January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[WinterWxLuvr]

Ok.  We've got a thread for the weekend threat/non threat.  

We can look beyond it here.

Mods a pin if you would

[stormtracker]

If anybody makes a storm thread before tomorrow 12z, I will come find where you live and gut you like a fish.  

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

If anybody makes a storm thread before tomorrow 12z, I will come find where you live and gut you like a fish.  

Uh oh... bye WxWatcher007

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If anybody makes a storm thread before tomorrow 12z, I will come find where you live and gut you like a fish.  

Get the knife out

[stormtracker]

Damn.  Didn't see that fail thread.  Alright. Might as well let it rot there.  0z tonight will plunge the knife in it. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn.  Didn't see that fail thread.  Alright. Might as well let it rot there.  0z tonight will plunge the knife in it. 

But he did admit it was a fail thread. Stay your hand, please! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn.  Didn't see that fail thread.  Alright. Might as well let it rot there.  0z tonight will plunge the knife in it. 

We gonna party Prince style ... like it's 1999.

Probably going to have that kind of winter.

[Bob Chill]

Weeklies are a disaster week 3-4 but winter comes back with a vengeance 5-7. 

Short synopsis:

North America under fire from the Pac weeks 3-4 and would be AN temps everywhere with warmest in the east. 

Stout -epo with +pna week 5 through the end of the run with BN temps throughout. Proverbial back loaded winter if that's how it goes down like that but nobody will be left to enjoy it because weeks 3-4 would cause everyone to jump. Maybe even me. Lol

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies are a disaster week 3-4 but winter comes back with a vengeance 5-7. 

Short synopsis:

North America under fire from the Pac weeks 3-4 and would be AN temps everywhere with warmest in the east. 

Stout -epo with +pna week 5 through the end of the run with BN temps throughout. Proverbial back loaded winter if that's how it goes down like that but nobody will be left to enjoy it because weeks 3-4 would cause everyone to jump. Maybe even me. Lol

We are going to have to punt a couple weeks of prime winter climo, which has looked inevitable for days now, but if we get the epo/pna combo working in our favor it may well be worth it. Not a bad look in the NA either. We have needed a big pattern reshuffle, and this looks like it may be it. Bring it.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies are a disaster week 3-4 but winter comes back with a vengeance 5-7. 

Short synopsis:

North America under fire from the Pac weeks 3-4 and would be AN temps everywhere with warmest in the east. 

Stout -epo with +pna week 5 through the end of the run with BN temps throughout. Proverbial back loaded winter if that's how it goes down like that but nobody will be left to enjoy it because weeks 3-4 would cause everyone to jump. Maybe even me. Lol

Yea but does it surprise you at all. From my post yesterday and yours today I figured we were on the same page regarding where this was heading. And the last pattern change came on faster then guidance expected so it's possible week 5 becomes week 4. Mjo is headed into dreaded phases so between a neutral negative enso and the mjo the tropical forcing is going to be hurting us for 2 weeks or so. The bigger problem is if we manage to escape what was a pretty good window overall with nothing then have to wait to feb for another better look. But if things break down only 2 weeks isn't that bad imo.  Especially if the look on the other side is as good as the one advertised. My fear or worst case scenario is the coming AK vortex pattern scours all the cold, lingers 2-3 weeks, then even in February we only get an average pattern which probably won't cut it when we already wasted 2/3 of winter and the conus is absent any cold to work with. Then we might be facing one of those 1/8 year truly craptastic winters. Things could still go either way imo. 

[Ji]

56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies are a disaster week 3-4 but winter comes back with a vengeance 5-7. 

Short synopsis:

North America under fire from the Pac weeks 3-4 and would be AN temps everywhere with warmest in the east. 

