UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 HRRR says precip breaks apart before snow get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Light snow accumulations for area Sunday early morning, bigger event possibility looks to be Monday (daytime) as LP pushes to our south, With a nice HP to our north I expect to trend colder as it has been, we need a weaker LP solution like the 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 GFS regress's back to its cutter solution, very little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Ggem no better, warm cut mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 1-2" most of area Sunday on euro, 2-3 central jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 6:23 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 1-2" most of area Sunday on euro, 2-3 central jersey Expand Have to see if this will trend north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 6:23 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 1-2" most of area Sunday on euro, 2-3 central jersey Expand 2-3 on the south shore of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 GFS 18z doesn't look good if you want snow. Maybe an inch or two with the initial wave Saturday but that low cuts and we rain Monday. We need that low to pull out of the gulf much earlier and be stronger so the high doesn't move away. By the time the low makes that move the high moves to our southeast and the low cuts resulting in rain. Plenty of runs to go but it's not looking too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 10:25 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: GFS 18z doesn't look good if you want snow. Maybe an inch or two with the initial wave Saturday but that low cuts and we rain Monday. We need that low to pull out of the gulf much earlier and be stronger so the high doesn't move away. By the time the low makes that move the high moves to our southeast and the low cuts resulting in rain. Plenty of runs to go but it's not looking too good Expand What are you expecting? It looks good for some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 10:27 PM, Snow88 said: What are you expecting? It looks good for some accumulating snow. Expand Gefs looked wetter for Saturday so that's a start. I expect the trend to begin sometimes tomorrow if not tonight where we have a good over running system on Saturday and early Sunday followed by a Monday storm. The storm Monday is most likely going to cut but you never know with these systems especially with the strong high that's being forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 So far the Saturday snow doesn't look so great, but worth watching. I think we have to wait until closer to the end of the month for better potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Very odd, ensembles don't agree with op runs.. both EPS and GEFS stay par with most members 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 2:57 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Very odd, ensembles don't agree with op runs.. both EPS and GEFS stay par with most members 3-6" Expand We have not had an event such as this in quite awhile. SW flow events don't even really compare to these because usually the shortwave is much stronger. The general tendency is for the models to be relatively bad with QPF on these events beyond 48-60 hours because its pure overrunning and I don't think the non high res models usually pick up on things well with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 3:22 AM, SnowGoose69 said: We have not had an event such as this in quite awhile. SW flow events don't even really compare to these because usually the shortwave is much stronger. The general tendency is for the models to be relatively bad with QPF on these events beyond 48-60 hours because its pure overrunning and I don't think the non high res models usually pick up on things well with these. Expand Areas north of 84 need to watch for prolong icing event, not depicted on surface maps, but areas are below 0c at 850 and low 30s at onset, heavy precip and damning could keep some interior section snow/ice longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Same on GFS, below 0c 850 temps low 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 3:44 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Same on GFS, below 0c 850 temps low 30s Expand On 1/11/2017 at 3:22 AM, SnowGoose69 said: We have not had an event such as this in quite awhile. SW flow events don't even really compare to these because usually the shortwave is much stronger. The general tendency is for the models to be relatively bad with QPF on these events beyond 48-60 hours because its pure overrunning and I don't think the non high res models usually pick up on things well with these. Expand I think that snowgoose is speaking about the weekend threat, or he should be at least. The weekend system a lot of potential. Take a look at the ggem almost exploding precipitation across much of our regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 3:44 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Same on GFS, below 0c 850 temps low 30s Expand On 1/11/2017 at 3:22 AM, SnowGoose69 said: We have not had an event such as this in quite awhile. SW flow events don't even really compare to these because usually the shortwave is much stronger. The general tendency is for the models to be relatively bad with QPF on these events beyond 48-60 hours because its pure overrunning and I don't think the non high res models usually pick up on things well with these. Expand I think that snowgoose is speaking about the weekend or he should be at least. The weekend system a lot of potential. Take a look at the ggem almost exploding precipitation across much of our regions. P.s. Ulsterfeen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 5:26 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said: I think that snowgoose is speaking about the weekend or he should be at least. The weekend system a lot of potential. Take a look at the ggem almost exploding precipitation across much of our regions. Expand Weekend event is dead IMO, unless your in central jersey where 1-3" is a good possibility slips an extremely weak area of LP south of our region then enhances it about 500 miles offshore... wouldn't necessarily call it exploding ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 granted this is still 5 days out, trends work both ways... and this weekend has certainly trended toward a weaker southern wave pushing through followed by a cutting rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Gefs members still don't agree with OP for Sunday wave, stronger and further north with LP sliding through area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Honestly after last weeks model debacle, anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 The 12z GFS brings us highs in the 50's at least 5 or 6 times in the next two weeks with zero snow threats. Looks like mostly dry and pleasent weather to close out January. Hopefully an early Spring is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 a few weeks ago nobody including the models predicted the snow we got in the nyc long island area.. you can't be trusting the models more than a week out at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 5:02 PM, NJwx85 said: The 12z GFS brings us highs in the 50's at least 5 or 6 times in the next two weeks with zero snow threats. Looks like mostly dry and pleasent weather to close out January. Hopefully an early Spring is in order. Expand January is dead for sure... what a waste of early cold, hoping to atleast hit average snowfall between Feb/March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 5:15 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: January is dead for sure... what a waste of early cold, hoping to atleast hit average snowfall between Feb/March Expand Yeah, this looks more like March than January. February is the wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Gefs is more aggressive for Saturday than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 5:45 PM, Snow88 said: Gefs is more aggressive for Saturday than the op Expand As it always been. Normally it would agree with the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 5:45 PM, Snow88 said: Gefs is more aggressive for Saturday than the op Expand On 1/11/2017 at 5:02 PM, NJwx85 said: The 12z GFS brings us highs in the 50's at least 5 or 6 times in the next two weeks with zero snow threats. Looks like mostly dry and pleasent weather to close out January. Hopefully an early Spring is in order. Expand Which is it. is it time to cancel winter on the 11th of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 5:55 PM, Animal said: Which is it. is it time to cancel winter on the 11th of January. Expand While it's true that the GEFS are a bit more enthusiastic, they still reload the torch by the middle of the month and persists through the end of January, so I'm not really sure what he's referring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 When a 384hr GFS run in the middle of January only gives the area about a tenth of an inch of total snowfall accumulation you know it's going to be painful for the snow weenies. Sort of like dropping a slug into a cup of salt. Even New England receives next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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