January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A ridge in western Canada Yukon isn't a bad spot.  No nao help but it's a decent pattern. After that if we hold the pna ridge and get any nao help later on feb could be very good. 

I was just saying in the SE forum that my only concern the last 3-4 days on the ensembles and some operational runs has been the PNA ridge occasionally looks too far west to me.  

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Long range 18z gfs looks pretty good.  Couple chances day 12-16

eps is still showing a nice look there too. I suspect as it gets closer something will materialize as a real threat. 

18z gefs show an above normal 2m temp mean through the end of the run. Personally,  I doubt that the "pattern change" will come easy, or as easy as the models are showing.  I hope I'm just being paranoid. 

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z gefs show an above normal 2m temp mean through the end of the run. Personally,  I doubt that the "pattern change" will come easy, or as easy as the models are showing.  I hope I'm just being paranoid. 

The cold air in the Day 10-13 range is relatively stale cold air.  And also consider this is the period where many cities have their lowest daily normals it takes more to get a below average departure than it does on 2/10 

[Ender]

8 hours ago, RDM said:

Yup - Remaining optimistic the remaining 8 weeks of normal potential comes through for us (minus the week coming up).  I'm gonna remove the snow blade from my Kubota.  Don't want to jinx anything.  Leaving it on is the surest insurance we WON'T get anything plowable... 

I remain confident that February into at least mid-March will be impressively cold. Not Feb/Mar 2015 impressive, it's hard to beat a once in a 134 year February, but still cold. I've seen little in the last couple weeks to make me doubt that at least the first few weeks of February won't end up quite cold. Now, snow... 

It's interesting this winter is the second in a row with fairly high QBO index values. Well, no, just plain high. I don't see any prior back to back years with Oct - Dec values of >10. In fact, outside of the late 1940s, I'm not finding any consecutive years with any three month period wherein the QBO was either +5 or -5 for all three corresponding months in the two years.

That led me to do some more digging and suffice it to say, I think February will certainly have something to plow. One other detail stands out, and this one surprised me, if you want a cold end to winter around here then get the QBO to switch from W to E during the Nov - Feb period. However if you want snow, the very last thing you want to see is a QBO flip from November to Feb. That'd be a flip from positive to negative or negative to positive. All but one of 15 of those such years were basically awful as they averaged 2.6" in February. The one spectacular February (2003) was a QBO flip thats best described as "slow and gentle" in magnitude. 

Anyhow, hope to finish reviewing these tables tomorrow.  

[poolz1]

12z eps has a prime ridge position for the +PNA , IMO.  By day 15 we are basically 3 or 4 days into the shift...the negative 2m t departures will not take long to form in the east.  I don't have the knowledge to fully understand the implications of the SOI and todays number is not in (that i can find).  Looking at the MSLP it appears todays value should be in the negative range...according to the LR euro, we should continue to see negative bursts into the extended range.  Ridge on the west coat of Canada, PV is getting pushed around, SOI..There is something very different about the pattern coming up...cautiously optimistic for the first half of Feb!

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ender said:

I remain confident that February into at least mid-March will be impressively cold. Not Feb/Mar 2015 impressive, it's hard to beat a once in a 134 year February, but still cold. I've seen little in the last couple weeks to make me doubt that at least the first few weeks of February won't end up quite cold. Now, snow... 

It's interesting this winter is the second in a row with fairly high QBO index values. Well, no, just plain high. I don't see any prior back to back years with Oct - Dec values of >10. In fact, outside of the late 1940s, I'm not finding any consecutive years with any three month period wherein the QBO was either +5 or -5 for all three corresponding months in the two years.

That led me to do some more digging and suffice it to say, I think February will certainly have something to plow. One other detail stands out, and this one surprised me, if you want a cold end to winter around here then get the QBO to switch from W to E during the Nov - Feb period. However if you want snow, the very last thing you want to see is a QBO flip from November to Feb. That'd be a flip from positive to negative or negative to positive. All but one of 15 of those such years were basically awful as they averaged 2.6" in February. The one spectacular February (2003) was a QBO flip thats best described as "slow and gentle" in magnitude. 

Anyhow, hope to finish reviewing these tables tomorrow.  

So you think this winter will have quite the rear-Ender! I hope you're right.

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I was just saying in the SE forum that my only concern the last 3-4 days on the ensembles and some operational runs has been the PNA ridge occasionally looks too far west to me.  

