psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 54 minutes ago, yoda said: Those are nice... gathering March 21st was a Miller B? Or not enough cold air around? Cause BWI getting 11 inches and IAD at 2" seems to be a wicked cutoff I will plot it out in a bit, but I had this from the Feb 18-19 storm. Another really tight gradient system across our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Trouble is analogs are only good to the periods centered around the time of the centered mean. Much past those 5 days they are of little or no value by February and March they are pretty much worthless. I know, just dreaming If a similar pattern did manage to turn around and produce a good pattern later on that winter it at least offers hope. Not much more then that. Of course some total clunkers like 2008 and 1973 are mixed in equally with the years that flipped better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 12z EURO is kinda close at 132-144... decides that PA is the winner of a light snow event ETA: Or more of an ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know, just dreaming If a similar pattern did manage to turn around and produce a good pattern later on that winter it at least offers hope. Not much more then that. Of course some total clunkers like 2008 and 1973 are mixed in equally with the years that flipped better. Memory is a tricky thing, and I lived in swva at the time, but I remember 92-93 as a year with a good storm in early December of 92, and then basically nothing until early Feb. From early Feb through mid March it was cold and somewhat snowy with March 13 of course being the hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: 12z GGEM... hmmm... 138-144 Evaporational cooling could account for some of it but there is a somewhat weird jump south of 75-100 miles with the 850's from 132-136. Don't have the maps nor the inclination to look into it further though. Losing faith in this time period. Euro and the Eps keep the boundary up into northern PA and the GFS and its ensembles have been slowly trending north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know, just dreaming Sadly the way this winter has gone that may be all that we have this year is dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Evaporational cooling could account for some of it but there is a somewhat weird jump south of 75-100 miles with the 850's from 132-136. Don't have the maps nor the inclination to look into it further though. Losing faith in this time period. Euro and the Eps keep the boundary up into northern PA and the GFS and its ensembles have been slowly trending north as well. Well it could be more of an ice storm re 12z GGEM... looking at 1000-850mb thicknesses we are cold enough for frozen precip from 132-144... looking deeper into it MD just gets cold enough through the column for snow... C VA has a fun icy time... and in between who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 how much icy precip is showing up on euro on saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: Those are nice... gathering March 21st was a Miller B? Or not enough cold air around? Cause BWI getting 11 inches and IAD at 2" seems to be a wicked cutoff This is what I got for March 21 1964. Based on the precip totals I would guess it was a late developing miller b yea, places to the west got precip, like .75 qpf but once you get DC northeast those amounts went way way up. Seems everyone got some rain but my guess is places that got into the heavy precip from the bombing low changed to snow and that favored northeast and higher elevation also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: how much icy precip is showing up on euro on saturday? Ask Mr. Blutarski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Thursday and Friday is shorts weather. This might be Blasphemous but I'm rooting for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Memory is a tricky thing, and I lived in swva at the time, but I remember 92-93 as a year with a good storm in early December of 92, and then basically nothing until early Feb. From early Feb through mid March it was cold and somewhat snowy with March 13 of course being the hammer. Yes that's accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is what I got for March 21 1964. Based on the precip totals I would guess it was a late developing miller b yea, places to the west got precip, like .75 qpf but once you get DC northeast those amounts went way way up. Seems everyone got some rain but my guess is places that got into the heavy precip from the bombing low changed to snow and that favored northeast and higher elevation also. Carroll County with the jackpot....say it ain't so lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Carroll County with the jackpot....say it ain't so lol I moved here for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Day 10 Euro does show a trough over Japan, so maybe in a few days we'll see an improvement on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 That just looks like an in flux unstable pattern not something that's locked in. Where it goes is the 20 million question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ji said: how much icy precip is showing up on euro on saturday? Better look on the Euro then previous runs. Rough estimate but for the most part it looks as if most of the frozen (Fr rain, sleet) is confined to central and northern MD. Snow line is PA/MD line and north. Rough estimate of .25 of precip with a little more north and a little less south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Better look on the Euro then previous runs. Rough estimate but for the most part it looks as if most of the frozen (Fr rain, sleet) is confined to central and northern MD. Snow line is PA/MD line and north. Rough estimate of .25 of precip with a little more north and a little less south. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 51 minutes ago, PDIII said: Thursday and Friday is shorts weather. This might be Blasphemous but I'm rooting for it. You're not alone. 50 degree temps sound extraordinary right now. I'm not about this 20 degree life when it's not snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 48 minutes ago, 87storms said: You're not alone. 50 degree temps sound extraordinary right now. I'm not about this 20 degree life when it's not snowing. 55 and sunny is quite nice. Looking forward to dumping this cold as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Clueless said: 55 and sunny is quite nice. Looking forward to dumping this cold as well. easy on heating bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 55 minutes ago, 87storms said: You're not alone. 50 degree temps sound extraordinary right now. I'm not about this 20 degree life when it's not snowing. I chased (ocean city ) this past weekend. second best snow chase ever... so i am good for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: easy on heating bill And there is that. Honestly. Being a weenie is not in the best self interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Ji said: i saw a couple of 99's on the analogs too and we had a good hit in March 99 true, but while I don't remember what the overall pattern looked like, we actually scored on a fluke clipper in a fairly zonal flow situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: true, but while I don't remember what the overall pattern looked like, we actually scored on a fluke clipper in a fairly zonal flow situation Early march was legit nw of the cities. First there was a west to system that was mostly cold rain down there but 6" up here. Then a little sw came east along the boundary and trained a small meso band right over the D.C. Metro. Like 6-10" just west of D.C. Only an inch or two up here. Then a coastal a few days later. 10" up here. I think a few inches nw of 95. Mix issues 95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 EPS continues to progress steadily the way I expected. By day 15 ridge is centered just south of Baffin Island and starting to raise heights in western Canada and AK. In response heights are lowering in the southeast. Not there yet but another day and another step. So far at least it's progressing the way we need it too if we want a chance in feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 33 and rain tomorrow night. 33 and rain Saturday. Fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Early march was legit nw of the cities. First there was a west to system that was mostly cold rain down there but 6" up here. Then a little sw came east along the boundary and trained a small meso band right over the D.C. Metro. Like 6-10" just west of D.C. Only an inch or two up here. Then a coastal a few days later. 10" up here. I think a few inches nw of 95. Mix issues 95 east. fair enough. I was totally focused on that 3/9/99 event which, as you said, put down that amazing band right through DC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Weenie roast! (from twitter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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