January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[yoda]

Just now, PaEasternWX said:

Im thinking if every things goes well  Saturday (next event) could be first winter storm warning for the winter/watch.

I highly doubt that... not enough moisture for that or anywhere close to that

[PaEasternWX]

fyi a thread for the threat should be started today or tomorrow i would think.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Only 384 hours out, but finally a +PNA on the 6z GFS. Looks like we have a chance with this stalled front, then the rest of January is "january-thaw" time.... 

Whewwww...

Now I don't feel so bad for posting a skewt off the 84 hr Nam.!

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We probably don't want to root for too far south with the cold push. Precip is focused on the stalled mid-level boundary. The further south the 850 line goes the further south the snowfall goes too. 

Thank you for saying it because if I did someone might throw something at me. 

[Bob Chill]

Onset is less than 72 hours. GFS looks solid.  I started a thread. Kiss of death or boom?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Onset is less than 72 hours. GFS looks solid.  I started a thread. Kiss of death or boom?

Kiss of death.  Wait until we're under 60 hours, IMO.  

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Kiss of death.  Wait until we're under 60 hours, IMO.  

Too late already started and I posted in it

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

Too late already started and I posted in it

 

[showmethesnow]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank you for saying it because if I did someone might throw something at me. 

I thought it was better left unsaid as well.  If anything we do fail well in this area and that would just be another to throw onto the heap.

[psuhoffman]

The warm pattern looks to really only be a week and then things start to step back down on both the GFS and Euro.  By day 10 we are already in the process.  The cold high coming across in the middle of the ridge really killed the idea of a long drawn out torch.  We get a couple warm days, then several cold...then maybe 4-5 warm again before we transition back to seasonal and perhaps eventually below.  

[PDIII]

I found this to be somewhat amusing...

[BTRWx]

13 minutes ago, PDIII said:

I found this to be somewhat amusing...

Never post any operational model precipitation maps after approximately hr 150...someone please back up my claim!

[Amped]

Southern Jet is cranking on the long range maps. It resembles an El Nino pattern.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Southern Jet is cranking on the long range maps. It resembles an El Nino pattern.

That would make sense given the current MJO and SOI projections.   It would also put us in play for a great Feb if other things fall our way, but getting some STJ action is one piece of the puzzle for snow around here.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That would make sense given the current MJO and SOI projections.   It would also put us in play for a great Feb if other things fall our way, but getting some STJ action is one piece of the puzzle for snow around here.  

Front Back Loaded Winter!!

[BTRWx]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That would make sense given the current MJO and SOI projections.   It would also put us in play for a great Feb if other things fall our way, but getting some STJ action is one piece of the puzzle for snow around here.  

How is this even possible right now? Wow. Impressive turnaround to say the least!

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

How is this even possible right now? Wow. Impressive turnaround to say the least!

Both the GFS and Euro based guidance takes the MJO strongly into phase 1 in about a week.  The soi also looks like its about to fall.  That combo would support an emerging STJ.  Get the trough into the east while the STJ is active and we now have 2 of the major ingredients to pull out a late win.  It's way too soon to know if it will all come together.  Still need to know the specifics but seeing the PNA going up, ridging buidling west of Hudson Bay, trough coming back into the east, and the STJ getting active in the long range isnt a bad thing.  

[BTRWx]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both the GFS and Euro based guidance takes the MJO strongly into phase 1 in about a week.  The soi also looks like its about to fall.  That combo would support an emerging STJ.  Get the trough into the east while the STJ is active and we now have 2 of the major ingredients to pull out a late win.  It's way too soon to know if it will all come together.  Still need to know the specifics but seeing the PNA going up, ridging buidling west of Hudson Bay, trough coming back into the east, and the STJ getting active in the long range isnt a bad thing.  

So we're almost looking at a carbon copy of 2016 now, but with hostile teleconnections?...lol! weird

[BTRWx]

Not too shabby

[PaEasternWX]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both the GFS and Euro based guidance takes the MJO strongly into phase 1 in about a week.  The soi also looks like its about to fall.  That combo would support an emerging STJ.  Get the trough into the east while the STJ is active and we now have 2 of the major ingredients to pull out a late win.  It's way too soon to know if it will all come together.  Still need to know the specifics but seeing the PNA going up, ridging buidling west of Hudson Bay, trough coming back into the east, and the STJ getting active in the long range isnt a bad thing.  

How many of the phases of the mjo are good

[BTRWx]

2 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

How many of the phases of the mjo are good

knock yourself out! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

[frd]

56 minutes ago, Amped said:

Southern Jet is cranking on the long range maps. It resembles an El Nino pattern.

It is going more El Nino like. Thinking is that the La Nina is weakening or decaying , and in reponse the Pacific is changing .  

