January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[mdsnowlover]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Is something happening January 17th?  You seem to keep bringing that date up and I have no idea why. 

that's the date of beginning mjo phase 8 according to 2 other mets i read. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mdsnowlover said:

that's the date of beginning mjo phase 8 according to 2 other mets i read. 

Until recently the MJO has been stuck in the COD and a non factor.  It is now showing some signs, but only on some guidance, of making a resurgence into relevant territory.  Given the recent surge in the SOI I buy that as believable, and if you project the cycle out it MAY be getting into better phases around Jan 20th.  But going that far out is VERY risky with the MJO, and the signal is weak.  Furthermore, you started talking about Jan 17 a while ago, when we were way way way out of range for projecting the MJO that far, were still on the edge of any ability to do that now, and when there was absolutely no guidance supporting such an idea.  I am NOT attacking you just wondering where that idea came from and what evidence they were using to come to that conclusion. 

[mdsnowlover]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Until recently the MJO has been stuck in the COD and a non factor.  It is now showing some signs, but only on some guidance, of making a resurgence into relevant territory.  Given the recent surge in the SOI I buy that as believable, and if you project the cycle out it MAY be getting into better phases around Jan 20th.  But going that far out is VERY risky with the MJO, and the signal is weak.  Furthermore, you started talking about Jan 17 a while ago, when we were way way way out of range for projecting the MJO that far, were still on the edge of any ability to do that now, and when there was absolutely no guidance supporting such an idea.  I am NOT attacking you just wondering where that idea came from and what evidence they were using to come to that conclusion. 

i,m not taking your words as attack, JB referred to the date, but as i no longer follow him, its not relevant now. I believe DT referred to the 20th as a similar date and that was at least 2 weeks ago, before his comment about cold coming back earlier than expected.

[psuhoffman]

There isn't a lot of good news but if we're dredging the bottom for silver linings there are two positives I can throw out from recent runs. 

Both the gefs and EPS continue to have a few members that throw a fluke frozen event in the middle of our warm period. Both seem to do this by running a high across to our north and timing up a wave under it. With the conus flooded with warm that would only work during peak climo but mud Jan is when some marginal crap like that can sometimes get er done. The signal is weak and mostly washed out by means but hinted at by how the ridging is centered to our north. That can allow some highs to sneak across. We wouldn't be cold but perhaps just cold enough if we got perfect timing. 

Other then that in the way way out period I see some first hints of signs of support for the euro weeklies idea of how things evolve. Over time the gefs wants to begin pulling the center of the ridging further north so that by Jan 20 it's over Hudson Bay. Continue that progression and get the heights out west to rise a bit more and suddenly you reach the breaking point and a trough dumps into the east. That is the way the weeklies got us to the better look Jan 25 on. EPS begins raising heights out west towards the end. I'd like to see the ridging pulling north a bit more but it's a first step. I don't think the coming pattern will be that long lived. It really sets in by the 12th or so but there are signs we could get a break with a high or two that first week. Then by the 20th it may be starting to break down. Things have been transient this year with nothing locking in more then 2 weeks since November. That and the redevelopment of ridging near AK argue this won't last long. 

[psuhoffman]

Hmm since I can't sleep figured I'd watch the last few weatgerbell vids for entertainment and Jb seems to mirror my analysis of the long range. Unfortunately that's probably a bad sign given recent track records. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There isn't a lot of good news but if we're dredging the bottom for silver linings there are two positives I can throw out from recent runs. 

Both the gefs and EPS continue to have a few members that throw a fluke frozen event in the middle of our warm period. Both seem to do this by running a high across to our north and timing up a wave under it. With the conus flooded with warm that would only work during peak climo but mud Jan is when some marginal crap like that can sometimes get er done. The signal is weak and mostly washed out by means but hinted at by how the ridging is centered to our north. That can allow some highs to sneak across. We wouldn't be cold but perhaps just cold enough if we got perfect timing. 

