Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Wouldn't a stronger system pull it a little more north? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Powell, I was just thinking this. If this is a Miller A-ish...it could IMO. The other thing is that almost all models have driven the Arctic boundary too deep into the South this winter. Sometimes these Pacific systems are tough for the models because they have less data than say a northern system dropping into a trough that has been sampled well over Canada. Also, I like the latitude rule that where the system enters on the w coast is where it leaves on the EC. Still waiting for this to come ashore and then I think things get sorted out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Last winter(or the one before) we had systems that looked like sliders that would traverse through the northern tier of the Gulf states. They would intensify at the last minute and a shadow would pull west of the Apps. We would get a warm nose and snow totals were cut. Just a good example of stronger systems pull northward. Not saying this pulls west of the Apps at all. So, if stronger it pulls northward IMO. Who knows if the NAM is right. It does have a habit IMO at over-amping systems at this range. That might explain the orthward jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Wouldn't a stronger system pull it a little more north?Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkYes. It absolutely would. But the stronger system also carries the risk of warm air advection messing us up with the frozen precip.Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 8 hours ago, Chinook said: Yep, I just checked the 00z Euro, and it does have 1-3" for eastern Tennessee, and the huge blizzard for NC you are seeing on the -clown- map posted above is really in the Euro output. As usual, 5+ day predictions of snow are pretty difficult. As you weather fans know, many times in past years, sleet/freezing rain affect AL/GA/SC/NC/VA when there was -supposed- to be a snowstorm. Chinook, thanks for adding your input last night. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Hello everyone! Longtime member here. Just a winter weather lover and read to learn so I don't post very often. I know most everyone in this forum are from The Carolinas, Tennessee, and few from Alabama and Georgia which, of course, is covered extensively. Mississippi is usually not involved in too many exciting weather events (except for the April 28, 2014 tornado which devasted out little town - hope we never experience that again!!!) I am in East Central Mississippi and would appreciate it if y'all would include our area in your discussion if this continues to look like we may get in on a little accumulation. Enjoy learning from you guys! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow Wisher said: Hello everyone! Longtime member here. Just a winter weather lover and read to learn so I don't post very often. I know most everyone in this forum are from The Carolinas, Tennessee, and few from Alabama and Georgia which, of course, is covered extensively. Mississippi is usually not involved in too many exciting weather events (except for the April 28, 2014 tornado which devasted out little town - hope we never experience that again!!!) I am in East Central Mississippi and would appreciate it if y'all would include our area in your discussion if this continues to look like we may get in on a little accumulation. Enjoy learning from you guys! Thanks! Great to see the members from the southern range of our forum participating. I am sure folks will try to mention this ares since you mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12z GFS is not budging from the southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, Snow Wisher said: Hello everyone! Longtime member here. Just a winter weather lover and read to learn so I don't post very often. I know most everyone in this forum are from The Carolinas, Tennessee, and few from Alabama and Georgia which, of course, is covered extensively. Mississippi is usually not involved in too many exciting weather events (except for the April 28, 2014 tornado which devasted out little town - hope we never experience that again!!!) I am in East Central Mississippi and would appreciate it if y'all would include our area in your discussion if this continues to look like we may get in on a little accumulation. Enjoy learning from you guys! Thanks! As of now you look to be in a good spot on most model runs. Canadian was big for you guys and you're far enough south to be in a good spot on the GFS with it's sudden change to a waaaay south system. Though you might even be close to the northern edge if the GFS were to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: As of now you look to be in a good spot on most model runs. Canadian was big for you guys and you're far enough south to be in a good spot on the GFS with it's sudden change to a waaaay south system. Though you might even be close to the northern edge if the GFS were to be true. Yep! As many have said though kinda scares me to be in a good spot at this point in time! Watching and waiting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS takes the low in the central gulf again. Almost mirrors the 6z run. Looks to be another I-20 special and nothing for Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Would love this - sitting just a tiny bit West of that "5" in East Central Mississippi!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Runman292 said: 12z Canadian shows a decent amount of snow to East Tennessee and great amounts in Central Mississippi. I'd be happy with a few inches to start things out. That's the 00z run from last night. 12z map isn't out on tropical yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Snow Wisher said: Would love this - sitting just a tiny bit West of that "5" in East Central Mississippi!!! Welcome to the board,that would be too cool for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: That's the 00z run from last night. 12z map isn't out on tropical yet. I didn't notice. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS Snow Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I hope models trend northward in the days to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The nam is bringing the snow more north then the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Little bit of time between meetings, here is the GEM snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Keep in mind that unless this swings way north, the snow totals you see predicted are 10-1 and I think most of Tennessee will be closer to 15-1. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Ratio adjusted GEM map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdwhynot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Greetings to you all... I'm new over here, but was active on Talkweather before it's unfortunate demise. Hopefully here in Central Alabama we will see a little white stuff this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Per the SE board the UKIE is the strongest/most north solution of the current 12z runs but maps for it are tough to come by early so I've not seen them myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Ratio adjusted GEM map. Gdps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Everything trending north but the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Reb said: Everything trending north but the GFS Think the gfs is behind a few runs think it's back when the euro was trending south and will take some tI'm to come back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Mrwolf1972 said: Gdps That map looks better for all of us, You east Tennessee folks look real nice on that run as well. Hopefully we can get more of that to show on the western half off the state as well. Those models to alarm me a little bit though just on the southern fringe off the storm though. It goes from nearly nothing to 4+ inches very quickly down near Jackson Miss, Might be something to keep an eye on as we move closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Everything trending north but the GFS You going to start a thread on VQ if this holds?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 The UKIE from the SE forum, almost within 72 hours and better maps for free. Low in a much better spot at this point vs the GFS, not sure the path it takes to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow Wisher said: Hello everyone! Longtime member here. Just a winter weather lover and read to learn so I don't post very often. I know most everyone in this forum are from The Carolinas, Tennessee, and few from Alabama and Georgia which, of course, is covered extensively. Mississippi is usually not involved in too many exciting weather events (except for the April 28, 2014 tornado which devasted out little town - hope we never experience that again!!!) I am in East Central Mississippi and would appreciate it if y'all would include our area in your discussion if this continues to look like we may get in on a little accumulation. Enjoy learning from you guys! Thanks! Actually, you certainly are not alone there are a lot of people like us. Coming to you from Southwest Virginia! Technically still in the Tennessee Valley. I find this region a lot more relatable than the southeast sub-forum region. Just created an account though I have been through the forums for a while as a guest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: That map looks better for all of us, You east Tennessee folks look real nice on that run as well. Hopefully we can get more of that to show on the western half off the state as well. Those models to alarm me a little bit though just on the southern fringe off the storm though. It goes from nearly nothing to 4+ inches very quickly down near Jackson Miss, Might be something to keep an eye on as we move closer. Just have to see where it goes, I've seen the GFS pull this before, sending everything waaaaay south, only to have it spend the last 48 hours before a storm adjusting majorly. There are tiny players all over the place that cause track changes. The Canadian interacts with a LP over the Great Lakes and gets pulled more north, that may be what causes the UKIE to go more north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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