Stout -epo with +pna week 5 through the end of the run with BN temps throughout. Proverbial back loaded winter if that's how it goes down like that but nobody will be left to enjoy it because weeks 3-4 would cause everyone to jump. Maybe even me. Lol

wernt the weeklies great last week lol? Seems like a useless tool especially when it shows good things

[Ji]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Damn.  Didn't see that fail thread.  Alright. Might as well let it rot there.  0z tonight will plunge the knife in it. 

so far in the past couple of days...the Euro has given us a double digit snowstorm...and then the GFS gave us one last night all in this same Jan 6-8 window. All the digital snow man...we will be lucky to score an inch. You ever been to death valley?

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but does it surprise you at all. From my post yesterday and yours today I figured we were on the same page regarding where this was heading. And the last pattern change came on faster then guidance expected so it's possible week 5 becomes week 4. Mjo is headed into dreaded phases so between a neutral negative enso and the mjo the tropical forcing is going to be hurting us for 2 weeks or so. The bigger problem is if we manage to escape what was a pretty good window overall with nothing then have to wait to feb for another better look. But if things break down only 2 weeks isn't that bad imo.  Especially if the look on the other side is as good as the one advertised. My fear or worst case scenario is the coming AK vortex pattern scours all the cold, lingers 2-3 weeks, then even in February we only get an average pattern which probably won't cut it when we already wasted 2/3 of winter and the conus is absent any cold to work with. Then we might be facing one of those 1/8 year truly craptastic winters. Things could still go either way imo. 

Remember just a couple weeks ago it was all gloom and doom with talk of a prolonged warm pattern, persistent ridge for the east coast with a +EPO/-PNA and +AO/NAO. Well the AK ridge came back pretty quick and the NAO has at least been neutral at times. The period of cold we are about to enter seemed very unlikely. I wouldn't worry too much about the MJO either. The weeklies, and recently the eps, have hinted at a rise in the PNA and now that signal is increasing. Seems reasonable and even overdue given the predominant -EPO. There is always risk with pattern shifts but we need out of this persistent western trough configuration. Its been a complete loser, and the -epo/+pna combo should do the trick. We just need to get there and it may take a couple weeks. If we can get some modest help from the NAO in addition, the end of Jan and much of Feb could be our payoff period again. 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

wernt the weeklies great last week lol? Seems like a useless tool especially when it shows good things

They showed the relax period but it wasn't quite as bad plus we kinda hoped/assumed we would score something before then. A relax is more annoying when it comes after a possible shutout. 

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They showed the relax period but it wasn't quite as bad plus we kinda hoped/assumed we would score something before then. A relax is more annoying when it comes after a possible shutout. 

if we get shutout again this week..im going to get myself banned and cheer for the shutout that we will probably end up getting this winter

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies are a disaster week 3-4 but winter comes back with a vengeance 5-7. 

Short synopsis:

North America under fire from the Pac weeks 3-4 and would be AN temps everywhere with warmest in the east. 

Stout -epo with +pna week 5 through the end of the run with BN temps throughout. Proverbial back loaded winter if that's how it goes down like that but nobody will be left to enjoy it because weeks 3-4 would cause everyone to jump. Maybe even me. Lol

After closer inspection you may be doing week 4 an injustice limping it with 3. The end of 2 through 3 is a 10 day unmitigated disaster. No sugar coating that turd. But by week 4 the ridging is centered up over Hudson Bay and the Lower heights have moved out of AK. The week starts warm but ends cold. It's not a bad look and things are already shifting into what becomes a great pattern by week 5. Reds and blues in all the right places.  Considering we knew it was initialized off last nights EPS and how bad that was day 15 this was about as good a run as I feel could have been hoped for. Yea day 10-20 sucks but by day 25 we're back in a good pattern. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

After closer inspection you may be doing week 4 an injustice limping it with 3. The end of 2 through 3 is a 10 day unmitigated disaster. No sugar coating that turd. But by week 4 the ridging is centered up over Hudson Bay and the Lower heights have moved out of AK. The week starts warm but ends cold. It's not a bad look and things are already shifting into what becomes a great pattern by week 5. Reds and blues in all the right places.  Considering we knew it was initialized off last nights EPS and how bad that was day 15 this was about as good a run as I feel could have been hoped for. Yea day 10-20 sucks but by day 25 we're back in a good pattern. 

