mattie g Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Day 10: 985 off of Wilmington and a 973 50-50, though the 1037 H is a little too far north in Quebec. Cold might be iffy around then, as well, but that's a nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, mattie g said: Day 10: 985 off of Wilmington and a 973 50-50, though the 1037 H is a little too far north in Quebec. Cold might be iffy around then, as well, but that's a nice look. This is acceptable. I'll be back on the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 This is the rare solar system pattern of closed ULLs orbiting a closed ULH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The euro is an absolute convoluted mess that somehow works for us. But I doubt it's stable and likely to remain as is in future runs. On the other hand the soi is dropping fast now and the NJ is rocketing strongly into phase 1 in about 3 days. That combo argues for a trough in the east. So it's not crazy that the euro suddenly finds a way to make that happen. I doubt this specific solution happens and I'm not wasting time analyzing it but I also won't discount that things could flip with a storm ending up under us around that time given the sudden jolt given by the mjo and soi. God knows we have seen things suddenly fall apart from 10 days out. Why not have things suddenly come together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 36 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is acceptable. I'll be back on the 22nd. I'm gone. Last time I was in Seattle was Commuteaggedon in 2011. So, rack it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Two things! 1. Anytime things suddenly come together IN OUR FAVOR we have failure (Unless we have the miracle year of 2013) 2. IF anything shows up suddenly, it usually is failure! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is the rare solar system pattern of closed ULLs orbiting a closed ULH Solar System pattern! I LOVE IT! Coin that phrase! It is awesome! I realize this post and the last have no value to the discussion! I will stop! (But I will remember this)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I think December 73 had a storm like the day 10 Euro. March 2010 was similar also. Both produced rain and coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Two things! 1. Anytime things suddenly come together IN OUR FAVOR we have failure (Unless we have the miracle year of 2013) 2. IF anything shows up suddenly, it usually is failure! LOL! So much pessimism considering how much snow we have had the last 3 years. My god what will it be like here when we get out next string of 3 crappy sub 15" years in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: So much pessimism considering how much snow we have had the last 3 years. My god what will it be like here when we get out next string of 3 crappy sub 15" years in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 i am not sure what to do here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I'm gone. Last time I was in Seattle was Commuteaggedon in 2011. So, rack it up.Going to the AMS conference?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Ji said: i am not sure what to do here What exactly is a sloppy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 19 minutes ago, yoda said: What exactly is a sloppy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, yoda said: What exactly is a sloppy snow? It's pre-yellowed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 2 hours ago, mappy said: Going to the AMS conference? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Thats one heck of a convoluted pattern showing up on the Euro op next weekend. Bowling ball of an upper low plowing though the Southern part of the country...and ridging SW of GL forcing it under the ridge. If only. Might not be snow verbatim but thats a recipe for a big storm. Pattern change incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 YupSweet! Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 0z Euro OP plus the EPS mean showing strong signal for something Jan 22-25 time frame. Strong ridging SW of GL and bowling ball upper low headed East. Height anomalies off the charts in SE Canada forcing ULL underneath. OP has a 979mb-ish slp developing off the SE coast. Snow would probably be a challenge verbatim but the system doesnt appear to have anywhere to go in the Atlantic based on the 500mb look? Looking at this as more of a significant coastal storm threat than a snowstorm threat attm but its a ways out and just something to watch for now. Other guidance has potent storm signal as well but various locations from the Plains to the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 6:52 AM, showmethesnow said: Talking at range, a day or two centered around day 13, but in my opinion at this time the GEFS and the EPS are both strongly signaling a somewhat significant low somewhere in the eastern portion of the CONUS and have been for several runs now. As far as track, temps, snow, no snow etc... no idea. Those are facts that would come into better clarity the next week or so. That is if the models even hold onto this signal over subsequent runs. 00Z EPS mean shows a strong low in the lakes earlier in the period with a transfer of a low off of OC later in the period. Casually glancing over the individual ensembles show a different story though. The solutions being thrown out are varied but the two major camps seem to be a major low in the lakes earlier in the period or a fairly strong coastal low later in the period. And again there are many solutions being thrown out but most of the members agree on a fairly strong if not significant low from the Midwest to off the coast. I will mention that the trough placement and axis favors a more westerly solution. Like the EPS the 00Z GEFS members also have varied solutions with the two major camps being a strong Great Lakes low or a strong southern low running up the coast. The 500's though support the solution of a southern storm running up the coast. Not to be left out the 00Z CMS also supports the southern low with low mslp mean anomalies showing a low in the gulf running up the Eastern seaboard. The 500's support this solution as well. It will be interesting to see if the models hold onto this and if they do how they evolve. 