the euro on day 8, I can't help but think there are a few big hits among the members. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017011612&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017011612&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Seeing the ensemble mean of the euro on day 8, I can't help but think there are a few big hits among the members. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017011612&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017011612&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0

I think I saw 4 or 5 that had some snow. Nothing I would call big though.

[mitchnick]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I think I saw 4 or 5 that had some snow. Nothing I would call big though.

Geez, this winter isn't even giving us any fantasies. 

[CAPE]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Geez, this winter isn't even giving us any fantasies. 

I just looked again- looks like 10 with some snow somewhere in our region, and most of those would be 2 inches or less. A few that are in the moderate category.

[showmethesnow]

All I can say is... Interesting pattern evolution on the 18Z GEFS. Think we can probably safely toss this run out in regards to the long range.

[Bob Chill]

Another good weeklies run. Best look is end of week 3 through 4 with a decent pac and atl. Nice signal for a ridge bridge over the top pressing into GL. We lose the Atl but the pac looks good basically from week 3-7 and end of Feb into March  is a decent winter pattern in the east. 

The one thing the weeklies have shown the last 3-4 runs is a steady favorable long duration pac pattern. Aleutian low/-epo ridge never goes away once it establishes. The month of Feb with a nino pattern is hard to not like. Lol. 

It's going to be really hard to hit climo if Jan ends up virtually snowless. Looking back through the last 40 years, there are very few if any cases hitting climo when DJ both crap the bed 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another good weeklies run. Best look is end of week 3 through 4 with a decent pac and atl. Nice signal for a ridge bridge over the top pressing into GL. We lose the Atl but the pac looks good basically from week 3-7 and end of Feb into March  is a decent winter pattern in the east. 

The one thing the weeklies have shown the last 3-4 runs is a steady favorable long duration pac pattern. Aleutian low/-epo ridge never goes away once it establishes. The month of Feb with a nino pattern is hard to not like. Lol. 

It's going to be really hard to hit climo if Jan ends up virtually snowless. Looking back through the last 40 years, there are very few if any cases hitting climo when DJ both crap the bed 

I like the look. Not much to add. Like you said the Pac gets right and stays that way. Initially it looks cold and dry, but by the end of the first week of Feb there should be legit storm chances outside of a dry clipper. I suppose there is a slight chance of something the last few days of Jan as we transition to the big ridge out west. Maybe we can get lucky there, but low probability for now.

[frd]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another good weeklies run. Best look is end of week 3 through 4 with a decent pac and atl. Nice signal for a ridge bridge over the top pressing into GL. We lose the Atl but the pac looks good basically from week 3-7 and end of Feb into March  is a decent winter pattern in the east. 

The one thing the weeklies have shown the last 3-4 runs is a steady favorable long duration pac pattern. Aleutian low/-epo ridge never goes away once it establishes. The month of Feb with a nino pattern is hard to not like. Lol. 

It's going to be really hard to hit climo if Jan ends up virtually snowless. Looking back through the last 40 years, there are very few if any cases hitting climo when DJ both crap the bed 

Bob,  this seems to fit in to what I mentioned earlier today,  that the MJO may re-emerge back in the favorable phases later in Feb after visting phases 1 and 2 prior. 

Also your right about climo, it would take a MECS or even a HECS to reach that, of course the potential is there is we get a favorable pattern lastomg into the beginning of March , or longer.  Another thing to watch again is the ultimate end result from any SSW , if it occurs,  and at the end of the month we shoudl have another go at something up there.  

At least things appear to be getitng more interesting. 

  

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another good weeklies run. Best look is end of week 3 through 4 with a decent pac and atl. Nice signal for a ridge bridge over the top pressing into GL. We lose the Atl but the pac looks good basically from week 3-7 and end of Feb into March  is a decent winter pattern in the east. 

The one thing the weeklies have shown the last 3-4 runs is a steady favorable long duration pac pattern. Aleutian low/-epo ridge never goes away once it establishes. The month of Feb with a nino pattern is hard to not like. Lol. 

It's going to be really hard to hit climo if Jan ends up virtually snowless. Looking back through the last 40 years, there are very few if any cases hitting climo when DJ both crap the bed 

The only winter to do it at Bwi was 59/60 when November and December reported 0 and January had 1.5". The season ended up with a miraculous 34.1". That said, you watch JB pull that winter out in the coming weeks.  Just watch.

Otoh, every other winter at Bwi with similar December and January snow droughts ended catastrophic.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The only winter to do it at Bwi was 59/60 when November and December reported 0 and January had 1.5". The season ended up with a miraculous 34.1". That said, you watch JB pull that winter out in the coming weeks.  Just watch.

