psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, frd said: Not even sure if 1993 will be a valid analog as the month comes to an end. A lot is going on during the next three weeks, and some analogs favor some of the better winters in the 1960's. It's hard to use analogs during a pattern that is in flux like this. One good sign though is the really ugly years mixed in the analogs are becoming fewer and they really do not match the look going into the long range. The better matches in terms of pattern evolution right now are some of those years with a better snow outcome for us. So I am cautiously optimistic right now. So far things are going about as well as we could have hoped for when the really awful look locked in on all the guidance about a week ago. We are already seeing the other side clearly before it even fully sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 MJO forecasts looking better from the Euro, more so into the favorable ( colder - stormier ) phases, even though the amplitude may not presently be that great. First time today in a while that the SOI maybe a small flip to the negative side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, frd said: MJO forecasts looking better from the Euro, more so into the favorable ( colder - stormier ) phases, even though the amplitude may not presently be that great. First time today in a while that the SOI maybe a small flip to the negative side. That's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Hour 400 on the GFS looks like it could be good if suppression doesn't win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, eurojosh said: Hour 400 on the GFS looks like it could be good if suppression doesn't win... I'm worried I get fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm worried I get fringed yep...that looks like it might be a big hit but the run stops. Story of our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 36 minutes ago, Ji said: yep...that looks like it might be a big hit but the run stops. Story of our winter Yea lets extrapolate a day 16 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 There were several hits late in the gefs. That's all that matters. Still too far out to get a definite signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Seems the JMA is on board for some favorable forcing deveoping , possibly leading to a more El Ninoish state later in the month and in early Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Ha ha Wonder if HM thinks this will have a longer stay , ie. the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Seems like a repeat coming , maybe better this time versus last, in my opinion. But, it might take a little longer to get there. I read yesterday in the NY forum, Isotherm saying even with a displaced vortex it might take two to three weeks until the NAO and AO domains are more receptive to negative phases based on any PV disruptions or elongations, etc. Isotherm did seem to think a favorable winter like period is coming up in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 24 minutes ago, frd said: Seems like a repeat coming , maybe better this time versus last, in my opinion. But, it might take a little longer to get there. I read yesterday in the NY forum, Isotherm saying even with a displaced vortex it might take two to three weeks until the NAO and AO domains are more receptive to negative phases based on any PV disruptions or elongations, etc. Isotherm did seem to think a favorable winter like period is coming up in Feb. Even if it takes a couple weeks, we're on a roll with recent secs+ that every year does not grant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Even if it takes a couple weeks, we're on a roll with recent secs+ that every year does not grant. Well, that would be another point for the Farmer's Almanac which seems to be more accurate than it usually is (which is kinda 50/50 or less, lol) if this were to verify. It calls fir bitter cold for the first week of Feb...I know it's not respected here, but I like to give it it's props when it is accurate. And so far, the date range and subsequent weather predictions have been pretty good...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, that would be another point for the Farmer's Almanac which seems to be more accurate than it usually is (which is kinda 50/50 or less, lol) if this were to verify. It calls fir bitter cold for the first week of Feb...I know it's not respected here, but I like to give it it's props when it is accurate. And so far, the date range and subsequent weather predictions have been pretty good...lol When accurate yes, give them props...but it's nothing special when they say below average for the coldest time of the year locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Weeklies look great weeks 3-7. 4 straight weeks of winter. +pna/-epo week 3 through the end and the -ao/nao join week 4 through the end. The one thing I could be critical about is it could be dryish and northern stream only in the general pattern being shown but it's still a great run no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look great weeks 3-7. 4 straight weeks of winter. +pna/-epo week 3 through the end and the -ao/nao join week 4 through the end. The one thing I could be critical about is it could be dryish and northern stream only in the general pattern being shown but it's still a great run no matter how you slice it. Yea would have to nitpick to find fault with this run. I'll hug it. I'm feeling pretty good about feb. soi is dropping. Mjo headed to phase 1. Legit Swe about to start. Enso is fading to neutral. Qbo is about the only thing standing in the way but I don't think it's enough to ruin the other signals lining up. It's nice to see some tasty analogs showing up lately too. 1979 popped up today. 