UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I've seen these kind of threads in other forums and figured we should give it a try, too many people are jumping the gun and starting early storm threats to discuss 6-10 day model runs, or a monthly disco/obs threads clogged with play by plays. this threads to post any and all Model run discussions for upcoming events outside of the storm threat thread range ( which should be no more than 3-4 days out... Mods if you feel this thread isn't needed please delete, if not could you please pin thanks much and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 The amount of GEFS members that bring this up the coast is something to looK twice at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I think this is a good idea. Keep the other thread for pattern/temp discussion and general obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I think this is a good idea. Keep the other thread for pattern/temp discussion and general obs. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Do you guys not do individual storm threads anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: Do you guys not do individual storm threads anymore? Im sure I'm alone here.... but I wish we didn't....I think individual storm threads are awful and get derailed fast...but they've always been the only place to discuss model runs, play by plays, etc... personally I think all model threats should be discussed here, and then an OBS thread should be started day of or day before event to discuss nowcasting/ground obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Big differences at 500mb between the GFS and Euro. The shortwave on the Euro just gets sheared while the GFS keeps it intact and moves it slower. Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Very little change on euro, separate strung out pieces of energy, never digs like GFS, similar to ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ggem for wave 1 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The euro continues with phasing the vort out west into the trough earlier on. In return we get a sheared out wave 1 and wave two gets crushed south. 1 inch or less Thursday night and cold and dry on the weekend Gfs is on its own with wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 inches on the mean for wave 1 on the eps. No wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 2 inches on the mean for wave 1 on the eps. No wave 2 It's actually more robust with wave 1. Maybe wave 1 trends stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 End of the nam looks to bring wave 1 into play for everyone Theres a lot of lift present on the nam at 500mb, should do for some nice enhancement along the coast with wave 1, tomorrow's Nam runs should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 20 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Anyone see the gfs? Nothing with wave 2 Wave 1 went west Time to watch wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On the NAM, a solid inch has fallen and still snowing at hour 84. Wave 1 definitely bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nothing with wave 2 Wave 1 went west Time to watch wave 1 Example of what not to post in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC has a few inches for the area Both the Ukie and CMC like wave 2 This too. Descriptions, 500mb maps, something...anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Here is the 0z Ukie. It looks better than past runs for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Here is the 0z Ukie. It looks better than past runs for wave 2. And ends up here. Unless the storm hooks back west from out in the Atlantic in a short amount of time, this looks like a track near or just outside the BM as the storm bombs out. Obviously I'm taking the solution with a grain of salt but it's nice to see something positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: And ends up here. Unless the storm hooks back west from out in the Atlantic in a short amount of time, this looks like a track near or just outside the BM as the storm bombs out. Obviously I'm taking the solution with a grain of salt but it's nice to see something positive. I tend to agree. That's a decent look... from what's available. Toggling between the 12z and 00z GGEM there appear to be significant improvements. Steps in the positive direction outside of the GFS so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Per the MA forum, the 0z EURO OP has no ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 41 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Per the MA forum, the 0z EURO OP has no ensemble support. It has support from the Ukie and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, NortheastPAWx said: Per the MA forum, the 0z EURO OP has no ensemble support. It has very little but there are about 8 members that bring it up coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It has very little but there are about 8 members that bring it up coast Still plenty of time for this to change for the better. I like the ukmet and cmc. Very excited for tomorrow's runs more tHan today's. Still in Aruba waiting to leave tomorrow. Ulster please update us with model runs ur good at it. Yanks is slacking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Anything on the NAM? I know its out of range.. But for the Set up in pac nw an coming this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Anything on the NAM? I know its out of range.. But for the Set up in pac nw an coming this way Only at hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Eastern LI and parts of central jersey could see some light accumulation with wave 1, per Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Is it stronger coming on shore? How she looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Is it stronger coming on shore? How she looking? Wave 2 doesn't look much different than GFS at 500 or the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam looks good for a couple of inches of snow on jersey shore from Monmouth to cape may with wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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