Other then that in the way way out period I see some first hints of signs of support for the euro weeklies idea of how things evolve. Over time the gefs wants to begin pulling the center of the ridging further north so that by Jan 20 it's over Hudson Bay. Continue that progression and get the heights out west to rise a bit more and suddenly you reach the breaking point and a trough dumps into the east. That is the way the weeklies got us to the better look Jan 25 on. EPS begins raising heights out west towards the end. I'd like to see the ridging pulling north a bit more but it's a first step. I don't think the coming pattern will be that long lived. It really sets in by the 12th or so but there are signs we could get a break with a high or two that first week. Then by the 20th it may be starting to break down. Things have been transient this year with nothing locking in more then 2 weeks since November. That and the redevelopment of ridging near AK argue this won't last long. 

I am pretty encouraged. Signal for a building PNA ridge is growing and it looks like by the end of the run on the EPS we have a trough near the Aleutians and ridge over AK. Nice -EPO/+PNA look. Really nice to see indications of a major reshuffle out west. Have to see what transpires with the AO/NAO but it doesn't look like raging positive. Could probably use some PV perturbation and there are hints of that on the guidance as well.

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There isn't a lot of good news but if we're dredging the bottom for silver linings there are two positives I can throw out from recent runs. 

Both the gefs and EPS continue to have a few members that throw a fluke frozen event in the middle of our warm period. Both seem to do this by running a high across to our north and timing up a wave under it. With the conus flooded with warm that would only work during peak climo but mud Jan is when some marginal crap like that can sometimes get er done. The signal is weak and mostly washed out by means but hinted at by how the ridging is centered to our north. That can allow some highs to sneak across. We wouldn't be cold but perhaps just cold enough if we got perfect timing. 

Other then that in the way way out period I see some first hints of signs of support for the euro weeklies idea of how things evolve. Over time the gefs wants to begin pulling the center of the ridging further north so that by Jan 20 it's over Hudson Bay. Continue that progression and get the heights out west to rise a bit more and suddenly you reach the breaking point and a trough dumps into the east. That is the way the weeklies got us to the better look Jan 25 on. EPS begins raising heights out west towards the end. I'd like to see the ridging pulling north a bit more but it's a first step. I don't think the coming pattern will be that long lived. It really sets in by the 12th or so but there are signs we could get a break with a high or two that first week. Then by the 20th it may be starting to break down. Things have been transient this year with nothing locking in more then 2 weeks since November. That and the redevelopment of ridging near AK argue this won't last long. 

Isn't the MJO going to be favorable on Jan 17th?

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There isn't a lot of good news but if we're dredging the bottom for silver linings there are two positives I can throw out from recent runs. 

Both the gefs and EPS continue to have a few members that throw a fluke frozen event in the middle of our warm period. Both seem to do this by running a high across to our north and timing up a wave under it. With the conus flooded with warm that would only work during peak climo but mud Jan is when some marginal crap like that can sometimes get er done. The signal is weak and mostly washed out by means but hinted at by how the ridging is centered to our north. That can allow some highs to sneak across. We wouldn't be cold but perhaps just cold enough if we got perfect timing. 

Other then that in the way way out period I see some first hints of signs of support for the euro weeklies idea of how things evolve. Over time the gefs wants to begin pulling the center of the ridging further north so that by Jan 20 it's over Hudson Bay. Continue that progression and get the heights out west to rise a bit more and suddenly you reach the breaking point and a trough dumps into the east. That is the way the weeklies got us to the better look Jan 25 on. EPS begins raising heights out west towards the end. I'd like to see the ridging pulling north a bit more but it's a first step. I don't think the coming pattern will be that long lived. It really sets in by the 12th or so but there are signs we could get a break with a high or two that first week. Then by the 20th it may be starting to break down. Things have been transient this year with nothing locking in more then 2 weeks since November. That and the redevelopment of ridging near AK argue this won't last long. 

You summed everything up perfectly.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Just peaking at gefs members and definitely a cluster likes some front end frozen for Tuesday night. This weekends and early weeks artic cold won't leave easily . Something to watch for trends.

It's mostly a freezing rain threat. Better threat is after that cutter as a high slides across to our north. 

[showmethesnow]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's mostly a freezing rain threat. Better threat is after that cutter as a high slides across to our north. 

Glad you are keeping track of our next fail while we all watch these two fail.  

[Ji]

PNA is forecast to rise and AO is forecast to tank?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[Ji]

Here is that magic Jan 17 day everyone is waiting for

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here is that magic Jan 17 day everyone is waiting for

 

Perfect.  Let's lock that ridge in place.