1958, 1960, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1987, and 1993 have all littered the set the last few days. I am aware that pattern progression is not how those are used but when a crap ton of years show up with similar patterns had historic February's and or Marches it doesn't hurt either. I agree the risk is cold dry. In that regard let's see what the soi is about to do. The bigger the drop the better. If the stj gets kick started this could be a money pattern. If not we will have to scrap for it but I'll take my chances in that pattern over anything else we've had so far. Finally we're going to have to be patient. We can't rush it. The changes are starting by day 10 but the conus is void cold by then and it's going to take some work. Plus I suspect the nao will kick in but perhaps not until later. The warning has a lag. Doesn't mean we can't snow week 3 but the best may be as this matures. Don't freak out if the first couple threats don't hit. If things peak feb 10-20 that's not too late to save the winter. Let this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look great weeks 3-7. 4 straight weeks of winter. +pna/-epo week 3 through the end and the -ao/nao join week 4 through the end. The one thing I could be critical about is it could be dryish and northern stream only in the general pattern being shown but it's still a great run no matter how you slice it. All out weenie run overall, and we get into a good pattern for the last few days of Jan. The epo/pna ridge develops as has been hinted at for a while now, then a true weenie look with some cooperation from the ao and nao a bit later. I will take my chances with it being NS dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look great weeks 3-7. 4 straight weeks of winter. +pna/-epo week 3 through the end and the -ao/nao join week 4 through the end. The one thing I could be critical about is it could be dryish and northern stream only in the general pattern being shown but it's still a great run no matter how you slice it. Some of the more reserved mets in the New England forum saud if they come true Feb would be epic. Bob, I see you mentioned possibly dry, is that because there are no indicatioins of a split flow or active S jet. Why were they so gung ho. Maybe a better storm potential up there? Just wondering, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: Some of the more reserved mets in the New England forum saud if they come true Feb would be epic. Bob, I see you mentioned possibly dry, is that because there are no indicatioins of a split flow or active S jet. Why were they so gung ho. Maybe a better storm potential up there? Just wondering, thanks. They don't need Stj up there. Clippers and Miller b's can cream them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: They don't need Stj up there. Clippers and Miller b's can cream them. Exactly. We can do ok with northern stream only but usually small events here. Way to early to worry about those kinds of details of course. I was bringing up the only thing I saw that could be criticized. It was a great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. We can do ok with northern stream only but usually small events here. Way to early to worry about those kinds of details of course. I was bringing up the only thing I saw that could be criticized. It was a great run Thanks Bob and WinterWxLuvr , certainly consistency lately with the weeklies. I am hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, frd said: Thanks Bob and WinterWxLuvr , certainly consistency lately with the weeklies. I am hopeful. Me as well. I feel like I just ask a magic 8 ball if winter is coming and it said "all signs point to yes!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Me as well. I feel like I just ask a magic 8 ball if winter is coming and it said "all signs point to yes!" Never doubt the magic 8 ball :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Pulling this from the NY forum but goes along with what I posted yesterday about the JMA and favorable West Pac forcing , seems that the CFS agrees with this and they both seem to match the progression that the Euro weeklies use to get the extended cold look for late month and all of Feb. Also the SOI second day in a row with a decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 The long range must look great judging by the number of posts on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The long range must look great judging by the number of posts on it. I think it looks good, but its too far out to look at any details and everything that needs to be said was said last night after the euro weeklies run. There are no bad signs right now looking at Feb. But its too far out to really get that excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12z GFS at the very end of its run has a huge powerful arctic blast entering the nation... parts of MT are -30 2m temps MT/ND/SD/MN/WY/ID/NW NE/NW IA are all below zero 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 with the nice pattern setting up inside gfs range we should at least start to see some weenie fantasies start to appear on the ops in the next couple days - digital snow thread could be epicSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Euro has a huge day 9 storm.850s okay but 99.9 percent sure the surface is warm except for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 thoughts on the day 9 and 10 euro? is that a storm off the coast of Carolina with cold air pumping down from the north? thats different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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