mattie g Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? How much for Winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 59 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ex...day 7 wow..that looks like it has free euro precip charts too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, mattie g said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Baby steps continue to be taken each day towards the end of the GEFS and EPS runs. The ridge axis continues to lift a bit more each day and now signs of lower heights developing underneath across the south are showing on both. We are definitely not there yet day 15 as the CONUS is completely void any cold and it will take a while to get back to a snow pattern but its moving in the right direction. Get the ridging just a bit more NW and the trough should come under into the east in response. Then we have to wait for that cold up in northwest Canada to eject down and we could be back in the game by February. There are at least signs of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Baby steps continue to be taken each day towards the end of the GEFS and EPS runs. The ridge axis continues to lift a bit more each day and now signs of lower heights developing underneath across the south are showing on both. We are definitely not there yet day 15 as the CONUS is completely void any cold and it will take a while to get back to a snow pattern but its moving in the right direction. Get the ridging just a bit more NW and the trough should come under into the east in response. Then we have to wait for that cold up in northwest Canada to eject down and we could be back in the game by February. There are at least signs of hope. My guess is it will be another brief flip though. As a few have said, this winter seems unable to sustain any major torch and or any major cold snap either. It may continue that way. I think we had another winter(maybve 04-05?) where we never really sustained anything overly warm, it was constantly back and forth for 1-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My guess is it will be another brief flip though. As a few have said, this winter seems unable to sustain any major torch and or any major cold snap either. It may continue that way. I think we had another winter(maybve 04-05?) where we never really sustained anything overly warm, it was constantly back and forth for 1-2 weeks. It could be and that would be my fear. At least places to our south and north have been lucky enough to score something during the first two transient cold periods. Our region in general has not. If all we get is one or two more brief windows of opportunity and we don't get lucky I fear we could be facing a really really REALLY bad year for snow here. My optimistic hope is we get a better look during our peak climo early feb, that perhaps the tendency to get better blocking help later in west qbo years combined with some analog evidence that we may have a cold snowy feb coming and some luck help us score a couple decent hits and salvage a respectable year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It could be and that would be my fear. At least places to our south and north have been lucky enough to score something during the first two transient cold periods. Our region in general has not. If all we get is one or two more brief windows of opportunity and we don't get lucky I fear we could be facing a really really REALLY bad year for snow here. My optimistic hope is we get a better look during our peak climo early feb, that perhaps the tendency to get better blocking help later in west qbo years combined with some analog evidence that we may have a cold snowy feb coming and some luck help us score a couple decent hits and salvage a respectable year. Every lr model I've seen has February with more of the same. Of course, those are mean patterns, but it supports Snow Goose's thoughts that any cold period is just a brief window before going back to warmth. So be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 snowgoose89 what is your opinion of joe d'aleo of weatherbell??I read his comentaries occassionally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Every lr model I've seen has February with more of the same. Of course, those are mean patterns, but it supports Snow Goose's thoughts that any cold period is just a brief window before going back to warmth. So be it. I assume you mean other then the last two runs of the euro weeklies, those were a pretty good look for Feb here. I am curious to see what tonights run looks like, based on last nights 0z EPS. From the end of the run day 15 we could evolve into a decent pattern if that ridging continues to lift northwest or we could crash right back into a crap pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I assume you mean other then the last two runs of the euro weeklies, those were a pretty good look for Feb here. I am curious to see what tonights run looks like, based on last nights 0z EPS. From the end of the run day 15 we could evolve into a decent pattern if that ridging continues to lift northwest or we could crash right back into a crap pattern. we are at the point now of utter desperation of just hoping for one snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I assume you mean other then the last two runs of the euro weeklies, those were a pretty good look for Feb here. I am curious to see what tonights run looks like, based on last nights 0z EPS. From the end of the run day 15 we could evolve into a decent pattern if that ridging continues to lift northwest or we could crash right back into a crap pattern. No, the CANSIPS, CFS, EURO monthlies last run the beginning of December, and the NMME (Tropical Tidbits has it, but I don't know how accurate it is to be honest, but it's warm nonetheless). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we are at the point now of utter desperation of just hoping for one snowstorm I tend to take them one at a time anyways, until we get one I am always just looking for one. Then once we get one I will worry about the next and so on. But my expectations for this year were always pretty low, especially once things started to show signs of breaking the wrong way early on in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: No, the CANSIPS, CFS, EURO monthlies last run the beginning of December, and the NMME (Tropical Tidbits has it, but I don't know how accurate it is to be honest, but it's warm nonetheless). I think my comment came out wrong, I wasn't disagreeing with you, just throwing out there that we do have one piece of long range guidance on our side, at least for a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think my comment came out wrong, I wasn't disagreeing with you, just throwing out there that we do have one piece of long range guidance on our side, at least for a few more hours. What? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What? lol euro weeklies, yea the old euro monthly was bad but the weeklies have been run several times since then and cover well into February now so they kind of invalidate the older monthly run since they have flipped since then. Either way its weak support I was mostly just trying to throw some hope into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 As long as 1993 and 1964 keep showing up in that analog mix here and there at least we can hang our hats on that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: As long as 1993 and 1964 keep showing up in that analog mix here and there at least we can hang our hats on that also. its all prespective. Weenies in Williamsburg are thinking they are having a great winter. And they have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: As long as 1993 and 1964 keep showing up in that analog mix here and there at least we can hang our hats on that also. Don't remember 1964... did that have a good Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 12z GGEM... hmmm... 138-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GGEM... hmmm... 138-144 138-rain 144- light snow source weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Stubborn PV sits over Alaska all the way through 384 on the 12z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GGEM... hmmm... 138-144 2-4" across all of MD and extreme N VA... "sleet storm" for rest of N VA up to 1 inch of sleet Yes, I know its the GGEM... but its the best wintry run yet for next weekend that I have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 2-4" across all of MD and extreme N VA... "sleet storm" for rest of N VA up to 1 inch of sleet Yes, I know its the GGEM... but its the best wintry run yet for next weekend that I have seen good call on your part, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Just now, mdsnowlover said: good call on your part, Its what the model shows lol... so its not really a call on my part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Its what the model shows lol... so its not really a call on my part good find then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 29 minutes ago, yoda said: Don't remember 1964... did that have a good Feb? These are the snow stats for Feb 1 on that year for BWI, IAD, and Westminster MD. I would say these would be acceptable BWI Feb 11-12: 9" Feb 18: 7" Feb 28: 1.4" March 21: 11" March 30-31: 1.7" IAD Feb 11: 7" Feb 18: 5" Feb 28: 2.3" March 21: 2.3" March 30-21: 7" Westminster Feb 1: 1" Feb 11: 9" Feb 16: 2" Feb 18: 15" Feb 28: 5" March 13: 2" March 21: 15" March 30-31: 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: These are the snow stats for Feb 1 on that year for BWI, IAD, and Westminster MD. I would say these would be acceptable BWI Feb 11-12: 9" Feb 18: 7" Feb 28: 1.4" March 21: 11" March 30-31: 1.7" IAD Feb 11: 7" Feb 18: 5" Feb 28: 2.3" March 21: 2.3" March 30-21: 7" Westminster Feb 1: 1" Feb 11: 9" Feb 16: 2" Feb 18: 15" Feb 28: 5" March 13: 2" March 21: 15" March 30-31: 2" WOOF! thanks for that info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Those are nice... gathering March 21st was a Miller B? Or not enough cold air around? Cause BWI getting 11 inches and IAD at 2" seems to be a wicked cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 i saw a couple of 99's on the analogs too and we had a good hit in March 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: As long as 1993 and 1964 keep showing up in that analog mix here and there at least we can hang our hats on that also. Trouble is analogs are only good to the periods centered around the time of the centered mean. Much past those 5 days they are of little or no value by February and March they are pretty much worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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