John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, rdwhynot said: Greetings to you all... I'm new over here, but was active on Talkweather before it's unfortunate demise. Hopefully here in Central Alabama we will see a little white stuff this weekend. Welcome to the board, Alabama looks to be in a good spot to see significant winter weather. Large area of sleet/zr below the snow. Cold, for once, doesn't seem to be the biggest issue as of this time. Subject to change of course, as with all storms 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The CMC is stronger w the first system. It is not so much that the CMC is juicer here w the second system IMO. It is that we get 1-2" w the first system in E TN north of say Sweetater. That is interesting. Also, I would recommend being careful extrapolating snow amounts on LR models if you live near the mountains. The models seem to buffer what would be a sharp gradient due to elevation. Thus, it balloons amounts in the foothills. I live in one of those areas in NE TN. Our forecast totals are too high for almost every storm on LR models. Now, short range models do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: You going to start a thread on VQ if this holds? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk For sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Actually, you certainly are not alone there are a lot of people like us. Coming to you from Southwest Virginia! Technically still in the Tennessee Valley. I find this region a lot more relatable than the southeast sub-forum region. Just created an account though I have been through the forums for a while as a guest. 25 minutes ago, rdwhynot said: Greetings to you all... I'm new over here, but was active on Talkweather before it's unfortunate demise. Hopefully here in Central Alabama we will see a little white stuff this weekend. Blunder, 1234snow is from Gate City and DanielBoone is from the KY/VA border maybe near Jonesville I think. I am in Kingsport. And yes, this forum does a decent job covering southwest VA. Rdwhynot, glad to see our Alabama folks posting for this storm. This is a great forum IMO. Welcome to you both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The CMC is stronger w the first system. It is not so much that the CMC is juicer here w the second system IMO. It is that we get 1-2" w the first system in E TN north of say Sweetater. That is interesting. Also, I would recommend being careful extrapolating snow amounts on LR models if you live near the mountains. The models seem to buffer what would be a sharp gradient due to elevation. Thus, it balloons amounts in the foothills. I live in one of those areas in NE TN. Our forecast totals are too for almost every storm on LR models. Now, short range models do much better. Does the UKIE have maps between 72 and 96 on the pay sites? Curious, as it's location at 96 is more in line with a storm that tracks across Mobile and maybe South Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: Does the UKIE have maps between 72 and 96 on the pay sites? Curious, as it's location at 96 is more in line with a storm that tracks across Mobile and maybe South Georgia. That is my interpretation as well. We will see if the Euro tracks near there. Right now, trend for slp/wave placement are important. I agree. Will see if I can find a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looking at the cmc snow maps on tropical tidbits vrs last 3 runs you can see the heavier snow line working it's way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Looking at the cmc snow maps on tropical tidbits vrs last 3 runs you can see the heavier snow line working it's way north. Awesome!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro is rolling. Through 24 the second piece of energy is 300 miles NW and 3 mb stronger than it was on yesterday's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 At 48, almost a mirror image from yesterday's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 72 5mb stronger than 12z yesterday. Maybe 50 miles further NW in New Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: Euro is rolling. Through 24 the second piece of energy is 300 miles NW and 3 mb stronger than it was on yesterday's 12z. Is that good for us John?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Is that good for us John?? Usually the further north a wave enters, the further north it exits. But by hour 48 it had managed to match yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Swing and miss! The joy of southern snow forecasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If the CMC continues to trend northward and proves to predict the track pretty well we may be in for a lot more then local residents in our area are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 The precip shield doesn't grow like it had on past runs, but the track itself was further North and West than yesterday. Also a deeper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro at 96 UKIE at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 GGEM at 96 GFS at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 24 hours ago the GFS was a perfect track and the others were a bit far south and east. Today the guidance has move N and W except for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Non-Ratio adjusted Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Because it was a little faster and further N and W, the deeper south areas don't have favorable 850s. So it takes snow off the table for many way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 mem .09 bna .15 tri.40 cha...07 all the stations i know around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Accumulation amounts in the eastern valley are probably overdone on the new Euro too.....Plateau, Smokies and NE TN will at least get some accumulation. Still a long way to go, though, before verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: mem .09 bna .15 tri.40 cha...07 all the stations i know around here Is this up or down from previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 left out tys .33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, weathertree4u said: Is this up or down from previous run? believe its up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Still too early to worry about track. Four to five days out it is subject to 150 mile shifts. Cold air is shown in place for our region. Surface high press north is consistent. Focus on the positive or go insane. This is the South, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: believe its up 1 minute ago, weathertree4u said: Is this up or down from previous run? down,just looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: believe its up As is that would be an inch or so of fluffy snow for the Nashville area, seen bad things around here with less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 mem .09 bna .15 tri.40 cha...07 all the stations i know around hereTYS?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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