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January Model discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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  On 1/4/2017 at 4:29 AM, donsutherland1 said:

In winter 2001-02, New York City received just 3.5" snow. On January 2-3, 2002, Atlanta had a snowstorm that dumped 4.2" snow.

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That same system I think 2 days later totally shafted us at the last minute.  It looked like we'd get crushed as late as the 06Z runs the evening before the storm before it ended up hitting PA and CNTRL NY.

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  On 1/4/2017 at 4:29 AM, Paragon said:

So you see the analogy between this storm and the January 2002 carolina coastal snowstorm too, eh, Don? ;-)

 

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Was the snowstorm in 2002 or 2003? I recall that the Outer Banks had a fairly large snowfall in January 2003. Atlanta hasn't had a 3" or greater snowfall since January 9-10, 2011. 

I looked at Atlanta's snowstorms, and just 5 of 19 that brought 3" or more snow to Atlanta also brought 6" or more snow to NYC. 

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  On 1/4/2017 at 4:27 AM, jm1220 said:

I'd probably give it until tomorrow 0z, if no meaningful change by then I'd say it's fairly likely it's for the fish north of Cape May or west of Nantucket.

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Agreed. I want to see what the pacific shortwave does on land tomorrow. It's gotta break off from the polar trough and form into its own. 

 

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  On 1/4/2017 at 4:33 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

That same system I think 2 days later totally shafted us at the last minute.  It looked like we'd get crushed as late as the 06Z runs the evening before the storm before it ended up hitting PA and CNTRL NY.

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I recall the disappointment at the time. Hopefully, the UKMET is onto something.

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January 2002 I think Don, it was a historically bad winter for us but I distinctly remember the historic Carolina coast snowstorm that brought some areas over a foot of snow.  Lots of mayhem down there.

We got ours next winter so the painful memory of 2001-02 was dulled.

 

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  On 1/4/2017 at 6:16 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

The Euro at hr 96 looks like last night's 00z at hr 120 but shifted a little bit west. Looks like the trough and the ridge out west both strengthened slightly. Good sign amidst a pretty bad 00z suite.

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The s/w out west was more consolidated early on.  And everything else looked slightly better aloft.

The coast gets advisory snows this run and it the Cape is crushed.  

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Looks like the big jump was from 2 days ago to yesterday, the one from yesterday to tonight was small, but if we get one more small jump like that......

But the other models also have to fall in line- and they've been going the other way.

Thanks for putting together the graphic, it really puts it into perspective.

 

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12k NAM is .3 on the coast ratios are 15 to 1 .

4k NAM has .5 liquid BUFKIT is 20 to 1 

the most aggressive of all the guidance 

 

This is still trending better

 

.3 to .4 at 15 to  1 looks doable with wave 1 here .

 

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  On 1/3/2017 at 9:13 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm/2430839568001

 

 

great model breakdown and pattern analysis by Bernie rayno... he's on board for a snow storm... watch the trends 

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Any news from Mr Rayno today.

gfs is a complete and utter disaster 

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  On 1/4/2017 at 4:42 PM, Animal said:
Any news from Mr Rayno today.

gfs is a complete and utter disaster 


Let's see what the UKie and Euro show. If those two continue to show a significant impact, I would say the GFS can be considered an outlier despite its consistency

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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