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 0z Euro OP plus the EPS mean showing strong signal for something Jan 22-25 time frame. Strong ridging SW of GL and bowling ball upper low headed East. Height anomalies off the charts in SE Canada forcing ULL underneath. OP has a 979mb-ish slp developing off the SE coast. Snow would probably be a challenge verbatim but the system doesnt appear to have anywhere to go in the Atlantic based on the 500mb look? Looking at this as more of a significant coastal storm threat than a snowstorm threat attm but its a ways out and just something to watch for now. Other guidance has potent storm signal as well but various locations from the Plains to the EC. I was wondering if we would see this period pop up again. Considering we were talking at such range, all three models had a pretty strong signal for a fairly significant low in the eastern half of the US but subsequently lost it the last few days. Now we see it back but with the Euro and GFS switching places. The GFS now favors something running into the lakes and the Euro with a southern slider/possible coastal. CMC at this point still favors the southern/coastal solution. Lets see if the models hold unto it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Hr 400 storm still looking good, just staying 400 hours out, on 6z gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Hr 400 storm still looking good, just staying 400 hours out, on 6z gfs... Nothing has solidified yet as a defined threat. But the general idea of ridging developing in western Canada and Alaska and a trough in the east is moving closer in time. By feb the pattern looks workable on gefs geps and EPS. Given that look something should appear as a track able threat once we're in range. After that if the strat warm can lead to some nao help once into feb it could become a very favorable pattern. As is its not a hostile look at all and our best look this year on the day 15 guidance. I suspect something might show itself as at least a chance within the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 With the lull of activity, a question for anyone who can provide some insight... Found this interesting site: https://www.windytv.com/?temp,39.113,-77.141,7 Don't see it mentioned much here, if ever. If accurate, the temp profile shows the current CAD very clearly over the region. Are the temps accurate for the various elevations shown on the right side from surface up through 150hPa? (click on "surface" at the lower right on the screen). The site shows three tabs for three models - ECMWF, GFS and NAM5K You can scroll across the bottom to look ahead or select the various dates along the bottom of the screen. Interesting to graphically see the model projections. Depressing to see just how warm most everyone East of the Mississippi is going to be over the next week. Thanks in advance for any info about the site... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 I like the progression of the GEFS and GEPS. You can see the evolving pattern change. Will just hold the enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I like the progression of the GEFS and GEPS. You can see the evolving pattern change. Will just hold the enthusiasm. Yup - Remaining optimistic the remaining 8 weeks of normal potential comes through for us (minus the week coming up). I'm gonna remove the snow blade from my Kubota. Don't want to jinx anything. Leaving it on is the surest insurance we WON'T get anything plowable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 CPC Discussion for week 3/4 from yesterday consistent with the guarded optimism shown in above posts: Dynamical model ensemble guidance supports a substantial pattern change from Week-2 into the Week 3-4 outlook period. During Week-2 anomalous 500-hPa ridging is favored over Hudson Bay, with anomalous troughing stretching from Alaska down the Pacific coast, with an eastward extension along the border with Mexico. Beginning around 25 January ensemble guidance suggests ridging will begin to build southwestward across the Pacific Northwest, with troughing building in the east. The JMA is an outlier, with broad ridging forecast across North America. Some hesitation is needed with this forecast solution, as dynamical guidance has shown a tendency to abruptly adjust the general circulation pattern too quickly during the Week 3-4 period. Nevertheless, the consistent solution between the CFS and ECENS does make this solution the basis for the present outlook; however, probabilities are damped based on recent performance in pattern change scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Euro lost another 10 day snowstorm Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro lost another 10 day snowstorm Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Except It never showed any snow at all. It lost a suppressed rainstorm over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Long range 18z gfs looks pretty good. Couple chances day 12-16 eps is still showing a nice look there too. I suspect as it gets closer something will materialize as a real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 A ridge in western Canada Yukon isn't a bad spot. No nao help but it's a decent pattern. After that if we hold the pna ridge and get any nao help later on feb could be very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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