Otoh, every other winter at Bwi with similar December and January snow droughts ended catastrophic.

If the pac cooperates similar to the weeklies look then catastrophic should be avoided. This winter has had the feel of sub climo since it began though. I've conceded to just trying to avoid a compete disaster. The last 2 winters have sucked in the tracking dept. Payback for long streaks of multiple events the 2 prior I suppose. I miss the 13-14 vibe for sure. That was the best tracking winter basically ever. It might not have hit totals like 02-03 or 09-10 but man was it busy. I'm up to my eyeballs in boredom with weather this winter. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

So pretty much like last year, huh?  It took a miracle storm last year to hit climo, which has magical appeal that I don't understand, and allowed many to proclaim it a great winter.

I'd happily settle for coming up short of avg if I could get multiple events and cold to go along with it.

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If the pac cooperates similar to the weeklies look then catastrophic should be avoided. This winter has had the feel of sub climo since it began though. I've conceded to just trying to avoid a compete disaster. The last 2 winters have sucked in the tracking dept. Payback for long streaks of multiple events the 2 prior I suppose. I miss the 13-14 vibe for sure. That was the best tracking winter basically ever. It might not have hit totals like 02-03 or 09-10 but man was it busy. I'm up to my eyeballs in boredom with weather this winter. 

 

Favorite quote that season was that teh atmosphere could fart and it would snow! Memorable for sure!

 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Another good weeklies run. Best look is end of week 3 through 4 with a decent pac and atl. Nice signal for a ridge bridge over the top pressing into GL. We lose the Atl but the pac looks good basically from week 3-7 and end of Feb into March  is a decent winter pattern in the east. 

The one thing the weeklies have shown the last 3-4 runs is a steady favorable long duration pac pattern. Aleutian low/-epo ridge never goes away once it establishes. The month of Feb with a nino pattern is hard to not like. Lol. 

It's going to be really hard to hit climo if Jan ends up virtually snowless. Looking back through the last 40 years, there are very few if any cases hitting climo when DJ both crap the bed 

December and January are gone so what can you do...if we get 15" in February that's a great month even if it means we fall short of climo. To me as I age each event and month is its own unique thing vs. the total winter anymore. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

If the pac cooperates similar to the weeklies look then catastrophic should be avoided. This winter has had the feel of sub climo since it began though. I've conceded to just trying to avoid a compete disaster. The last 2 winters have sucked in the tracking dept. Payback for long streaks of multiple events the 2 prior I suppose. I miss the 13-14 vibe for sure. That was the best tracking winter basically ever. It might not have hit totals like 02-03 or 09-10 but man was it busy. I'm up to my eyeballs in boredom with weather this winter. 

I'm with you and Clark....getting there is half the fun. BUT, you have "to actually get there" to make it fun. Tracking without results is just like foreplay....you can guess the rest. It's amazing sometimes to go into the NE thread and as they get closer to an event and the models seemingly are honing in on a decent snow event 3-4 days out, it actually snows.  Us, just the opposite except for one of the rare magic winters llike 13/14.

Well, if it's 2/15 and we still don't have any snow,  then let's just go for broke and let this year for BWI be a record snow drought year following the winter with the record largest snowfall. Quintessential back to back Mid Atlantic winters.

[Amped]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think I saw 4 or 5 that had some snow. Nothing I would call big though.

Thats a lot considering there's no cold air. Only hope is we luck out under the 500mb low and get a couple inches of slop after an epic rain and windstorm.

 

[Bob Chill]

58 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

December and January are gone so what can you do...if we get 15" in February that's a great month even if it means we fall short of climo. To me as I age each event and month is its own unique thing vs. the total winter anymore. 

Agreed. If my yard gets 4+ events in Feb totalling 10-15" I'll be thrilled and consider it a huge win. 

I'm with wnwxluvr. Let's have a multiple event feb-mar instead of a one hit wonder. I'm already looking forward to the whining and complaining about how March snow sucks because it melts quick on the heels of a disaster prime low sun angle shutout. Snow in our part of the MA is always a gift and not a given. Being selective is over the top weird. Lol

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. If my yard gets 4+ events in Feb totalling 10-15" I'll be thrilled and consider it a huge win. 

