1/5/17-1/8/17 Southern System.

[Chinook]

Yep, I just checked the 00z Euro, and it does have 1-3" for eastern Tennessee, and the huge blizzard for NC you are seeing on the -clown- map posted above is really in the Euro output. As usual, 5+ day predictions of snow are pretty difficult. As you weather fans know, many times in past years, sleet/freezing rain affect AL/GA/SC/NC/VA when there was -supposed- to be a snowstorm.

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Yep, I just checked the 00z Euro, and it does have 1-3" for eastern Tennessee, and the huge blizzard for NC you are seeing on the -clown- map posted above is really in the Euro output. As usual, 5+ day predictions of snow are pretty difficult. As you weather fans know, many times in past years, sleet/freezing rain affect AL/GA/SC/NC/VA when there was -supposed- to be a snowstorm.

Still think it's going to be Wednesday or so before the picture is clear and maybe not even then. I always worry about NW jogs for our part of the world, so seeing solutions start to move that way some this evening doesn't shock me.

[1234snow]

Sorry guys I was going to try to do a play by play of the Euro but fell asleep. The upper levels don't look that bad on the Euro. Really close to something bigger for us.

[Chinook]

Yes, of course, anywhere south of the Ohio River should be very, very careful in terms of forecasting snow, because it doesn't happen often. And it might not happen like the Euro or GFS have said.  Last night's 00z Euro had 1" of snow for Knoxville and Raleigh. And not a huge storm for North Carolina.

[jaxjagman]

Maybe a couple inches for TYS,better than noting anyways we should see snow,hopefully it gets better

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z JAN02 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) MON 12Z 02-JAN 9.3 9.8 136 9242 11003 0.00 MON 18Z 02-JAN 16.5 10.9 137 9532 16001 0.01 TUE 00Z 03-JAN 13.6 11.3 137 9596 13003 0.00 TUE 06Z 03-JAN 11.9 10.8 137 9643 11004 0.22 TUE 12Z 03-JAN 12.4 10.4 137 9534 21004 0.37 TUE 18Z 03-JAN 15.3 9.0 137 10552 23008 0.05 WED 00Z 04-JAN 13.3 7.4 136 9071 25009 0.03 WED 06Z 04-JAN 11.3 6.0 135 8449 29007 0.06 WED 12Z 04-JAN 7.3 1.4 132 4551 31006 0.11 WED 18Z 04-JAN 5.8 -2.4 131 1833 33006 0.02 THU 00Z 05-JAN 2.7 -3.1 131 1665 36004 0.00 THU 06Z 05-JAN -1.3 -2.3 129 21 03004 0.00 THU 12Z 05-JAN -1.8 -0.4 129 1129 02004 0.00 THU 18Z 05-JAN 5.5 -0.8 131 2065 31002 0.00 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 1.9 -3.2 130 751 01004 0.01 FRI 06Z 06-JAN -0.6 -5.3 129 8 31001 0.06 FRI 12Z 06-JAN -2.3 -8.7 127 0 35005 0.04 FRI 18Z 06-JAN -1.9 -11.2 127 0 34005 0.03 SAT 00Z 07-JAN -4.1 -11.9 126 0 02006 0.03 SAT 06Z 07-JAN -6.9 -9.9 126 0 02005 0.00 SAT 12Z 07-JAN -9.2 -10.0 125 0 02004 0.00 SAT 18Z 07-JAN -1.8 -9.8 126 0 36004 0.00 SUN 00Z 08-JAN -4.6 -11.2 127 0 36003 0.00 SUN 06Z 08-JAN -7.4 -11.9 126 0 22003 0.00 SUN 12Z 08-JAN -8.4 -12.9 125 0 34004 0.00 SUN 18Z 08-JAN -3.8 -12.1 125 0 36006 0.00 MON 00Z 09-JAN -6.6 -8.5 126 0 04004 0.00 MON 06Z 09-JAN -7.6 -4.4 128 0 07004 0.00 MON 12Z 09-JAN -5.4 -3.2 128 0 14002 0.00

[Daniel Boone]

In some aspects this is similar to the February 1972 storm, especially the para Gfs depiction. Recorded 8" here from that one. Remember it started during the day with temps in the 20's. 

