showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Not surprised. I posted yesterday that this had the look of something sneaky with the cold high pressing down and a stalled front to the south with waves moving along it. Its trending towards a light snow to ice event especially the norther part of MD and N VA. Euro has been hinting at this for a few runs. Been interesting watching the models on this feature. Just a few days ago the Euro had the boundary north of our area into central if not northern PA. GFS was south at that point and then started moving towards the Euro's northern solution as the Euro started moving south towards the GFS' old solution, Now we have the GFS moved back and in fairly good agreement with the Euro. Fun times. Question, if you know. Euro has a tendency to under do precip totals on the North and western sector when dealing with coastals. Do you know off hand if that may also be the case when dealing with impulses running across a boundary? I myself can't recall. I ask because we see a little disconnect between the GFS and the Euro in that regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Noticeable shift south with the boundary for this weekend on the 06Z GFS. Can be seen by looking at the snowfall maps that have shifted everything south 25-50 miles. The precip type totals show it well. Note this includes the rain we're getting this week before the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 When I saw both the GFS and EC prog a 1040+ High to our north (Hudson Valley) reinforced by the strong upper level confluence, and the elongated SW upper flow, I thought man that looks like ice for us. I kept thinking wait until this gets into the NAM's range -- say what you want about the NAM, but it does have better vertical resolution in the low levels compared to the globals. Thus it came as no surprise that the NAM (3km in particular) did better in the last fzra even in maintaining the sub-freezing surface temps -- which would be the preferred trend so long as it's precipitating and/or you've already got an ice layer going. That diabatic/latent cooling from evaporation and any ice that's melting keeps us stuck at 32F or lower a lot longer than MOS would suggest in these types of CAD setups. It'll come down to how much precip can we can squeeze out if this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: The precip type totals show it well. Note this includes the rain we're getting this week before the weekend event. 6z GFS is a nice little event even for DC, much colder than previous runs. The 12 hour precip map from at 84 hour has DC in the 0.25 contour and according to TT precip maps it's still frozen. Maybe an inch of snow and a little crust on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 EURO has DCA above freezing for all but 27 of the next 228 hours; however IF it holds, light snow could begin Saturday morning around 3 AM and continue into the early afternoon (0.19 liquid by 1 PM Sat when 800 mb T touches 0 C) before changing to light sleet/freezing rain (0.14 liquid). Ambient Temperature rising very slowly from 29 to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Another nice little uptick in our region on the GEFS snowfall maps for the weekend. Usually disclaimer that sleet and/or freezing rain may be included. Edit: Snowfall means is last member shown. 00Z Run 06Z Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 6Z GFS is .33 frozen out this way. Which is wetter than the 0Z run was. But Interestingly the 0Z gave my area more snow and less ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 This is becoming more and more likely to be the most significant event of the winter to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is becoming more and more likely to be the most significant event of the winter to date. I tend to agree. If the next 12 and 0z op runs hold the precip max in the same general place then it's looking really good for a prolonged mixed bag. Nice to see the colder push in the mid levels as we close. It's been the other way around most of the winter. With the surface front stalled far enough south it's going to be tough to scour the surface wedge because the efficient mechanism to do it will take time to come north. The whole setup is basically stalled for overnight fri into Saturday night. As pointed out earlier, there's an extended period above freezing prior to precip onset but if we all drop 2-4 degrees below freezing early Saturday then it won't matter all that much except main roads probably won't see much impact other than wet. Side roads will be a different story because the rain on tap will wash the brine away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Cobb output for westminster has about 3 inches of snow/sleet per 06z GFS. not much in the way of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is becoming more and more likely to be the most significant event of the winter to date. Agreed, for you NW folks who missed out on the last event. I managed 6" here from the Saturday storm, and no way this will be a big deal imby. Hope it trends to a warning criteria event for y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Agreed, for you NW folks who missed out on the last event. I managed 6" here from the Saturday storm, and no way this will be a big deal imby. Hope it trends to a warning criteria event for y'all. How did you did down in Bethany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: How did you did down in Bethany? I was in Rehoboth. I didnt