I'm with wnwxluvr. Let's have a multiple event feb-mar instead of a one hit wonder. I'm already looking forward to the whining and complaining about how March snow sucks because it melts quick on the heels of a disaster prime low sun angle shutout. Snow in our part of the MA is always a gift and not a given. Being selective is over the top weird. Lol

In reality we have been pretty spoiled over the past 7 years. Even with an overall fail winter last year we score a monster blizzard. I was saying before this winter started that we were due a bad winter. Not due to any science. It is just the law of averages for our area. I will say that this winter is not a fail yet though. We could end up scoring a big Feb and March storm and break climo again. And maybe that will be how winter goes for our area in the future? We score on bigger events instead of extended cold and stormy.

As a side note I agree with your day 10 assessment of a dry pattern. And if you only looked at the 500 anomalies on the EPS you would be salivating a little bit at range. Then you look at the temp anomalies and get slapped back into reality again. The GEFS is interesting in the long range at least. You gotta have the cold to have snow.

[snowfan]

I'd just like a moderate 4-8" snowfall that stuck around for a week w cold temps. That's not too much to ask.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Otoh, every other winter at Bwi with similar December and January snow droughts ended catastrophic.

This isn't true- 1941-42 & 2014-15 are the first two that come to mind.

Edit: I still don't get why people prefer a bunch of little events over a HECS. This region doesn't do snowcover well at all. But I'll take whatever I can get.

[gymengineer]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

If the pac cooperates similar to the weeklies look then catastrophic should be avoided. This winter has had the feel of sub climo since it began though. I've conceded to just trying to avoid a compete disaster. The last 2 winters have sucked in the tracking dept. Payback for long streaks of multiple events the 2 prior I suppose. I miss the 13-14 vibe for sure. That was the best tracking winter basically ever. It might not have hit totals like 02-03 or 09-10 but man was it busy. I'm up to my eyeballs in boredom with weather this winter. 

I know you keep on saying that about 13/14, but I think with the experience and access to models you have now, you would be up to your eyeballs in fun in a repeat of 09/10 as well :). There's something amazing about pulling in a 20"+ storm from the long range to the medium range to the short range and to the day of--- it's a much longer period of chasing just for one event. And the best part of the 12/09 storm is that the pattern signaled big storm even though the models lost it/suppressed it in mid-range. That was a Wes master-class in pattern before verbatim model output. LWX didn't even raise a Winter Storm Watch until Thursday afternoon- less than 30 hours before the snow started. 

And then to be able to do that all again starting in late January for the 2/5-6/10 chase....!! And in the physical exhaustion of shoveling out of the 2/5-6/10, BOOM-- the last blizzard with its myriad of forecasting challenges in the short term across our region. Overall, less events than 13/14 for sure. But I vouch for a season with three historic storms because it's just a once-in-a-lifetime *forecasting* season as well.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The only winter to do it at Bwi was 59/60 when November and December reported 0 and January had 1.5". The season ended up with a miraculous 34.1". That said, you watch JB pull that winter out in the coming weeks.  Just watch.

Otoh, every other winter at Bwi with similar December and January snow droughts ended catastrophic.

Funny you should bring up 59/60. 1960 is the number 2 analog on the ncep list today. Lol. 1958, 1978, and 1979 all shows up also. 

[mitchnick]

55 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

This isn't true- 1941-42 & 2014-15 are the first two that come to mind.

Edit: I still don't get why people prefer a bunch of little events over a HECS. This region doesn't do snowcover well at all. But I'll take whatever I can get.

Bob was referring to basic shutouts for December and January like this year (Dca & Bwi both have <1" since 12/1).  41/42 had 3.1" during those 2 months and 14/15 had over 6" those two months. Those years were "snowy" compared to this year! Lol

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Funny you should bring up 59/60. 1960 is the number 2 analog on the ncep list today. Lol. 1958, 1978, and 1979 all shows up also. 

If 1/95 wasn't number 1 and 4 on that list,  I might start getting excited! Lol

[gymengineer]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If 1/95 wasn't number 1 and 4 on that list,  I might start getting excited! Lol

And that's where local differences come into play when using any analogs. Did you notice 1/95 for DCA? 4" storm on 1/28/95. 

For swaths of DC metro region, a two week period from 1/95-2/95 ended with 10"+ from just two storms. A repeat of that period is no failure at all for this area. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Bob was referring to basic shutouts for December and January like this year (Dca & Bwi both have <1" since 12/1).  41/42 had 3.1" during those 2 months and 14/15 had over 6" those two months. Those years were "snowy" compared to this year! Lol

You're right,  I actually forgot BWI had 5.9" in January 2015. I thought there was only the 1/6 clipper, I don't remember the other events. Probably confused it with my backyard which was 100% shutout until Valentine's Day. My general point was just that you can still have a dumpster fire at this point and still be above average in the end. Most likely it won't happen though. :-(

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And that's where local differences come into play when using any analogs. Did you notice 1/95 for DCA? 4" storm on 1/28/95. 