   This also has potential to be similar to Jan. 2000 as some things are comparable at this juncture. Hopefully, the '72 scenario is what plays out.

[jaxjagman]

About a half inch to Nashville..blah

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN03 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) TUE 00Z 03-JAN 15.4 10.4 137 05003 TUE 06Z 03-JAN 14.0 9.8 137 9861 17005 0.67 TUE 12Z 03-JAN 13.1 9.5 136 10184 27005 0.10 TUE 18Z 03-JAN 15.6 8.6 136 9943 25009 0.00 WED 00Z 04-JAN 12.2 5.2 135 9430 29008 0.04 WED 06Z 04-JAN 6.0 1.2 131 7046 32010 0.01 WED 12Z 04-JAN 0.5 -1.7 129 283 33010 0.01 WED 18Z 04-JAN 2.1 -2.9 129 296 33006 0.00 THU 00Z 05-JAN -0.3 -3.0 129 269 00005 0.00 THU 06Z 05-JAN -2.8 -2.6 128 0 03004 0.00 THU 12Z 05-JAN -2.0 -1.8 129 0 04004 0.00 THU 18Z 05-JAN 0.3 -4.4 129 93 01003 0.00 FRI 00Z 06-JAN -1.2 -7.7 127 0 36005 0.02 FRI 06Z 06-JAN -2.5 -9.2 127 0 35007 0.01 FRI 12Z 06-JAN -4.9 -10.5 126 0 36007 0.00 FRI 18Z 06-JAN -3.3 -11.3 126 0 36006 0.01 SAT 00Z 07-JAN -4.2 -11.8 125 0 00006 0.02 SAT 06Z 07-JAN -5.7 -10.2 125 0 01009 0.00 SAT 12Z 07-JAN -7.6 -9.4 125 0 00007 0.00 SAT 18Z 07-JAN -1.5 -8.3 126 0 35006 0.00 SUN 00Z 08-JAN -3.7 -8.0 127 0 33005 0.00 SUN 06Z 08-JAN -6.0 -9.4 126 0 34004 0.00 SUN 12Z 08-JAN -6.8 -8.2 126 0 36004 0.00 SUN 18Z 08-JAN 1.2 -7.0 127 71 00003 0.00 MON 00Z 09-JAN -3.2 -5.3 128 322 04003 0.00 MON 06Z 09-JAN -5.2 -2.9 129 0 15005 0.00 MON 12Z 09-JAN -4.0 -1.7 130 2574 18007 0.00 MON 18Z 09-JAN 5.6 -1.2 130 1495 20011 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-JAN 2.6 -0.4 131 3871 19007 0.00

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

In some aspects this is similar to the February 1972 storm, especially the para Gfs depiction. Recorded 8" here from that one. Remember it started during the day with temps in the 20's. 

   This also has potential to be similar to Jan. 2000 as some things are comparable at this juncture. Hopefully, the '72 scenario is what plays out.

Anything could happen if you ask me.The models failed bad with this shortwave

[Snowless in Carrollton]

42 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Yep, I just checked the 00z Euro, and it does have 1-3" for eastern Tennessee, and the huge blizzard for NC you are seeing on the -clown- map posted above is really in the Euro output. As usual, 5+ day predictions of snow are pretty difficult. As you weather fans know, many times in past years, sleet/freezing rain affect AL/GA/SC/NC/VA when there was -supposed- to be a snowstorm.

Yeah but this isnt 5+ days. This is 4 days away.

[Daniel Boone]

Yeah, agree with u on that Jax. Models have been really struggling for awhile. 

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Yeah but this isnt 5+ days. This is 4 days away.

Much as i agree with you,his point is rather vailid.Look at this shortwave that was suppose to dump heavy rain into western Tn,it will never happen

[jaxjagman]

I'm not saying it will snow harder.maybe clueless as ever would be a good answer?..lol

[Mrwolf1972]

Can't understand how the GFS shows no snow  but the gefs is still showing valley snow.

[weathertree4u]

6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Can't understand how the GFS shows no snow  but the gefs is still showing valley snow.