Could be. I guess I'm not sweating specifics at that range. Plus I'm pretty far west so I'll take my chances on that over dry. If I was on the coastal plain I might feel different. But I also think things are still loading up not breaking down towards the end of the run.  Given the total destruction of conus cold coming we might have to be patient. I think that's why snow means are pathetic despite a decent mean pattern day 10-15. And pathetic everywhere not just here. It might take some work to get temps back where they need to be to support a snowstorm. But I really think this colder look will have some legs and not he a one week transient look. 

[showmethesnow]

10 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I was just saying in the SE forum that my only concern the last 3-4 days on the ensembles and some operational runs has been the PNA ridge occasionally looks too far west to me.  

 

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Could be. I guess I'm not sweating specifics at that range. Plus I'm pretty far west so I'll take my chances on that over dry. If I was on the coastal plain I might feel different. But I also think things are still loading up not breaking down towards the end of the run.  Given the total destruction of conus cold coming we might have to be patient. I think that's why snow means are pathetic despite a decent mean pattern day 10-15. And pathetic everywhere not just here. It might take some work to get temps back where they need to be to support a snowstorm. But I really think this colder look will have some legs and not he a one week transient look. 

Don't mean to borrow trouble but this is my biggest fear. We have seen time and again this winter where the models in the longer range put the mean trough in a favorable location for the east coast only to pull it westward as the lead time shortens. So a western shift of the PNA and the subsequent shift of the trough, though disappointing, would not surprise me.

[BristowWx]

Running the 6z GEFS 2m temp loop through 384 shows nothing promising right to 31 Jan.  Even Western Canada looks fairly warm.  And our region is mostly mild.  But then I read LC from last night and it was encouraging.  

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Don't mean to borrow trouble but this is my biggest fear. We have seen time and again this winter where the models in the longer range put the mean trough in a favorable location for the east coast only to pull it westward as the lead time shortens. So a western shift of the PNA and the subsequent shift of the trough, though disappointing, would not surprise me.

That -EPO looks pretty impressive on latest eps. Not worth sweating details like precisely where the western ridge axis may lie. Looks fine to me as modeled. It probably wont be stationary anyway. The bigger concern to me in the means is no signs of any help in the NA at the end of the run. If that verifies there will be a tendency for more amplified waves to track too far west. Hopefully down the line (per the weeklies) the AO/NAO does cooperate some.

[smokeybandit]

At least the torch this coming week doesn't look as torchy as it once did.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Running the 6z GEFS 2m temp loop through 384 shows nothing promising right to 31 Jan.  Even Western Canada looks fairly warm.  And our region is mostly mild.  But then I read LC from last night and it was encouraging.  

The odds of a significant winter event for the MA look pretty low until early Feb. I know there was some talk of the Jan 23-27th period, but realistically the pattern will not have progressed enough by that time and a storm occurring in that window would probably result in a GL/OV track.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The odds of a significant winter event for the MA look pretty low until early Feb. I know there was some talk of the Jan 23-27th period, but realistically the pattern will not have progressed enough by that time and a storm occurring in that window would probably result in a GL/OV track.

Yes.  I think there were a couple of recent GFS runs out there in that late January period which showed the potential for some kind of event here.  So I think in some ways that may have caused a bit of excitement or hope that we'll get out of the awful pattern faster.  I'll admit the weenie side of me at least was likewise hoping that we might see something trackable by the end of this month.  However, most of the discussion in here (e.g., Chill and PSU) has been saying that things really won't start to transition into a more favorable winter-like pattern (assuming it actually does!) until the end part of January.  Which means that we really won't be looking at a decent or good setup until the beginning of February.  Again, this assumes that we do end up with something favorable.  From the discussion and looking at the ensembles, weeklies, etc., there has been some solid indication this should occur, and it's apparently not continuously being pushed forward in time.  Much of the focus for us to potentially get something good to salvage this winter has been on February (and maybe into early March).  Sounds humorous to almost sound like saying the stereotypic "February/early March will be rockin'!", but in a way, that now stands as our best chance!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The odds of a significant winter event for the MA look pretty low until early Feb. I know there was some talk of the Jan 23-27th period, but realistically the pattern will not have progressed enough by that time and a storm occurring in that window would probably result in a GL/OV track.

One problem is that in the day 8-12 period that cut off system stalls and slowly slides across. Given there is no cold ahead of it that's not a threat but we need it to clear out before anything else can develop. Once that is out of the way we will see what things look like. I love the EPS look day 15. 6z Gefs took a troubling turn and gets the trough stuck in the west and pumps a ridge up the east towards the end.  It doesn't look like a permanent thing but that would definitely delay any better look into feb more then we would like. Hopefully it was just a hiccup.  

