Ji Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That looks more like a heat dome over North America. Or am I looking at it wrong? its not the greatest look ive ever seen for snow production Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It is but it will be about as effective as this one until the pac shuffles It's a step in the evolution not the end product hopefully. That blocking in 2012 was one I felt we lacked luck on. Yes at times the PAC was hostile but there were periods mid December and again around xmas where we had chances and it just didn't work out. Some close misses and one system just failed to come together right. December climo can be problematic also. I actually did ok up here during that month. Had several respectable snows. I doubt that would be a shutout pattern in feb but it's not ideal. But I think it would get better after that. Goimg to need some patience because all the cold is being vacated. It's going to take some time. I'm skeptical of the day 14-15 signal for that reason. Might take a system or two coming through to reestablish enough cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That looks more like a heat dome over North America. Or am I looking at it wrong? There is a lag. We're just coming out of the putrid h5 pattern there. All the cold is gone. Give it a week to redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 12Z OP GFS agrees with that look of the 10 day Euro. Five days later, GFS completely flips the look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It is but it will be about as effective as this one until the pac shuffles Exactly. That is a useless, faux block. A response to the massive upstream AK vortex/trough. Now by the very end of the eps run, things appear to be shifting towards a more favorable look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Dec 2012 was good here, but it took until Christmas Eve to get anything. Dec 24 was 3", Dec 26 was 5.5" with sleet and freezing rain on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Nice to see the 18z gfs move precip in here overnight friday like the euro. The earlier the better because the column won't last long on Sat. At least for snow anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Exactly. That is a useless, faux block. A response to the massive upstream AK vortex/trough. Now by the very end of the eps run, things appear to be shifting towards a more favorable look. It's only useless because so much else is wrong. The nao isn't the problem there but alone it can't fix everything. A -nao doesn't mean automatic cold and snow. It helps yea. So many other moving parts. There are times if we gave a -epo and +pna that we want a slightly negative nao. A raging -nao in that setup would be great for NC. There are lots of puzzle pieces that fit together differently. I also don't think it's useless because it's a step to that better look you see day 15. The first step is get the dantes ridge to lift out of the east. One that pulls north enough it's going to put pressure on the western Canada lower heights to drop into the us in response also. There will also be a tendency for heights to fall over the conus under the ridge to reach equilibrium. Then the ridge in Canada retrogrades to fill the void in western Canada and suddenly the pna ridge goes up and the trough axis is in the east. It starts the process of getting the forcing behind the pattern working in our favor. From there it's like dominoes falling. Heights rise over Canada. Trough pulls back southwest of AK. Heights fall over the us. And we're back in business. But we have to go through the steps can't just skip to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 nao gives us an open ended straight draw as opposed to the gut shot drawSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's only useless because so much else is wrong. The nao isn't the problem there but alone it can't fix everything. A -nao doesn't mean automatic cold and snow. It help yea. So many other moving parts. There are times if we gave a -epo and +pna that we want a slightly negative nao. A raging -nao in that setup would be great for NC. There are lots of puzzle pieces that fit together differently. I also don't think it's useless because it's a step to that better look you see day 15. The first step is get the dantes ridge to lift out of the east. One that pulls northwesr enough it's going to put pressure on the western Canada lower heights to retrograde also. There will also be a tendency for heights to fall over the conus under the rudge to reach equilibrium. It starts the process of getting the forcing behind the pattern working in our favor. From there it's like dominoes falling. Heights rise over Canada. Trough pulls back southwest of AK. Heights fall over the us. And we're back in business. But we have to go through the steps can't just skip to the snow. Only point I was making is that initially the higher heights up there are not helpful, as its mostly a response to the deep trough out west which is flooding Canada with mild Pac air. I dont look at these pieces in isolation, but some do... oh look a big blob of red to our NE, its a block right? Well technically there is a big blocking ridge (it sticks around), so I suppose the answer is yes. But for a period of time, having that big +height anomaly there is not indicative of anything favorable here. I agree that it appears there will be some reshuffling in our favor towards day 15. A key here is the retrograding of the AK vortex westward over the Aleutians and getting the epo/pna to cooperate. That