I sure hope day 25 progged good patterns end up better than day 7 progged snow storms. Lol

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

if we get shutout again this week..im going to get myself banned and cheer for the shutout that we will probably end up getting this winter

Go look at the 46 day snowfall for the euro weekly control. Nothing. Nads. Says we get to feb 17 with nothing.  Oddly it's not a bad h5 look the last few weeks but it manages to miss with all the storms. Has a hilarious snow hole over D.C.  If that happens we will all be banned by march 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I sure hope day 25 progged patterns end up better than day 7 progged snow storms. Lol

I know we're grabbing at straws but it's all we got.  Lol. Things have taken an ugly turn the last 72 hours both medium and long range. 

[Bob Chill]

50 minutes ago, Ji said:

wernt the weeklies great last week lol? Seems like a useless tool especially when it shows good things

Week 3 seems to be the only period with decent skill and consistency. Beyond that is jumpy. I don't put much stock in anything beyond 2 weeks and even then it's prone to plenty of changes. 

 

Now that we have pretty good consistency among ens guidance for d11+ sucking, the week 3 look seems like a reasonable outlook. We'll probably get a total fluke right in the middle of the crap. 

It's pretty rare not to get at least 1" at the airports during DJ. I would be pretty surprised if we get shut completely out this year before Feb. 

Outside of NNE and upstate NY, this has been a pretty terrible winter in the east. Even the upslope regions of the apps are sucking. Just one of those years I suppose. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I don't put much stock in anything beyond 2 weeks...

You're a better man than me. I dont put much stock in anything beyond 2 days this winter.

[RedSky]

Something has to happen to prevent a shutout, I managed 2" snow  in the all time unmitigated disaster January of 2006 among the isolated thunder showers.

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Remember just a couple weeks ago it was all gloom and doom with talk of a prolonged warm pattern, persistent ridge for the east coast with a +EPO/-PNA and +AO/NAO. Well the AK ridge came back pretty quick and the NAO has at least been neutral at times. The period of cold we are about to enter seemed very unlikely. I wouldn't worry too much about the MJO either. The weeklies, and recently the eps, have hinted at a rise in the PNA and now that signal is increasing. Seems reasonable and even overdue given the predominant -EPO. There is always risk with pattern shifts but we need out of this persistent western trough configuration. Its been a complete loser, and the -epo/+pna combo should do the trick. We just need to get there and it may take a couple weeks. If we can get some modest help from the NAO in addition, the end of Jan and much of Feb could be our payoff period again. 

I don't disagree. I'm also not sold we escape the coming 10 days with no snow. But I'm not throwing in the towel on winter yet.  I don't think the bad period will be all that long lasting. No pattern has been lately.  

[usedtobe]

As others have mentioned the Eruo weeklies are pretty horrid until February.  Not much skill at those long time ranges so it's nothing to get too worked up about but if we don't get something in the next 6 or 7 days we aren't likely to see anything until beyond the middle of the month. 

[mdsnowlover]

psu its good to be optimistic, I prefer to be realistic, and judging by my eperoence here in cent md, the odds of getting measurable snow in next 10 days are weak.Especially after this model debacle.However as anthony maiesllo said on twitter, which is kinda funny:

The models aren't any worse or "confused" or anything like that because of East Coast snow differences. Just you the forecaster is confused.

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[mdsnowlover]

5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

As others have mentioned the Eruo weeklies are pretty horrid until February.  Not much skill at those long time ranges so it's nothing to get too worked up about but if we don't get something in the next 6 or 7 days we aren't likely to see anything until beyond the middle of the month. 

judging by the comnents here, based on guidance pre xmas, we werent supposed to get anything before mid month anyway, so there really is no great lossas it was supposed to be mild for 2-3 weeks, if I,m not mistaken. 