[psuhoffman]

The pattern day 10-15 isn't awful but the biggest problem is the antecedent airmass going into it is fubar.  Look at what we're dealing with

That's not going to fix itself overnight. there are plenty of members within the gefs geps and EPS that have storm tracks in the day 10-15 that would be at least some snow if we had any cold to work with.  We might end up wasting a week of not bat h5 pattern just fixing the airmass that gets routed this week. 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One problem is that in the day 8-12 period that cut off system stalls and slowly slides across. Given there is no cold ahead of it that's not a threat but we need it to clear out before anything else can develop. Once that is out of the way we will see what things look like. I love the EPS look day 15. 6z Gefs took a troubling turn and gets the trough stuck in the west and pumps a ridge up the east towards the end.  It doesn't look like a permanent thing but that would definitely delay any better look into feb more then we would like. Hopefully it was just a hiccup.  

This. It was a let down seeing the 06Z GFS shortly after seeing the 00Z EPS. To make matters worse, the GEFS has been moving toward that look for at least the last day and a half of runs if not longer. Hopefully, if the GEFS ends up being right, you are correct in it not being a permanent feature.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One problem is that in the day 8-12 period that cut off system stalls and slowly slides across. Given there is no cold ahead of it that's not a threat but we need it to clear out before anything else can develop. Once that is out of the way we will see what things look like. I love the EPS look day 15. 6z Gefs took a troubling turn and gets the trough stuck in the west and pumps a ridge up the east towards the end.  It doesn't look like a permanent thing but that would definitely delay any better look into feb more then we would like. Hopefully it was just a hiccup.  

The last few runs of the GEFS have shifted in that direction. Not so on the EPS or the GEPS. Will have to watch it, but for now we still seem to be on track for a more favorable east coast pattern by early Feb.

[frd]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The odds of a significant winter event for the MA look pretty low until early Feb. I know there was some talk of the Jan 23-27th period, but realistically the pattern will not have progressed enough by that time and a storm occurring in that window would probably result in a GL/OV track.

I agree , little help from the NAO for the next couple of weeks, however other indications continue to look favorable. i like seeing the SOI dropping three days in a row, and the La Nina decaying.  Maybe even an EL Nino developing by Summer.   

[poolz1]

The difference in the Pac is pretty stark between the gefs and eps.  The eps makes more sense with its depiction based on the forecasted forcing in the trop pac.  With that said...I feel a bit gun shy...eps is predicting a pattern not seen yet this winter, while the gefs is sticking to the same general theme.  Good arguments for both camps I guess... 

Question for anyone who may know...I know the eps is beating the pants off the gefs as far as skill scores go, especially recently.  The scores I see posted are for the 5 day h5.  Are there scores for longer range? D10...D15?  Just curious...

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern day 10-15 isn't awful but the biggest problem is the antecedent airmass going into it is fubar.  Look at what we're dealing with

That's not going to fix itself overnight. there are plenty of members within the gefs geps and EPS that have storm tracks in the day 10-15 that would be at least some snow if we had any cold to work with.  We might end up wasting a week of not bat h5 pattern just fixing the airmass that gets routed this week. 

 

Basically no below freezing 850 temps through the entire CONUS and much of Canada...Oy!  That is disconcerting and as you say it won't recover from that quickly.  But I thought the general idea even looking at this in the past week, is that we'd be dealing with an evacuation of cold air that has to be replaced.  And it won't come overnight.  So this should not be a huge surprise?  Not questioning what you're saying here in any way, I'm just seeing if this really was something that we knew we'd be starting at in the previous discussion of the pattern transitioning into something more favorable going into February (and not a new development).

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern day 10-15 isn't awful but the biggest problem is the antecedent airmass going into it is fubar.  Look at what we're dealing with

That's not going to fix itself overnight. there are plenty of members within the gefs geps and EPS that have storm tracks in the day 10-15 that would be at least some snow if we had any cold to work with.  We might end up wasting a week of not bat h5 pattern just fixing the airmass that gets routed this week. 

Know it sounds like Weenie 101 but I don't think you can discount the old 'Storm will make its own cold' through this time frame. Considering the time of the year and the temps being at a minimal it doesn't take as much to overcome the warm anomalies to get the temps you need. Of course we are talking a bombing low timed well for our local. Minus that, as you said, I think we are SOL through this time period as the models now depict it. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

This. It was a let down seeing the 06Z GFS shortly after seeing the 00Z EPS. To make matters worse, the GEFS has been moving toward that look for at least the last day and a half of runs if not longer. Hopefully, if the GEFS ends up being right, you are correct in it not being a permanent feature.

