NortheastPAWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 So is this getting any kind of interesting? Do I dare stay up for the Euro this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: don't take it personally. i deleted it because you were quoting a one liner that was blatantly wrong. i am enforcing zero tolerance toward posting wrong info No worries. Also noticing the NAM in the later frames hours showing a better PNA presentation, ridge out west starting to look good. Fully aware it's the NAM at 84, but hoping it's merely helping to advertise the better trends we saw with the 12z euro/eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: So is this getting any kind of interesting? Do I dare stay up for the Euro this week? Lastest from mt holly nws this afternoon is still going with a fish storm. Basically carry on with your duties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I've been forecasting for the SE U.S. and we have to be sort of careful on the Euro. It really did some odd things down there from 78-90, It really does not resemble the CMC/UKMET at all there because its a furnace for places like ATL/GSP while those douse them with snow. Its way faster with no separation between the lead wave and the 2nd one which results in a slower cold push. This ultimately impacts the entire solution up the coast, so I'm not if the Euro can be trusted here yet because I'm concerned the upstream situation from here in the SE/TN Valley may impact things. Now this is a great post because its comprehensible, linear and logical. So I have to ask: if there is a Euro error is it being inested into the EPS and that's why we have a similar shift west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm/2430839568001 great model breakdown and pattern analysis by Bernie rayno... he's on board for a snow storm... watch the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The NAO possibly going neutral to slightly positive by this weekend could help bring this a little further west too. Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Improvements at 500mb again, wave is out in front of steering piece to the north, we need our wave to be a bit faster and out in front for this to come west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Positive trends on the 18z GFS. The ridge our west is slightly more amplified and heights are higher in the east. As Ulster said, the wave is in a more favorable spot compared to the energy to the north. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Either the Southern shortwave needs to slow down significantly or the Northern wave needs to speed up. Right now what you have on the 18z GFS is a late phase. By the time things get going, the baroclinic forcing has been pushed hundreds of miles offshore so the surface low has no choice but to head way OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nam has about 1-2 inches here for Friday for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3-5" for Coastal NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Gfs around a 1 for Thursday night. 1-1.5 on Long Island and central nj. Less north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Very noticeable shift west on the 00z GFS for wave 1. Looks like Jersey shore and NYC east scrape away with 1" of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Atlanta South Carolina crushed on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Very noticeable shift west on the 00z GFS for wave 1. Looks like Jersey shore and NYC east scrape away with 1" of powder. Yep GFS is still very flat with wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Unsurprised that this is the winter where most of central Georgia and South Carolina outperform NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Atlanta South Carolina crushed on the gfs I wouldn't call it crushed. A few days ago they were getting crushed on the GFS over a foot now it's like half a foot if that. At least we may get something Friday with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I am not fully convinced the 1st wave is done shifting west tbh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I wouldn't call it crushed. A few days ago they were getting crushed on the GFS over a foot now it's like half a foot if that. At least we may get something Friday with the first wave. Haha. GFS has 5-10 for most of the Deep South from Atl-south Carolina. That's crushed in that area and twice as much snow then we seen this winte r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm confused. Is this storm taking place Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday? Very confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Canadian got worse. <1" for wave 1 and wave 2 is now a total miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wave 1 looks like around an inch for the area CMC,Navy trended towards the GFS Lets hope it's a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: I'm confused. Is this storm taking place Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday? Very confused. Wave 1 is Thursday night into Friday wave 2 Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. That's if it even comes close enough to effect us at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just historic snowstorm for North Carolina coastline. Wow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Ggem .10 for wave 1 .25 extreme southeast nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Canadian got worse. <1" for wave 1 and wave 2 is now a total miss. It's in line with other guidance now...no surprises there. NJ shore eeks by with advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Give it until tomorrow at least, by then the disturbance would of entered the northwest and models would of gotten a better sample of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: Just historic snowstorm for North Carolina coastline. Wow, Reminds me of that January 2002 Carolina coast snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Sheared out garbage southern wave is too quick and outruns the northern wave. The trough also is too flat and doesn't dig enough. Result is a sheared out suppressed storm with no phase. The trough has to dig more and slow down the wave, or the northern stream has to be faster. There's still some time to change this for the better but it will have to be lucky timing with the different waves. A stronger first wave also hurts with the second one quick behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, TwcMan said: Give it until tomorrow at least, by then the disturbance would of entered the northwest and models would of gotten a better sample of it. I'd probably give it until tomorrow 0z, if no meaningful change by then I'd say it's fairly likely it's for the fish north of Cape May or west of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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