PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Thanks bob.. Got it... Finally starting to understand the impacts of the various modes of circulation in that region. Still learning how they progress but getting a firmer understanding of where we want those features setup for cold looks on this side of the consus. I really enjoy reading Typhoon Tip's and ORH's stuff in the New England thread. Even though their weather/climo is completely different then ours they have good insight (like you provide as well) into the different "options" moving forward. One thing I found interesting in their recent discussion was the potential for model variability in the medium-ish range guidance due to a defacto pattern change... if/when we lose the -epo look in favor of a more +pna building. I think i have that right.... Don't want to misrepresent but I gathered that we shouldn't completely rule out the latter half of January, considering models typically struggle with the players changing on the field. Lastly, the mystical -nao is attempting to show itself so if that happens to make a sudden (and welcomed) appearance -- we all know that can also change any 10+ day look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Euro keeps the column mostly intact through 18z Sat. About a half inch of snow for for DC north and nearly 2" up in PSU land. Temp never goes above freezing through 0z Sun so freezing rain on top. Precip totals are blotchy so little confidence on who gets how much of what but a wintry event @ 4 day leads on this run. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 What do the Euro precip maps say for Sat/Sun? Any chance of a sneaky inch? ETA - If I'd only waited 30 seconds before posting... Thanks, Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Even with the blotchy precip, total precip panels through 6z sunday is between .4-.6 for most everyone. That would be more than a minor ice event for the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 EURO looks almost identical to its 0z run, maybe a bit dryer. Still some early snow then some decent ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro keeps the column mostly intact through 18z Sat. About a half inch of snow for for DC north and nearly 2" up in PSU land. Temp never goes above freezing through 0z Sun so freezing rain on top. Precip totals are blotchy so little confidence on who gets how much of what but a wintry event @ 4 day leads on this run. Not bad. The Euro keeps trending this thing better run after run. I think by Thursday we may be looking at our second most interesting event of the year. The potential for a messy Saturday is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO looks almost identical to its 0z run, maybe a bit dryer. Still some early snow then some decent ZR. It's snowier for all, and for those north of 70 by a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Wxbell had jacked up zoomed panels briefly. Forget what I said about .4-.6. More like .2-.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Wxbell had jacked up zoomed panels briefly. Forget what I said about .4-.6. More like .2-.4 What is start time on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: What is start time on the Euro? A small band works into DC and west between 6z and 12z Sat. Doesn't hit everyone though. It's narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Some years being added to the day 8 and 11!analogs today are pretty good. And not centered way off from flips to better patterns in those years. 1958, 1978, 1987, 1960, and 1961 all making guest appearances in the analog list now. Obviously those are picking up on Bobs point about the split flow and stj look emerging because a lot of ninos make the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A small band works into DC and west between 6z and 12z Sat. Doesn't hit everyone though. It's narrow. Awesome thanks, I have a flight out at 9am Saturday. Wouldn't mind if it were delayed/cancelled though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some years being added to the day 8 and 11!analogs today are pretty good. And not centered way off from flips to better patterns in those years. 1958, 1978, 1987, 1960, and 1961 all making guest appearances in the analog list now. Obviously those are picking up on Bobs point about the split flow and stj look emerging because a lot of ninos make the list. When were the first snowstorms after the flips in those years, were they delayed or pretty immediate in late January/early February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 12z Euro looks better at 500mb as well. Much flatter flow, which would prohibit warming of midlevels. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even with the blotchy precip, total precip panels through 6z sunday is between .4-.6 for most everyone. That would be more than a minor ice event for the burbs. i am seeing .11 for Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 23 minutes ago, kurtstack said: When were the first snowstorms after the flips in those years, were they delayed or pretty immediate in late January/early February? All different some had snow periods centered mid feb to mid march like 1958. Some were mid Jan to mid feb like 1987. That's not really how you use them though. Every year is different. But some of the analog dates are centered only a few days or so before something good started those years. That's a much better sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: All different some had snow periods centered mid feb to mid march like 1958. Some were mid Jan to mid feb like 1987. That's not really how you use them though. Every year is different. But some of the analog dates are centered only a few days or so before something good started those years. That's a much better sign. Great. Sounds like we could see dividends rather quickly after the flip. I sure hope LR models and analogs are onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 york PA is .only .21 for the wintry precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: york PA is .only .21 for the wintry precip Is that important? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Some years being added to the day 8 and 11!analogs today are pretty good. And not centered way off from flips to better patterns in those years. 1958, 1978, 1987, 1960, and 1961 all making guest appearances in the analog list now. Obviously those are picking up on Bobs point about the split flow and stj look emerging because a lot of ninos make the list. Euro day 10 reminds me of December 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro day 10 reminds me of December 2015. One thing the look suggests is that day 10 pattern isn't a stable setup that locks in for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Ji said: i am seeing .11 for Leesburg I corrected myself with a second post. Wxbell briefly posted jacked up zoomed panels. .2-.4 in general except for lessburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Is that a block there? (pulled from a twitter post!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Euro op might be trying to initiate the flip a few days ahead of schedule. Once the ridge pulls north enough heights under it will start to lower and things will flip. Another day of good signs imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 32 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Is that a block there? (pulled from a twitter post!) It is but it will be about as effective as this one until the pac shuffles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro op might be trying to initiate the flip a few days ahead of schedule. Once the ridge pulls north enough heights under it will start to lower and things will flip. Another day of good signs imo. Have been liking what I am seeing as well. Is it just me or are the GEFS and EPS ensembles strongly hinting at a significant storm somewhere in the east roughly day 13-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It is but it will be about as effective as this one until the pac shuffles lol...there are 2 blocks including the one blocking cold air from reaching us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, Ji said: lol...there are 2 blocks including the one blocking cold air from reaching us Is this what you're talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Is this what you're talking about? Lol...this is the opposite of this weekend. Heights are low on euro 10 day and it's torching while weekend has high heights but wintry mixSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 That looks more like a heat dome over North America. Or am I looking at it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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