Considering the geps and EPS have a totally different look I'm not overly concerned yet. The gefs has been more jumpy then you would expect an ensemble to be lately. The ridge in the east is also pathetic. We're not looking at devember again where we were fighting a hard core se ridge.

The calls of repeat are kind of overdone imo. The gefs does look a lot like that mid dec period but it's not like that has been the dominant look. In January when the AK ridge went up the trough ended up dumping into the east. That actually screwed us over in the end. Took a nice west to east overrunning threat and turned it into a suppressed coastal that turned up too late. I think people remember that period different because for a long time it looked like the trough would go into the west but it didn't. It was actually a decently impressive period of cold. I held 6 days of snow cover off only 3" of dry powder.  Either way I'm not sure I trust a jumpy gefs at the end of its range over a more consistent EPS geps combo. But I certainly want to see the gefs flip back soon and not see any move towards it on other guidance. 

[mitchnick]

In light of what temps across NA will look like in 10 days+, this "pattern change" has got to be near perfect for us (mid Atlantic) to get snow by early Feb.  And frankly,  it's the snow that counts.  Who cares if it gets cold, the pattern changes, etc. if it doesn't result in "meaningful" snowfall? 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

Basically no below freezing 850 temps through the entire CONUS and much of Canada...Oy!  That is disconcerting and as you say it won't recover from that quickly.  But I thought the general idea even looking at this in the past week, is that we'd be dealing with an evacuation of cold air that has to be replaced.  And it won't come overnight.  So this should not be a huge surprise?  Not questioning what you're saying here in any way, I'm just seeing if this really was something that we knew we'd be starting at in the previous discussion of the pattern transitioning into something more favorable going into February (and not a new development).

It's not new. We "knew" this would be an issue. But when the pattern change was at day 15 it was easier to say "yay blues and reds in the right places" and imagine snow. Now that things are getting closer the lack of cold anywhere is harder to ignore or imagine away. If you want to believe the EPS by day 15 the conus is mostly below avg 850 again and we're ready to rock. So by feb. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

In light of what temps across NA will look like in 10 days+, this "pattern change" has got to be near perfect for us (mid Atlantic) to get snow by early Feb.  And frankly,  it's the snow that counts.  Who cares if it gets cold, the pattern changes, etc. if it doesn't result in "meaningful" snowfall? 

But who would have thought the cold and impressive SE/coastal MA snowfall would have been possible looking at the means when that period was 10+ days out. Not me. 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In light of what temps across NA will look like in 10 days+, this "pattern change" has got to be near perfect for us (mid Atlantic) to get snow by early Feb.  And frankly,  it's the snow that counts.  Who cares if it gets cold, the pattern changes, etc. if it doesn't result in "meaningful" snowfall? 

It's all good. The snowfall means on the GEFS and the EPS have been steadily going up. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

But who would have thought the cold and impressive SE/coastal MA snowfall would have been possible looking at the means when that period was 10+ days out. Not me. 

That storm came during a period of predicted low height along the south and east coasts with below normal temps. This is different.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In light of what temps across NA will look like in 10 days+, this "pattern change" has got to be near perfect for us (mid Atlantic) to get snow by early Feb.  And frankly,  it's the snow that counts.  Who cares if it gets cold, the pattern changes, etc. if it doesn't result in "meaningful" snowfall? 

I would say we need the pattern to have legs. If it's a transient 10 day thing we're screwed. By the time we get cold into the region it will be over. If the idea of the western Canada ridge being a stable feature for February is correct we will be ok. That will cause the trough to continuously dig into the east. We will have plenty of chances and law of averages says something will work out. Add in any period, even transient, of nao help and we really could rock. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

It's all good. The snowfall means on the GEFS and the EPS have been steadily going up. 

Starting with the period after the blizzard last year and continuing with the period before last weekend's storm, I've lost any hope with what they show. Not saying they are useless,  just that using the operational models as a group seems to make better sense to me; not that they aren't equally as troubling.  Lol

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I would say we need the pattern to have legs. If it's a transient 10 day thing we're screwed. By the time we get cold into the region it will be over. If the idea of the western Canada ridge being a stable feature for February is correct we will be ok. That will cause the trough to continuously dig into the east. We will have plenty of chances and law of averages says something will work out. Add in any period, even transient, of nao help and we really could rock. 

For the most part the models have been very good this year ,unlike some other years, with the progression of their depicted pattern changes and moving them forward in time vs. delaying them. So I don't think it will take us too long to be clued in on the stability of the pattern.