[Ji]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Perfect.  Let's lock that ridge in place.

this image will give us only one inch less of snow than the image that had an alaskan block and -NAO

[Wonderdog]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

PNA is forecast to rise and AO is forecast to tank?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

And the NAO tanks on the 17th also. Good times are a coming!

[kurtstack]

Wow - we still haven't recorded a -AO yet this winter.  That may be the change we need to get things jumpstarted around here.

[usedtobe]

I'm pretty discouraged by the long range Euro ens mean.  If the max positive anomaly shift into Asia and a negative does develop over Ak, it's pretty horrid pattern for getting cold in the east.  Trying to bank on the MJO to make a change is risky since it is so hard to forecast its movement.  My guess is that after this cold shot,  we'll have to wait way longer than most here can handle.   Gonna lost of angst. 

[Ji]

I'm pretty discouraged by the long range Euro ens mean.  If the max positive anomaly shift into Asia and a negative does develop over Ak, it's pretty horrid pattern for getting cold in the east.  Trying to bank on the MJO to make a change is risky since it is so hard to forecast its movement.  My guess is that after this cold shot,  we'll have to wait way longer than most here can handle.   Gonna lost of angst. 

No pattern has really locked in yet...I bet it look very different by this time next week

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[kurtstack]

5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

I'm pretty discouraged by the long range Euro ens mean.  If the max positive anomaly shift into Asia and a negative does develop over Ak, it's pretty horrid pattern for getting cold in the east.  Trying to bank on the MJO to make a change is risky since it is so hard to forecast its movement.  My guess is that after this cold shot,  we'll have to wait way longer than most here can handle.   Gonna lost of angst. 

I have a hard time believing that Alaskan ridge is going anywhere for more than a short period of time this winter.  It's the one constant we've seen in the pattern.  I bet it makes a comeback.

[psuhoffman]

 

 

2 hours ago, usedtobe said:

I'm pretty discouraged by the long range Euro ens mean.  If the max positive anomaly shift into Asia and a negative does develop over Ak, it's pretty horrid pattern for getting cold in the east.  Trying to bank on the MJO to make a change is risky since it is so hard to forecast its movement.  My guess is that after this cold shot,  we'll have to wait way longer than most here can handle.   Gonna lost of angst. 

Your analysis of the EPS is spot on. Bad run. But just like it looked hopeless for a long time in late December then things flipped, even if just for a week, I suspect this won't lock in for weeks. Nothing has so far this year. I wouldn't be shocked to see a threat after the cutter next week. Then things get ugly for a week but I bet by Jan 15 we see signs of light on the other side. 

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

Your analysis of the EPS is spot on. Bad run. But just like it looked hopeless for a long time in late December then things flipped, even if just for a week, I suspect this won't lock in for weeks. Nothing has so far this year. I wouldn't be shocked to see a threat after the cutter next week. Then things get ugly for a week but I bet by Jan 15 we see signs of light on the other side. 

Don't you mean Jan 17th?  

Hope you are right and we aren't talking end of Jan/ beginning of Feb as the weeklies suggest. After watching the boards today I would hate to see how they would be after 3 or 4 weeks of torch with little to no chance of scoring anything.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't you mean Jan 17th?  

Hope you are right and we aren't talking end of Jan/ beginning of Feb as the weeklies suggest. After watching the boards today I would hate to see how they would be after 3 or 4 weeks of torch with little to no chance of scoring anything.

I think we see the changes coming by the 15th. May be towards the 25th before we get into a better pattern and while that sucks sitting here Jan 4th if as actually get pna and NAO help and a legit cold pattern going into feb it's not the end of the world. We do well in feb. but that's it no more pushing it back and it better be a legit good pattern not just transient or mediocre or we're looking at a really bad year. As chill said it takes 3-5 threats to get a hit on average. So if we only had two so far, then only get 2-3 more we might get one or two hits and that's it. Assuming one isn't a hecs that probably means a 1/10 type bad winter. 

[psuhoffman]

The window for a surprise in the day 9-15 period keeps showing up in the ggem gfs and euro and all 3 ensembles.  All 3 bring a parade of highs across to our north during that week. The means washes it out because between the highs most of the systems still do cut and we warm under the ridging in front but differences in timing at that range just blends it all together to look warm. But almost all the individual runs have the highs and some hits or near misses during the time. They don't agree on which systems. Euro and ggem had a snow look day 10-11.  Gfs manages a snow event day 13-14. Most of the storms still cut given the pattern but if we get one timed up under the high we could score a snow event during an otherwise. Crappy pattern. I'd put the odds around 25% based on the numbers of hits on the guidance so low but not as bad as a look at the ensemble means would lead. 