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

judging by the comnents here, based on guidance pre xmas, we werent supposed to get anything before mid month anyway, so there really is no great lossas it was supposed to be mild for 2-3 weeks, if I,m not mistaken. 

That's not really how it works. We've had 2 discrete storm windows so  far. The mid-dec threat couldn't hold onto the antecedent airmass so no dice there. This week is only our second discrete opportunity of the season. Outside of those windows we've basically had no chance. 

Flawed patterns can deliver. We talk about them sucking in the long range but that doesn't mean we aren't "supposed" to get snow. It just means the chances of a storm are lower.  A discrete window in the med range can present itself in an otherwise crappy pattern and a good pattern can easily have no opportunity presented at all. 

When we talk about favorable long range patterns it doesn't mean we are supposed to get snow. It just means the odds are increased to have an opportunity present itself. Of course when it doesn't people like me and psu get teased a little. Which is fine because it's all in good natured fun. But in reality and as a general rule of thumb it's pretty normal to need 3-4 discrete opportunities to produce a single event. Just like boom and bust snow in the area, we seem to have heaters where our batting average is pretty high per discrete opportunity but overall through many seasons we waste more opportunities than we capitalize on. 

 

So if we fail this week it's nothing more than a normal wasted opportunity. We'll have more down the line. That's almost a guarantee. This year is proving elusive to connect the dots but that can change on a dime. Each opportunity provides it's own chance as success. They are all pretty much equal regardless of patterns in the big picture. 

[mdsnowlover]

sorry i never mentioned we were "supposed" to get snow, only that, based on commentsi read we were going to go thru a warm period. till possibly jan 17. Nothing more or less. We have gone thru, as you say 2 windows of opportunity, which failed. Getting snow in dec is unusual, jan more favorable. I,m not even close to being skilled as you are. I just read a lot!!

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not really how it works. We've had 2 discrete storm windows so  far. The mid-dec threat couldn't hold onto the antecedent airmass so no dice there. This week is only our second discrete opportunity of the season. Outside of those windows we've basically had no chance. 

Flawed patterns can deliver. We talk about them sucking in the long range but that doesn't mean we aren't "supposed" to get snow. It just means the chances of a storm are lower.  A discrete window in the med range can present itself in an otherwise crappy pattern and a good pattern can easily have no opportunity presented at all. 

When we talk about favorable long range patterns it doesn't mean we are supposed to get snow. It just means the odds are increased to have an opportunity present itself. Of course when it doesn't people like me and psu get teased a little. Which is fine because it's all in good natured fun. But in reality and as a general rule of thumb it's pretty normal to need 3-4 discrete opportunities to produce a single event. Just like boom and bust snow in the area, we seem to have heaters where our batting average is pretty high per discrete opportunity but overall through many seasons we waste more opportunities than we capitalize on. 

 

So if we fail this week it's nothing more than a normal wasted opportunity. We'll have more down the line. That's almost a guarantee. This year is proving elusive to connect the dots but that can change on a dime. Each opportunity provides it's own chance as success. They are all pretty much equal regardless of patterns in the big picture. 

You fielded that one way more eloquently then I could have.  Agree 100%.  Yea we are a bit unlucky if we get past this week with nothing, on the other hand we have only really had 2 legit threats and that is pretty low.  So IMO its kind of a combo of a pretty crappy overall pattern so far and bad luck if we get to late January with nothing.  Does that mean we get unlucky with our remaining chances, no, just means we will need better luck if we want to avoid a really bad year. 

In other news, I know its really really long range and likely a pipe dream, but I would take that week4-6 look on the Euro Weeklies and roll with it if we want to salvage winter. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

sorry i never mentioned we were "supposed" to get snow, only that, based on commentsi read we were going to go thru a warm period. till possibly jan 17. Nothing more or less. We have gone thru, as you say 2 windows of opportunity, which failed. Getting snow in dec is unusual, jan more favorable. I,m not even close to being skilled as you are. I just read a lot!!

Is something happening January 17th?  You seem to keep bringing that date up and I have no idea why.