January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[poolz1]

Not one fluke hit on the 12z euro ens members.....a barren wasteland for winter weather lovers.  Its easier to wade through the wasteland if there is at least a pattern shift to look forward to.  Lets hope things continue to evolve in the right direction in the lr.  Hey, maybe the geps will score a coup!?

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

Weenie roast! (from twitter)

At least we are with 90% of the rest of the country.

[Ji]

Not one fluke hit on the 12z euro ens members.....a barren wasteland for winter weather lovers.  Its easier to wade through the wasteland if there is at least a pattern shift to look forward to.  Lets hope things continue to evolve in the right direction in the lr.  Hey, maybe the geps will score a coup!?

Fluke as far as what? Snow or any wintry precip?

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[psuhoffman]

Not sure how we would get a fluke hit. It's not like a 100 mile shift would matter once we get past that day 5-6 thing the entire conus is warm. 

[Ji]

Not sure how we would get a fluke hit. It's not like a 100 mile shift would matter once we get past that day 5-6 thing the entire conus is warm. 

I thought he was referring to weekend

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[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I thought he was referring to weekend

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The snow with that is going well north of the D.C. area. There is an ice threat but that won't show up on those purdy snow maps. EPS actually doesn't count ice as snow like the gefs does. 

[poolz1]

Yes...sorry.  I guess it probably should have been posted in the panic room for it's lack of substance.  

I hear you PSU...My take on it's lack of flukes (snow) in the lr is it may be indicative of the crappy pattern and it's longevity.  If there will be  a shift to a decent pattern just beyond the D15 range I would think some members would be jumpy about it and start showing signals.  Looking at D15 ensemble members for snow is probably not the best gauge of a potential pattern change....LIke I said, I probably should have posting in banter or panic.

[psuhoffman]

Euro weeklies rolling. Out to 21 days so far. So far so good at day 21 ridge builds back into western canada, +pna, eastern trough develops. 

[midatlanticweather]

 

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Yes...sorry.  I guess it probably should have been posted in the panic room for it's lack of substance.  

I hear you PSU...My take on it's lack of flukes (snow) in the lr is it may be indicative of the crappy pattern and it's longevity.  If there will be  a shift to a decent pattern just beyond the D15 range I would think some members would be jumpy about it and start showing signals.  Looking at D15 ensemble members for snow is probably not the best gauge of a potential pattern change....LIke I said, I probably should have posting in banter or panic.

Patience is going to run thin but not a damn thing we can do about it. I've already changed gears for the time being. Outside of a small ice event there is really no reason to expect any type of fluke coming up for a while. It's going to be downright warm coming up. We'll probably have lows above freezing for a stretch. If/when something real comes back into play I'll start paying more attention but for now it's best to just forget about winter weather and enjoy the Jan thaw on tap. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro weeklies rolling. Out to 21 days so far. So far so good at day 21 ridge builds back into western canada, +pna, eastern trough develops. 

You know there's absolutely nothing to talk about when a weeklies play by play is in the thread. LOL

[Bob Chill]

But I will say I'll sign up for the entire weeklies run from d19+. AK/GOA trough retros and sets us a -EP0/+PNA for 3-4 weeks. Even some hints of the AO/NAO helping. Not a good blocking signal but far from a blue monster. 

Backloaded! Fab Feb! -EPO!!!!

We'll all have good tans by the time it sets up too. Boom

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

But I will say I'll sign up for the entire weeklies run from d19+. AK/GOA trough retros and sets us a -EP0/+PNA for 3-4 weeks. Even some hints of the AO/NAO helping. Not a good blocking signal but far from a blue monster. 

Backloaded! Fab Feb! -EPO!!!!

We'll all have good tans by the time it sets up too. Boom

La niño?

[poolz1]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Patience is going to run thin but not a damn thing we can do about it. I've already changed gears for the time being. Outside of a small ice event there is really no reason to expect any type of fluke coming up for a while. It's going to be downright warm coming up. We'll probably have lows above freezing for a stretch. If/when something real comes back into play I'll start paying more attention but for now it's best to just forget about winter weather and enjoy the Jan thaw on tap. 

At 40 years old you would think I could walk away from looking at the weather for a while..but I'll still be checking daily.

Not sure why, but I expected the weeklies to have a similar look to the last run but I thought we would be seeing signs of it caving to the consistent western trough idea.  Very good run and good to see it keep the +PNA/-EPO look.  Cold enough look after day 21 but cross polar flow established about a week later.

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

But I will say I'll sign up for the entire weeklies run from d19+. AK/GOA trough retros and sets us a -EP0/+PNA for 3-4 weeks. Even some hints of the AO/NAO helping. Not a good blocking signal but far from a blue monster. 