looks like a fair chance based on recent ens runs and also rolling it forward on the weeklies. Whether we get some higher heights in a favorable location in the NA at that time is questionable. I think we can roll with a Pacific driven pattern though with with a neutral AO/NAO. Maybe we luck out and and get it slightly negative for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nice to see the 18z gfs move precip in here overnight friday like the euro. The earlier the better because the column won't last long on Sat. At least for snow anyways. I wish that high would wedge more. I guess the upstream won't allow for it. Not often we see a 1040 with similar high over the lakes. That should be a good set up. Maybe it will be colder than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I wish that high would wedge more. I guess the upstream won't allow for it. Not often we see a 1040 with similar high over the lakes. That should be a good set up. Maybe it will be colder than modeled. I think it most likely will be colder than modeled. It almost always is. And the CAD almost always holds on longer than modeled as well. Although it appears the GFS wants to keep the precip frozen for forever out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think it most likely will be colder than modeled. It almost always is. And the CAD almost always holds on longer than modeled as well. Although it appears the GFS wants to keep the precip frozen for forever out this way. ^This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: ^This And when the euro is the coldest solution, you know the gfs is likely too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think it most likely will be colder than modeled. It almost always is. And the CAD almost always holds on longer than modeled as well. Although it appears the GFS wants to keep the precip frozen for forever out this way. I agree with this assessment. GFS is not the best model for diagnosing the boundary layer especially at this range, but it gives indication of the pattern setup. Personally I think we are seeing an unfolding situation with growing confidence for cold air insitu damming which could be significant. It is usually colder than what is progged and the shallow cold air takes longer to erode than the model shows. Need strong southerly flow to erode that shallow layer. I think snow will be limited, but good potential for significant icing IF this continues to unfold as such. As long as the high holds in 1040+ with strong damming, could be problematic especially north and west of DC and toward the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: ^This Yes. I think that as well. But just not sure how far south the front will make it. I actually do ok with CAD...might be the only thing. But it can still be 33, CAD and rain. Better when the cold is already in place. Half inch of snow might help a lot keep low level cold. Nothing ever essy at my location. Need to move to Manchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I'm just glad the midlevels are good when precip moves in on the latest op runs. Hopefully that holds and the early onset it real. I have yet to break an inch on a single event this year. Lol. I'm not getting nickel and dimed....I'm getting pennied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Only point I was making is that initially the higher heights up there are not helpful, as its mostly a response to the deep trough out west which is flooding Canada with mild Pac air. I dont look at these pieces in isolation, but some do... oh look a big blob of red to our NE, its a block right? Well technically there is a big blocking ridge (it sticks around), so I suppose the answer is yes. But for a period of time, having that big +height anomaly there is not indicative of anything favorable here. I agree that it appears there will be some reshuffling in our favor towards day 15. A key here is the retrograding of the AK vortex westward over the Aleutians and getting the epo/pna to cooperate. That looks like a fair chance based on recent ens runs and also rolling it forward on the weeklies. Whether we get some higher heights in a favorable location in the NA at that time is questionable. I think we can roll with a Pacific driven pattern though with with a neutral AO/NAO. Maybe we luck out and and get it slightly negative for a time. We have had a few periods of transient -nao. It hadn't been as awful as people seem to think it's just not been to a level that could help us given the crappy upstream forcing in the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 We have had a few periods of transient -nao. It hadn't been as awful as people seem to think it's just not been to a level that could help us given the crappy upstream forcing in the pacific. one interesting note - no matter how many models show a negative ao we still have not verified a - AO this winter - we usually at least go negative a couple times each winter. not sure how that plays into the -nao or other indices - and perhaps it means nothing in the grand scheme of things but interesting that the models keep predicting a -AO but we never get below neutral on the actual verification. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm just glad the midlevels are good when precip moves in on the latest op runs. Hopefully that holds and the early onset it real. I have yet to break an inch on a single event this year. Lol. I'm not getting nickel and dimed....I'm getting pennied You'll get it. But keeping frozen will be tough. As you have said, 30-32 and rain makes pretty trees. And we are coming out of warm after today with enough salt on the roads to turn them into jerky. Now 25 might be different. Don't see that south of Manchester/Frederick/Winchester But maybe it will trend better...colder. I would like half inch. Set bar low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Yes. I think that as well. But just not sure how far south the front will make it. I actually do ok with CAD...might be the only thing. But it can still be 33, CAD and rain. Better when the cold is already in place. Half inch of snow might help a lot keep low level cold. Nothing ever essy at my location. Need to move to Manchester. Neighbors house is for sale. Just sayin, this could be your view.... the other morning last winter Its worth the commute for me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 You have the MLS listing. Scared of being fringed though Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Neighbors house is for sale. Just sayin, this could be your view.... the other morning last winter Its worth the commute for me at least. Beautiful. Looks like Vermont. How bad could the commute to Chantilly be? Uglier than the upcoming pattern I think. Might have to retire there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Neighbors house is for sale. Just sayin, this could be your view.... the other morning last winter Its worth the commute for me at least. Where do you live? I know I should know by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ji said: You have the MLS listing. Scared of being fringed though Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I just went to copy the link and it's gone. I know the owner had a new realtor up there the other day so maybe they are going to re list it. There is also a chance the bank took possession and is looking to flip it. Its a modest house but huge 5 acre property. If anyone was really interested I could find out more info. The listing was 2749 ebbvale rd. Manchester md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Beautiful. Looks like Vermont. How bad could the commute to Chantilly be? Uglier than the upcoming pattern I think. Might have to retire there. Yea it's another world up here. Even in our bad winters it's usually good for at least a couple weeks of decent wintery scenes. It's very very rare to get an under 10" year up here. But the commute to chantilly...no. Although I did commute over 2 hours each way from Baltimore to Pine Grove pa for a year. But I'm nuts. It takes me about 90 minutes in good traffic to get from here to my sister in Reston town center. 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Where do you live? I know I should know by now. A little north of Manchester Maryland up on top of Dug Hill Ridge, part of Parrs Ridge. I'm at about 1100 feet elevation. Helps a lot in marginal temp situations. The mountains in the background in the one pic is looking northwest towards ski liberty in PA. The other is looking south down on the town of Manchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea it's another world up here. Even in our bad winters it's usually good for at least a couple weeks of decent wintery scenes. It's very very rare to get an under 10" year up here. But the commute to chantilly...no. Although I did commute over 2 hours each way from Baltimore to Pine Grove pa for a year. But I'm nuts. It takes me about 90 minutes in good traffic to get from here to my sister in Reston town center. A little north of Manchester Maryland up on top of Dug Hill Ridge, part of Parrs Ridge. I'm at about 1100 feet elevation. Helps a lot in marginal temp situations. The mountains in the background in the one pic is looking northwest towards ski liberty in PA. The other is looking south down on the town of Manchester. Wouldn't be so bad to State College where I go for work quite often. I have contracts that I manage with PSU ARL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 One issue for the icing potential is that we'll be near (over?) 60 Thursday and in the 40s during the day Friday, before dropping to just below freezing Friday night. Icing events here are good when we've been in the icebox for a few days, and all of the surfaces get chilled pretty good. They're usually not as dramatic/impactful/pretty when it has been warm, followed by a drop in temps just before precip arrives. Would certainly help a bit if some of the precip arrives at night Friday as the 18z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wouldn't be so bad to State College where I go for work quite often. I have contracts that I manage with PSU ARL. It's about 2 hours to state college from here. No direct route. I don't get up there much anymore. Last time I was a couple years ago its changed so much made me feel very old. Most of my old hangouts are gone. ETA: sorry for the off topic stuff. I'll be glad to talk more about this stuff in banter. I don't want to clog up the discussion thread. Mods can move this stuff if they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's about 2 hours to state college from here. No direct route. I don't get up there much anymore. Last time I was a couple years ago its changed so much made me feel very old. Most of my old hangouts are gone. This should probably be in banter but I love that town. Stay at the Atherton hotel so I can crawl home after several pitchers of PBR. Local Whiskey and the Cellar my favorite hangouts. Finish the night with a tray of fries for 5 bucks. Gotta love college towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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