Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Anyone going to post the CMC? LOL. It has come back from the dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Anyone going to post the CMC? LOL:blink:. It has come back from the dead.I love how it pulls us in So CMC trended north and GFS south lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I love how it pulls us in So CMC trended north and GFS south lol! Heh,that would be total chaos for those SE states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 CMC precip panels hour by hour.90: 96:102: The CMC/GGEM/ or whatever you want to call it actually has light snow falling from Thursday to Saturday continuously over East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 just saying,they cant deal with a 1-2 than that..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Now, who wants to share the UKMET? . See any differences? Edit...look at the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Thoughts? This is the third storm to head into the NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 no confidence on any model,GFS went towards the Euro though tonight ssued Tue 01:45Z Jan 03 2017 day cyc/mdl blend confidence comments D3 y12/ece 035% Below Average y18/gfs 010% Below Average y12/gfp 010% Below Average y18/gem 010% Below Average y12/naf 035% Below Average D4 y12/ece 035% Below Average y18/gfs 010% Below Average y12/gfp 010% Below Average y18/gem 010% Below Average y12/naf 035% Below Average D5 y12/ece 035% Average y18/gem 030% Average y12/naf 035% Average D6 y12/ece 035% Average y18/gem 030% Average y12/naf 035% Average D7 y12/ece 035% Average y18/gem 030% Average y12/naf 035% Averag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 John, you see the UKMET...now that is an interesting turn of events. What you got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Ratio'd Canadian. With the temps we'd have you'd be looking at 20:1 probably. Would be s stunning event down in Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Thoughts? This is the third storm to head into the NE...Carvers, it looks like the UKMET is trying to phase the energy with the northern stream and create a Miller A that runs up the coast. These images is all I can snag. I could only find 5h vort and precip images out to hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: John, you see the UKMET...now that is an interesting turn of events. What you got? Stronger that run and much further West. GFS may be the southern edge of guidance after tonights runs. Seems fitting with how chaotic this one has been so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Stronger that run and much further West. GFS may be the southern edge of guidance after tonights runs. Seems fitting with how chaotic this one has been so far. You see the 18z GFS para? LOL. You cannot make this stuff up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, 1234snow said: Carvers, it looks like the UKMET is trying to phase the energy with the northern stream and create a Miller A that runs up the coast. These images is all I can snag. I could only find 5h vort and precip images out to hour 72. It appears to phase it in the SE. Euro had a similar feature but missed at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The 18z para GFS is a miller A. Looks oddly like the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z para GFS is a miller A. Looks oddly like the UKMET. Has the GFS Para consistently shown a major winter storm for us? It seems like it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z para GFS is a miller A. Looks oddly like the UKMET. The lack of maps from the UKIE make it tough for details after 72 hours, but the Para has a slightly weaker storm off Hattaras like the UKIE. The UKIE bombs over the Gulf Stream and sends it almost due north and the para sent it on out to sea. The 12z UKIE was about 100 miles south of where we'd want it at 12z. Can't see the inbetween to see where it crosses Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Runman292 said: Has the GFS Para consistently shown a major winter storm for us? It seems like it has. Good question. It has rarely wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Runman292 said: Has the GFS Para consistently shown a major winter storm for us? It seems like it has. If the Para nails this it would be awesome,sure those guys in the Cha would love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 This is one of those extremes that I'm willing to wager won't quite come to pass. But as with anything else in nature, it technically could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: This is one of those extremes that I'm willing to wager won't quite come to pass. But as with anything else in nature, it technically could. Only problem with the 18z is not all guidance is put into it,you just see what it is,just guidance by what could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Dont mean to be scrooge,but the 0z GFS trended towards a more weaker sheared out system,dont really believe you'll see much difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 And the Euro has this now...I'll take that look all day, every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: And the Euro has this now...I'll take that look all day, every day. Thats still a sheared out look,look to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 hours ago, tnweathernut said: 0z NAM taking pretty big steps toward the EURO tonight by 48 hours. Guessing we see the GFS also make some fairly large steps toward a weaker solution here in an hour or so. TNWeathernut: what is your avatar? A great day of -NAO, a great day of -AO, and/or a 500mb analysis of a great storm for the TN valley? Today, we have nearly connected ridges in Greenland and the Yukon, similar to your avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Thats still a sheared out look,look to the north It ended up stronger and much further N/W with it's precip shield. I'll take a strengthening low in the Northern Gulf and take my chances with it. GFS dropped way south, UKIE, GGEM and EURO all came North/West. Ratio adjusted you're probably looking at 3-6 inches from NE Alabama, up the Plateau and points east. That's a massive improvement from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 better for you guys to the east ,should be anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Clown from the SE Forum, rapidly increasing gradient to the East. Ratios would be higher than 10:1 with the frigid profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro at 15:1 from another forum. If needed, erase it or I'll edit it out when I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Hopefully will trend North. Or Memphis & Nashville get left out again. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.