[showmethesnow]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we see the changes coming by the 15th. May be towards the 25th before we get into a better pattern and while that sucks sitting here Jan 4th if as actually get pna and NAO help and a legit cold pattern going into feb it's not the end of the world. We do well in feb. but that's it no more pushing it back and it better be a legit good pattern not just transient or mediocre or we're looking at a really bad year. As chill said it takes 3-5 threats to get a hit on average. So if we only had two so far, then only get 2-3 more we might get one or two hits and that's it. Assuming one isn't a hecs that probably means a 1/10 type bad winter. 

Don't think many people realize how bad last year was because it is clouded by that 1 week stretch with the big storm. We drew to an inside straight getting that storm otherwise minus that we would possibly be looking at a horrid 2 year stretch. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Is Tuesday not worth discussing?

The trends on the gfs look decent for a little on the front end

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't think many people realize how bad last year was because it is clouded by that 1 week stretch with the big storm. We drew to an inside straight getting that storm otherwise minus that we would possibly be looking at a horrid 2 year stretch. 

Preach it brother.

[EastCoast NPZ]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The window for a surprise in the day 9-15 period keeps showing up in the ggem gfs and euro and all 3 ensembles.  All 3 bring a parade of highs across to our north during that week. The means washes it out because between the highs most of the systems still do cut and we warm under the ridging in front but differences in timing at that range just blends it all together to look warm. But almost all the individual runs have the highs and some hits or near misses during the time. They don't agree on which systems. Euro and ggem had a snow look day 10-11.  Gfs manages a snow event day 13-14. Most of the storms still cut given the pattern but if we get one timed up under the high we could score a snow event during an otherwise. Crappy pattern. I'd put the odds around 25% based on the numbers of hits on the guidance so low but not as bad as a look at the ensemble means would lead. 

You're putting the odds of scoring on a 10 - 14 day threat in a crappy pattern at 25%??

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't think many people realize how bad last year was because it is clouded by that 1 week stretch with the big storm. We drew to an inside straight getting that storm otherwise minus that we would possibly be looking at a horrid 2 year stretch. 

A few of us certainly do, and have been preaching that since last year.  We were 30 hours away from one of the all-time worst winters here.  

And we look to be on pace to challenge it again.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You're putting the odds of scoring on a 10 - 14 day threat in a crappy pattern at 25%??

I should define that as seeing some frozen in our region. If you asked the odds for DCA maybe closer to 15% and the odds of more then a few inches lower then that. But the chances of seeing some frozen from one of the multiple waves coming across timing up with one of those highs sure. 

[Bob Chill]

19 hours ago, usedtobe said:

I'm pretty discouraged by the long range Euro ens mean.  If the max positive anomaly shift into Asia and a negative does develop over Ak, it's pretty horrid pattern for getting cold in the east.  Trying to bank on the MJO to make a change is risky since it is so hard to forecast its movement.  My guess is that after this cold shot,  we'll have to wait way longer than most here can handle.   Gonna lost of angst. 

The strong signal for a trough centered over AK is definitely troubling. It will pretty much wreck our source region. We saw a similar version of that early in the season. It's one thing to have a tough in the western conus with plenty of cold present but having most if not all of Canada getting flooded with pac maritime air is a different beast alltogether. 

The only good thing I see is this winter has shown that nothing hangs around for too long. We've had 2 runs of the AK ridge and neither lasted very long. If variability is the true theme of this winter then I wouldn't expect the AK trough to stick around for a month. As PSU has said several times, the logical way out and reasonable progression is to have the trough retro west and higher heights build in the PNA region. Ensembles are hinting at that but no consensus yet. Hopefully in another week the way out starts to show itself with a stronger signal. 

All in all this winter is definitely behaving like an underperformer. Not just here but in general in the east. The SE is starting down the barrel of a big storm but it could end up like us last winter...one storm makes the winter. Even if things line up ok in late jan into feb, this sure has the feel of a sub climo winter. Luckily our climo is low enough where 1-2 events can make a huge dent.