take an official measurement, but I guessed 9". There was a lot of drifting. I saw official reports of 10 at Lewes and over a foot in other places in southern DE. I posted some pics in the storm thread if you wanna check em out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Does anyone see signs that this could juice up further as we near game time? I'm mean I'm sure we'll be NAMd at some point, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was in Rehoboth. I didnt take an official measurement, but I guessed 9". There was a lot of drifting. I saw official reports of 10 at Lewes and over a foot in other places in southern DE. I posted some pics in the storm thread if you wanna check em out. Nice. Sure beats the 5 minutes of flakes I saw for it. Knew I was out of the game days before so it didn't bother me too much. Did occasionally check for your pics but the thread was so active must have missed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Nice. Sure beats the 5 minutes of flakes I saw for it. Knew I was out of the game days before so it didn't bother me too much. Did occasionally check for your pics but the thread was so active must have missed them. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49506-1517-to-1817-obs-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4405970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49506-1517-to-1817-obs-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4405970 Nice pics. Best part of the whole thing is you probably didn't have to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was in Rehoboth. I didnt take an official measurement, but I guessed 9". There was a lot of drifting. I saw official reports of 10 at Lewes and over a foot in other places in southern DE. I posted some pics in the storm thread if you wanna check em out. Thats awesome , we have a place in Nassua . I would have loved to see it , up here in Middletown , DE , not that far away, I think we got 4 inches . So beautiful at the beach when you get coastal snow and drifts. Did you get a Surf bagel ? Yum yum, may fav there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, Scraff said: Does anyone see signs that this could juice up further as we near game time? I'm mean I'm sure we'll be NAMd at some point, but... We are pretty close to getting NAMed on the 12Z run. Actually. Let me edit that. We ARE NAMed on the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We are pretty close to getting NAMed on the 12Z run. Actually. Let me edit that. We ARE NAMed on the 12Z run. Out there for you yes... in closer to DC meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We are pretty close to getting NAMed on the 12Z run. Actually. Let me edit that. We ARE NAMed on the 12Z run. Nam is much more aggressive driving the cold air through our region then the 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Nice pics. Best part of the whole thing is you probably didn't have to shovel. Only when I got home lol. 3 minutes ago, frd said: Thats awesome , we have a place in Nassua . I would have loved to see it , up here in Middletown , DE , not that far away, I think we got 4 inches . So beautiful at the beach when you get coastal snow and drifts. Did you get a Surf bagel ? Yum yum, may fav there Yeah it was pretty awesome. And no I didn't. Not everything is open in winter. Mostly ate (and drank) at Fins and Dogfish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Considering the NAM is at range the details aren't that important as much as the trends. And the trends we see compared to the 06Z are to drive the cold air farther south as well as to increase the precip totals. On to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 34 minutes ago, mappy said: Cobb output for westminster has about 3 inches of snow/sleet per 06z GFS. not much in the way of ice. There she is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 35 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Agreed, for you NW folks who missed out on the last event. I managed 6" here from the Saturday storm, and no way this will be a big deal imby. Hope it trends to a warning criteria event for y'all. It's a lock. I have to head south on 81 Saturday morning. I'll miss whatever it ends up. I am worried that my first 100 miles or so will be rough. Good news is that Knoxville is supposed to be near 60 on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 We probably don't want to root for too far south with the cold push. Precip is focused on the stalled mid-level boundary. The further south the 850 line goes the further south the snowfall goes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We probably don't want to root for too far south with the cold push. Precip is focused on the stalled mid-level boundary. The further south the 850 line goes the further south the snowfall goes too. I am happy right where it is... My bar is set to anything over an inch. That would be the most for any single storm this year in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There she is! you love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Only 384 hours out, but finally a +PNA on the 6z GFS. Looks like we have a chance with this stalled front, then the rest of January is "january-thaw" time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Im thinking if every things goes well Saturday (next event) could be first winter storm warning for the winter/watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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