For swaths of DC metro region, a two week period from 1/95-2/95 ended with 10"+ from just two storms. A repeat of that period is no failure at all for this area. 

If my memory is correct,  I had around .5" (if I'm right) while observing the clear line along the nw horizon. Ugly cutoff.  But all Bwi had of consequence that winter was the 2/95 event. And we were lucky with that as just south of Rt. 50 in Annapolis had nothing. I remember driving down there just to check out the rain/snow line. Pathetic hobby.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

I know you keep on saying that about 13/14, but I think with the experience and access to models you have now, you would be up to your eyeballs in fun in a repeat of 09/10 as well :). There's something amazing about pulling in a 20"+ storm from the long range to the medium range to the short range and to the day of--- it's a much longer period of chasing just for one event. And the best part of the 12/09 storm is that the pattern signaled big storm even though the models lost it/suppressed it in mid-range. That was a Wes master-class in pattern before verbatim model output. LWX didn't even raise a Winter Storm Watch until Thursday afternoon- less than 30 hours before the snow started. 

And then to be able to do that all again starting in late January for the 2/5-6/10 chase....!! And in the physical exhaustion of shoveling out of the 2/5-6/10, BOOM-- the last blizzard with its myriad of forecasting challenges in the short term across our region. Overall, less events than 13/14 for sure. But I vouch for a season with three historic storms because it's just a once-in-a-lifetime *forecasting* season as well.

09-10 is clearly the big storm champion and will probably hold the title for the rest of my time on earth and beyond. But there was a lot of thumb twiddling. Shortly after the Dec storm rain washed it all down the gutter on Christmas. Then nothing for a month followed by a 10 day epic window with 3 events and it was over on Feb 11th.

13/14 killed it start to finish. 4 straight months with little downtime. The mid Dec torch was the only thumb twiddling. The Feb storm dropped 12-20" for the vast majority so it still had a pretty big event. The taint kinda sucked but it was still a big storm during a pretty relentless winter of cold and snow. 

09-10 left me wanting more in Feb and Mar that never came. Missing the late Feb event was a bummer. By late March 14 I was pretty much tired of tracking snow and didn't care if another flake fell. 

A good analogy for the difference between the 2 years is 09-10 was a gourmet 4 course meal at the nicest restaurant in town  that you talk about forever while 13-14 was an all you can eat buffet of  your favorite comfort food with nothing gourmet but you leave stuffed to gills and need a good long nap afterwards. 

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Bob was referring to basic shutouts for December and January like this year (Dca & Bwi both have <1" since 12/1).  41/42 had 3.1" during those 2 months and 14/15 had over 6" those two months. Those years were "snowy" compared to this year! Lol

14/15 has a very different feel then this year. But some years that we ended up with a few inches going into feb the difference was just better luck. Maybe a wave ejects ahead of the main trough instead of coming out in one price back in mid December and we get a 2-4" snow. Maybe one of the waves after that cutter doesn't get suppressed. Maybe that little arctic wave early January is 50 miles south and you get 1-3". Or the coastal is slightly more amplified.  The difference between the .8 at bwi and 3.5" is as much luck or chaos as anything else. If looking for similar years I would eliminate years that had significant snow or sustained cold over multiple events. But you might be too specific in your analog selection. Jmo

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

If 1/95 wasn't number 1 and 4 on that list,  I might start getting excited! Lol

But 2 weeks after that 95 date D.C. had two 4"+ events in a week. That's fairly rare. The northern half of our region at least got one mecs. It wasn't a bad period either but was a bit unlucky to only produce one snowfall in places. It wasn't as good as many other years on the list but not a disaster. 

Around this time in 2015 we had a similar disagreement. I'm not nearly as confident this year turns around as I was that year. I felt it was almost just a matter of time given the pattern we had been in. But I'm also not giving up on getting a decent snowfall or two either. If you are saying that our odds of hitting climo are low because we wasted half of winter you are totally right. But it does not mean it can't snow or we can't have a better second half. There are several years we went into feb with not much snow and ended up with at least a respectable total.  Then there are years like 58 where one fluke even in dec eliminates it from similar totals but had virtually nothing else until feb then was epic. Patterns flip.  I'm not saying we get blitzed but given the pattern change coming there is a chance we can eek out a late season save. 

I get the feeling you would like winters more front loaded and so would I. But as bob said our climo is so pathetic we have to take snow however it comes.  Can't punt feb and march just because  dec and Jan sucked.