This change I also read might be responsible,  or is helping the changes you see forecasted in the NE Pac later in the month, as well as getitng the MJO to move into phases 8 and 1 .

Actually everything might be working together helping the + PNA to form  with the undercutting ( split flow ) jet

[BTRWx]

The mjo modeling also looks like it's going through a lot of volatility right now.  That could be god or bad going forward.  That would be a pretty significant jump into phase 1!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

How many of the phases of the mjo are good

3 but it's not static. Early winter 8/1/2 tend to be favorable. Later it becomes 1/2/3

[frd]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both the GFS and Euro based guidance takes the MJO strongly into phase 1 in about a week.  The soi also looks like its about to fall.  That combo would support an emerging STJ.  Get the trough into the east while the STJ is active and we now have 2 of the major ingredients to pull out a late win.  It's way too soon to know if it will all come together.  Still need to know the specifics but seeing the PNA going up, ridging buidling west of Hudson Bay, trough coming back into the east, and the STJ getting active in the long range isnt a bad thing.  

DT's week in weather is very interesting showing the several MJO plots, and other stuff. DT indicate if the pattern progresses like the models show its an East Coast snow Storm pattern. CFS shown on his video, + PNA, - AO, - NAO

What I found  most interesting about DT's presentation was his chart and discussion of the QBO. It was plus 16 and still increasing in a Westerly direction . DT feels that this has been a factor in the AO forecasts not holding with developing a deep negative AO value.   As DT states ,and Judah Cohen aslo mentioned in his blog recently , a strong Westerly QBO tends to favor a powerful PV located near the pole.

I do see there are "some " indications  of warming and some changes to the PV at the end of the month, so maybe that will play a role in the upcoming pattern change as well.  

Lastly,  DT mentions in his video that the turn to colder in Feb is likely,  but for how long is the question. He blames the role of the QBO on this and the uncertainty of the AO. 

I like what I am seeing and feel more confident that we will have an extended window this time around given the changes in the Pac. If the split flow materlizes and we get a -NAO we might have fun tracking some big dogs.    

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

[psuhoffman]

My thoughts after seeing the long range EPS

[BTRWx]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

DT's week in weather is very interesting showing the several MJO plots, and other stuff. DT indicate if the pattern progresses like the models show its an East Coast snow Storm pattern. CFS shown on his video, + PNA, - AO, - NAO

What I found  most interesting about DT's presentation was his chart and discussion of the QBO. It was plus 16 and still increasing in a Westerly direction . DT feels that this has been a factor in the AO forecasts not holding with developing a deep negative AO value.   As DT states ,and Judah Cohen aslo mentioned in his blog recently , a strong Westerly QBO tends to favor a powerful PV located near the pole.

I do see there are "some " indications  of warming and some changes to the PV at the end of the month, so maybe that will play a role in the upcoming pattern change as well.  

Lastly,  DT mentions in his video that the turn to colder in Feb is likely,  but for how long is the question. He blames the role of the QBO on this and the uncertainty of the AO. 

I like what I am seeing and feel more confident that we will have an extended window this time around given the changes in the Pac. If the split flow materlizes and we get a -NAO we might have fun tracking some big dogs.    

 

 

 

Thanks for the update!

[Bob Chill]

Yeah, suddenly strong consensus at range that the eastern trough cometh. Now we need the +pna to stick around for 4-5 weeks like the weeklies told us it would. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

DT's week in weather is very interesting showing the several MJO plots, and other stuff. DT indicate if the pattern progresses like the models show its an East Coast snow Storm pattern. CFS shown on his video, + PNA, - AO, - NAO

What I found  most interesting about DT's presentation was his chart and discussion of the QBO. It was plus 16 and still increasing in a Westerly direction . DT feels that this has been a factor in the AO forecasts not holding with developing a deep negative AO value.   As DT states ,and Judah Cohen aslo mentioned in his blog recently , a strong Westerly QBO tends to favor a powerful PV located near the pole.

I do see there are "some " indications  of warming and some changes to the PV at the end of the month, so maybe that will play a role in the upcoming pattern change as well.  

Lastly,  DT mentions in his video that the turn to colder in Feb is likely,  but for how long is the question. He blames the role of the QBO on this and the uncertainty of the AO. 

I like what I am seeing and feel more confident that we will have an extended window this time around given the changes in the Pac. If the split flow materlizes and we get a -NAO we might have fun tracking some big dogs.    

 

 

 

It's possible the qbo going so strongly to a west state hurt us more then anything else so far. We have had plenty of cold enso years more Nina then this be more snow friendly but most of them were east or at least neutralish qbo state. The qbo correlation with the pos AO wanes a little later in the season so perhaps it's something we can overcome in feb. otherwise will need a great PAC setup to make due without any blocking.