Backloaded! Fab Feb! -EPO!!!!

We'll all have good tans by the time it sets up too. Boom

Yea wow that was a nice run. Control has the same progression and is neat to look at for details. Look at the string of gulf storms coming at us week 4-5. Something tells me this weeks control won't show no snow when that updates later. 

The nao looks slightly negative most of the run week 3-6. Not big blocking but if that epo pna combo develops we don't want a 2-3 std deviation block or else its suppression city. That run as shown is just fine. My bigger concern is getting it to become reality.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Patience is going to run thin but not a damn thing we can do about it. I've already changed gears for the time being. Outside of a small ice event there is really no reason to expect any type of fluke coming up for a while. It's going to be downright warm coming up. We'll probably have lows above freezing for a stretch. If/when something real comes back into play I'll start paying more attention but for now it's best to just forget about winter weather and enjoy the Jan thaw on tap. 

True enough, that's for sure.  But the thing is, everyone in here should already know what we're heading into for much of the remainder of this month beyond next weekend.  This is no surprise, or it should not be.  You, PSU Hoffman, Wes, etc., have been discussing the fact that there's a wide consensus for an outright sucky and hostile pattern coming up.  However, also that there is a "way out" heading into the end of January and into February.  Nothing much we can do about it other than hope the positive signs after this awful period continue and do not get continuously pushed back in time.

 

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

But I will say I'll sign up for the entire weeklies run from d19+. AK/GOA trough retros and sets us a -EP0/+PNA for 3-4 weeks. Even some hints of the AO/NAO helping. Not a good blocking signal but far from a blue monster. 

Backloaded! Fab Feb! -EPO!!!!

We'll all have good tans by the time it sets up too. Boom

I'm very glad to hear this.  Given what was mentioned earlier from today's EPS (PSU mentioned this), this sounds like a nice progression into hopefully something good for the last half of the winter.  At least perhaps some real opportunities and not "yawn...wake me up next year!"  Sounds very consistent with what the weeklies showed last week, so I hope that signal is legitimate.  It would be a source of some amusement if, after all the indications and calls for a "front loaded" winter, we end up with something like 2015 with February and early March being the coldest and snowiest part!  Heck, I'll take it if we can still score something to salvage a respectable season.  Doesn't have to be a HECS or even a near-HECS.  I'd take a couple of the storms we got in 2014/2015 and call it a winter!

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You know there's absolutely nothing to talk about when a weeklies play by play is in the thread. LOL

I agree. It's a sign of how bad it is. And it's mostly just for fun. But i guess I'm an optimist so I'd rather focus on whatever good I can find then wallow in the bad. Not to say I'm immune to negativity. I had a classic meltdown in march back in 2008 on eastern I think after one last fail. That year beat me down and it came after a pretty crappy year for this areas standards in 2007 also. 

But I also just have a feeling things will turn around. Take this with a grain of salt because most of its just a gut feeling but something keeps telling me not to give up on pulling out a decent period this winter. I'm not expecting some 1958 back half historic year or anything but a last minute save of respectability maybe. 

Other then just a gut feeling something about all the moving parts this year, the tropical state, pacific pattern, qbo, warm Atlantic sst, fading weak Nina (or whatever) the abundance of analogs to this pattern that flipped cold/snowy late, and yes the weeklies showing a consistent pattern evolution that has been moving along steadily in time and most importantly makes sense when I look at it from a "what should happen" sort of way, has me feeling we still have a chance for a money period. 

This could just be my brain playing tricks on me trying to keep my spirits up but I guess because if that I was legitimately more interested in seeing this run of the weeklies then I probably should be.  As we have discussed the long range guidance often seems to lean on persistence a lot. So to see the euro continue to flip the pattern and move the flip closer in time is somewhat notable. Plus we're now getting the changes into the more believable week 3 timeframe. Yea I know laugh at that but week 3 when the flip has been consistent for several runs gives me some confidence we're not just being played for suckers by dr no. For several runs it's been showing this and the EPS has started to show signs of getting there the last couple days, and so I guess I just wanted to see confirmation my hopes are still validated at least for now. This run certainly didn't disappoint me and if anything was better then I expected. 

Again take most of this with a grain of salt, it's way too far out to get excited, but I still have some optimism we're not doomed for the entire year yet. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

But I will say I'll sign up for the entire weeklies run from d19+. AK/GOA trough retros and sets us a -EP0/+PNA for 3-4 weeks. Even some hints of the AO/NAO helping. Not a good blocking signal but far from a blue monster. 

