UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Nam looks good for a couple of inches of snow on jersey shore from Monmouth to cape may with wave 1. Alot of that surface map snow is too light to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I would think with the very cold column, perhaps some coastal enhancement and good ratios that 1-2" is likely on the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS scrape job for coast and Long Island on wave 1, wave 2 looks similar so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 No real differences on GFS through 90hr. 500 looks identical to 06 the difference at 500 compared to that Monday 00z fantasy run are outstanding, were nowhere near close to seeing that solution unless something drastically changes with the energy coming ashore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Most models seem locked on this progressive solution, hate to say it, most guidance supports an OTS solution as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Most models seem locked on this progressive solution, hate to say it, most guidance supports an OTS solution as of now Wave 1 might be the best shot at accumulating snow. It looks to be slightly amping up as it gets closer, and it depends on how fast it can develop as it moves offshore. Wave 2 is turning into a sheared out mess on the models, and that will have to change to get snow this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I think both waves look pretty bleak right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If you use the Ole NavGEM rule it would indicate we still have a legit shot here. It argues for sure the UKMET may not be out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If you use the Ole NavGEM rule it would indicate we still have a legit shot here. It argues for sure the UKMET may not be out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you use the Ole NavGEM rule it would indicate we still have a legit shot here. It argues for sure the UKMET may not be out to lunch What exactly is the "ole NavGEM rule " ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro is looking like the 0z run so far. Maybe a bit further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: Euro is looking like the 0z run so far. Maybe further NW Keep er comin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Fridays wave is weaker this run. Which helps with the Sunday wave. Can't get into crazy details because I'm looking at it on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro is very close with wave 2. More northwest of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro has advisory snows for costal nj and LI Saturday evening. 1-3 along 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looks like the PNA is coming up as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euros so close, but still OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euros so close, but still OTS The wave isn't as strung out anymore and the PNA might help. We'll see what happens in the next few days-if it can get its act together it can be a nice one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euros so close, but still OTS You mean OTS on wave #1 , from soundsof it wave #2 looking much more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Trends are slight but could be meaningful for the coast, if only the coast. We still have a day or 2 to see a bigger change. Without a real block we need the PNA to be more + than currently modeled. Pattern is still progressive, so this will likely just be a close shave without bigger changes out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Trends are slight but could be meaningful for the coast, if only the coast. We still have a day or 2 to see a bigger change. Without a real block we need the PNA to be more + than currently modeled. Pattern is still progressive, so this will likely just be a close shave without bigger changes out west. Are you thinking we get a nuke bomb coming up the coast with widespread 18 to 24 plus lollipops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12z euro was definitely improved. Take a look at the difference in trough orientation at 96 as compared to yesterday's 12z run. The northern vort actually starts to interact with the southern vort around that time. Note the isobars in KY/TN. The southern SW is just a little too fast, but it's very close. The PNA spikes a little bit more as well, so the ridge out west looks more favorable as well. The result is a surface low closer to the coast, see the second image for comparison from yesterday. It looks similar to the UKIE overall - hopefully it's the beginning of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Animal said: Are you thinking we get a nuke bomb coming up the coast with widespread 18 to 24 plus lollipops 1.8 inches with 2.4 inch lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Trends are slight but could be meaningful for the coast, if only the coast. We still have a day or 2 to see a bigger change. Without a real block we need the PNA to be more + than currently modeled. Pattern is still progressive, so this will likely just be a close shave without bigger changes out west. I hope it doesn't end up being like the La Nina snowstorm of Feb 1989, where Atlantic City got 20 inches of snow and we ended up with virga for 12 straight hours! (eastern LI got 2-5" in that one after everyone waited all day for the snow to start and all we had was overcast with virga.) The forecast for 6-8" of snow for NYC didn't change until that evening, long before then everyone knew it was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 40 minutes ago, Paragon said: I hope it doesn't end up being like the La Nina snowstorm of Feb 1989, where Atlantic City got 20 inches of snow and we ended up with virga for 12 straight hours! (eastern LI got 2-5" in that one after everyone waited all day for the snow to start and all we had was overcast with virga.) The forecast for 6-8" of snow for NYC didn't change until that evening, long before then everyone knew it was a bust. We have 5 days for things to go either way and we will see more solutions than the ones we have. It's not a great set up but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 the EPS mirrors the trends seen on the OP euro that i posted earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Not sure why my post was removed. Just noting that many members, as well as the mean show the LP center on the 12Z EPS is notably west of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 EPS looks way better than last nights run. As forky alluded to it has trended better with the PNA hence the westward shift. So far its the Euro/cmc/ukmet vs the gfs. Remember when we was rooting for the opposite just 2 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: EPS looks way better than last nights run. As forky alluded to it has trended better with the PNA hence the westward shift. So far its the Euro/cmc/ukmet vs the gfs. Remember when we was rooting for the opposite just 2 days ago? I've been forecasting for the SE U.S. and we have to be sort of careful on the Euro. It really did some odd things down there from 78-90, It really does not resemble the CMC/UKMET at all there because its a furnace for places like ATL/GSP while those douse them with snow. Its way faster with no separation between the lead wave and the 2nd one which results in a slower cold push. This ultimately impacts the entire solution up the coast, so I'm not if the Euro can be trusted here yet because I'm concerned the upstream situation from here in the SE/TN Valley may impact things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 38 minutes ago, mikemost said: Not sure why my post was removed. Just noting that many members, as well as the mean show the LP center on the 12Z EPS is notably west of 0z. don't take it personally. i deleted it because you were quoting a one liner that was blatantly wrong. i am enforcing zero tolerance toward posting wrong info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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