Of interesting note, I think, the CMC moved North from its last run, not sure about the accuracy of the model but I am still highly suspect of the solution the GFS is spitting out

[ShawnEastTN]

20 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Of interesting note, I think, the CMC moved North from its last run, not sure about the accuracy of the model but I am still highly suspect of the solution the GFS is spitting out

I'm suspect of all of the modeling in general until onshore sampling.  We are still about 24 hours or so away from that.  

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I'm suspect of all of the modeling in general until onshore sampling.  We are still about 24 hours or so away from that.  

So am I!

[ShawnEastTN]

Of note of course it is NAM at 84 hours, but NAM at 84 vs GFS at the same time frame from the 6Z runs this morning show a good bit of difference in low placement, with NAM being further north at 84 hours than the GFS.  Quite a large difference with GFS having low placement south central NM, and NAM on the NM/CO border. The NAM is also a few ticks stronger with the low than the GFS. That is enough of a difference in low placement and strength to effect track. 

 

 

[weathertree4u]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Of note of course it is NAM at 84 hours, but NAM at 84 vs GFS at the same time frame from the 6Z runs this morning show a good bit of difference in low placement, with NAM being further north at 84 hours than the GFS.  Quite a large difference with GFS having low placement south central NM, and NAM on the NM/CO border.  That is enough of a difference in low placement in that hour to effect track. 

 

 

Which of the two would you trust more at this juncture? The NAM or GFS? Or are both equally guessing with no sampling yet?

[ShawnEastTN]

1 minute ago, weathertree4u said:

Which of the two would you trust more at this juncture? The NAM or GFS? Or are both equally guessing with no sampling yet?

Its difficult because I do tend to trust the NAM more so than the GFS once we get into its modeling window however like you mention still waiting on sampling I'm not quite going to buy anything yet.  However the NAM showing differences is another reason not to buy into any one solution yet.

[claycochaser]

40 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Of note of course it is NAM at 84 hours, but NAM at 84 vs GFS at the same time frame from the 6Z runs this morning show a good bit of difference in low placement, with NAM being further north at 84 hours than the GFS.  Quite a large difference with GFS having low placement south central NM, and NAM on the NM/CO border. The NAM is also a few ticks stronger with the low than the GFS. That is enough of a difference in low placement and strength to effect track. 

 

 

There's no HP over top on the NAM run to keep the SW digging. Looks like it doesn't have as strong a Vortex over Hudson Bay which allows the pattern to be more progressive.

[weathertree4u]

36 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Its difficult because I do tend to trust the NAM more so than the GFS once we get into its modeling window however like you mention still waiting on sampling I'm not quite going to buy anything yet.  However the NAM showing differences is another reason not to buy into any one solution yet.

True, well, one thing that appears to be locked in is the cold!

[Reb]

I would be willing to bet this thing trends north as we get closer to the storm

[claycochaser]

26 minutes ago, Reb said:

I would be willing to bet this thing trends north as we get closer to the storm

What gives you that impression? 

[whamby]

8 minutes ago, claycochaser said:

What gives you that impression? 

climo is enough to give that thought some credence... 

[claycochaser]

25 minutes ago, whamby said:

climo is enough to give that thought some credence... 

OK. Just thought I'd ask. I'd have thought that having a strong Artic High pressure over most of the Eastern Conus and a suppressed SW rounding the base of an entrenched long wave trough in the Northern branch would lend itself towards a southerly, sheared look...and climotologically...with that synoptic setup...suppressed would be the favored solution.

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, Reb said:

I would be willing to bet this thing trends north as we get closer to the storm

Yeah, I agree with you on that.

[rbowman]

climo is enough to give that thought some credence... 

I think we will either need a weaker high to the northwest or a resurgence of our friend the southeastern ridge to get a major move back north. It appears the arctic air mass is really moving the ser out, so the best bet would be a weaker high.

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[PowellVolz]

I think we will either need a weaker high to the northwest or a resurgence of our friend the southeastern ridge to get a major move back north. It appears the arctic air mass is really moving the ser out, so the best bet would be a weaker high.

Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk

Wouldn't a stronger system pull it a little more north?


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[Mrwolf1972]

12z NAM is bringing the snow more north at 84 

[ShawnEastTN]

9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Wouldn't a stronger system pull it a little more north?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Stronger is better also.  Only to a degree, 12Z NAM is showing some hints at that and better placement of features that could be indicative of northward movement in time.