UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 Great sign... GEFS have majority support of warning snows for 84 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 Euro a tad weaker with weekend event and pushes heavier precip south of 84 this time... 3-5" for most, 4-5" NYC and Long Island, I expect to see fluctuations like this, 6 days out still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 30 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro a tad weaker with weekend event and pushes heavier precip south of 84 this time... 3-5" for most, 4-5" NYC and Long Island, I expect to see fluctuations like this, 6 days out still What did it show on the last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 34 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: What did it show on the last run? Nice catch Careful / warm layer at 800 S of EWR . Could be a lot of sleet there at 12z 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Ukie also shows plenty of precip with a very strong high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie also shows plenty of precip with a very stronh high Can u post, believe it or not out of all the maps Wxbell has the ukie isn't one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 29 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Can u post, believe it or not out of all the maps Wxbell has the ukie isn't one of them Not home but saw it on facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Not home but saw it on facebook What's the ukie link? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 Ensembles continue to show high end advisory low end warning Snowfall for most the area GEFS/EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ensembles continue to show high end advisory low end warning Snowfall for most the area GEFS/EPS What day do they have It for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: What day do they have It for now? Sunday/Monday time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What's the ukie link? Anyone? Here's the link. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Is this current? None of the weather apps have this. That's a stretch 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, seanick said: Is this current? None of the weather apps have this. That's a stretch 6 days out. This is from TWC app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Weighted average heating degree days fell by approximately 10% today for the Day 7 GFS forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 todays para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 GFS + GGEM warm and cut... no dice on either, not even decent front end coating... Tuesday/wed ^ clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Fwiw navgem has a decent snow event Sunday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 That southern Catskills bulls-eye has been a semi-permanent feature this winter (excluding this past weekends coastal event). I can vouch for several feet of snow on the ground near the summits of Table and Peekamoose mountains on Sunday (3800+ feet). Ducking under tree limbs that are normally well overhead. Also small pockets of heavy glaze here and there (freezing rain, not rime, at least .5"). Very neat to come upon a small area, move quickly through it and then several minutes later hike through a similar area with heavy icing. But you could count the acreage hit by ice storm on your fingers. Pockets of colder air with no apparent rhyme (not rime) or reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Haven't had much time to dissect this one yet but from a quick glance I'm thinking more of an ice threat as opposed to snow with the strength and positioning of that high and the likelihood of the surface low approaching from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS + GGEM warm and cut... no dice on either, not even decent front end coating... You must be looking at a wrong run of GFS. 0z GFS 24 hour snow map at hour 138 on Pivotalweather shows a 2 to 4 inch snow event for central Jersey to NYC saturday night into sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: You must be looking at a wrong run of GFS. 0z GFS 24 hour snow map at hour 138 on Pivotalweather shows a 2 to 4 inch snow event for central Jersey to NYC saturday night into sunday morning. Referring to Tuesday/Wed event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Referring to Tuesday/Wed event Ah ok. I think we all know that this weekend is our only real chance. The focus for a winter event is Saturday night into Sunday. Last several GFS runs have been consistently showing the area getting a few inches of snow. Hopefully we can squeeze out a snow event thanks to the strong high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, winterwx21 said: Ah ok. I think we all know that next week is a blowtorch without a chance. The focus for a winter event is Saturday night into Sunday. Last several GFS runs have been consistently showing the area getting a few inches of snow. Hopefully we can squeeze out a snow event thanks to the strong high pressure. Models will be all over the place the next 4-5 days imo, with a warm/cold boundary battle...that's why ensembles show warning snows in some spots, while ops shows either nothing or low end advisory... my current thinking is more of an ice/sleet threat atm, with high elevation and laditude seeing some front end snow. first wave looks good for city/Jersey while fringing northern folks... but again concensus is poor and models are all over the place with exactly where the boundary sets up... highly doubt we will have a lock on this at all... right down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 proof of just how complicated forecasting will be for this system... Gefs look absolutely nothing like op, AND 48-72 hour fluctuations in timing amongst members themselves...probably going to be the toughest system to narrow down we've seen all year, Fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Central jersey southward... 1-3" everyone else is a dusting to 1" on euro for weekend snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 4 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Central jersey southward... 1-3" everyone else is a dusting to 1" on euro for weekend snow Euro shows 1-2 inches for the NYC area. Just hoping for more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 GFS with a complete 360 turn around from recent runs... takes both waves and instead cutting them, weakens them and pushes LP south of area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS with a complete 360 turn around from recent runs... takes both waves and instead cutting them, weakens them and pushes LP south of area Sections of Upton's writeup. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 958 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled weather with multiple fast moving systems expected to impact the area through this time period. The next chance of precipitation comes over the weekend, late Saturday into Sunday as a wave of low pressure passes south of the region. Latest 00z forecast guidance now showing low pressure passing far enough south, and strong high pressure to the north, to keep cold air locked in place for precipitation to remain all snow. There are some timing issues between the GFS and ECMWF, however both models are showing a low QPF event. More precipitation moves into the region Monday and Tuesday as a trough begins to move eastward. Temperatures gradually warm through this time, however some precipitation may start off as a wintry mix north and west of NYC before changing over to plain rain Monday afternoon. Mild temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday will return to either near normal, or below normal behind the cold front late Friday, Friday night through Sunday. Near normal to slightly above normal readings are expected Monday and Tuesday as warm air moves back northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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