Backloaded! Fab Feb! -EPO!!!!

We'll all have good tans by the time it sets up too. Boom

Feb is gonna rock. At least there is a chance with that sort of look on the weeklies. Its possible we get back into something decent for the end of Jan. I am most excited by the -epo/+pna look. The AK ridge has been too far west overall this winter with tendency for lower heights over AK/GOA and western US trough. So freakin done with that look.

[PhineasC]

Rocking February and March is not new around here. December has sucked for a while and early to mid-January hardly better. February through mid-March has been our peak season during these last few good winters. It is not shocking if they produce the best of whatever this winter will be.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Rocking February and March is not new around here. December has sucked for a while and early to mid-January hardly better. February through mid-March has been our peak season during these last few good winters. It is not shocking if they produce the best of whatever this winter will be.

Except that la Nina was "expected" to bring us a Feb/Mar torch.

[WVclimo]

The suggested pattern progression on the Euro weeklies would fit with a 71-72 type winter.  Warm December with a SE ridge; an early January cold snap followed by another warm stretch with low heights in Alaska.  Then a +PNA for February with low heights in the SE.

hopefully we can pull off a storm like 2/18/1972 to salvage the winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Except that la Nina was "expected" to bring us a Feb/Mar torch.

The thing about that logic is there are examples where it just doesn't hold.

95-96 was a stronger Nina and was a winter that went deep into the season.

13-14 wasn't far behind this Nina and also went well into March

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The thing about that logic is there are examples where it just doesn't hold.

95-96 was a stronger Nina and was a winter that went deep into the season.

13-14 wasn't far behind this Nina and also went well into March

1999 and 2009 the only notable snow was march. I know there is a chart showing some correlation but there are enough exceptions and small sample size that using that to automatically say early cold and snowy is unreliable at best. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1999 and 2009 the only notable snow was march. I know there is a chart showing some correlation but there are enough exceptions and small sample size that using that to automatically say early cold and snowy is unreliable at best. 

Yeah I forgot about the March 09 storm, but I do remember Feb being pretty warm.

[showmethesnow]

 

Maybe we don't have to wait so long after all. Look what is popping up on the long range for both the GEFS and the EPS. And the GEFS already has the 850's in place with the EPS knocking on our doorstep from the west. Good look, shame it is at day 15-16. Fingers crossed. 

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

Enough support from the EPS and the GEFS to suggest the possibility of a little snowier outcome for the weekend event especially in the northern tier. Frozen precip (snow, sleet. Fr/rain) amounts are fairly light throughout the metro regions on the EPS with roughly .1-.2" and the GEFS comes in a little better with roughly .4+". 

[mdsnowlover]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Enough support from the EPS and the GEFS to suggest the possibility of a little snowier outcome for the weekend event especially in the northern tier. Frozen precip (snow, sleet. Fr/rain) amounts are fairly light throughout the metro regions on the EPS with roughly .1-.2" and the GEFS comes in a little better with roughly .4+". 

if its fr rain, sleet, it disater travel wise. plus a mess to clesn your car of. 2 ice events is 2 too many!!

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

if its fr rain, sleet, it disater travel wise. plus a mess to clesn your car of. 2 ice events is 2 too many!!

Are you always such a ray of sunshine in the morning?  I agree ice sucks but "disaster" might be a bit much to describe .1-.2 of ice. You could just wait a few hours until it warms up or they treat the roads before going somewhere. I know that's crazy though. Our stuff is too important to wait, better to just cause a million accidents. At least EMTs aren't bored then. 

[mdsnowlover]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Are you always such a ray of sunshine in the morning?  I agree ice sucks but "disaster" might be a bit much to describe .1-.2 of ice. You could just wait a few hours until it warms up or they treat the roads before going somewhere. I know that's crazy though. Our stuff is too important to wait, better to just cause a million accidents. At least EMTs aren't bored then. 

whatever

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Maybe we don't have to wait so long after all. Look what is popping up on the long range for both the GEFS and the EPS. And the GEFS already has the 850's in place with the EPS knocking on our doorstep from the west. Good look, shame it is at day 15-16. Fingers crossed. 

 

 

 

Pattern is progressing about how I'd hoped and on time. I think the ice threat is making it seem shorter but the ugly pattern really sets in today.  We punt about 2 weeks but it could have been worse. I've been targeting Jan 25th as a goal to see a flip and that looks to be about on pace. It's still far enough out to be skeptical but it's been moving forward on weeklies and now on long range ensembles and fits pattern progression on some of the analogs also. Hopefully it continues to get better as we get closer. Good things come to those who wait (as if we had any choice).