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1/5/17-1/8/17 Southern System.


John1122

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Snowing heavily here again this morning, as the final enhanced area squeezes out more snow.  From my eye looks like I could have around 6" here, but I'll take measurements shortly.   

Dang, I wish the goofy sun would hurry up.  I'd like to enjoy the last gasp with some daylight!

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Just took the measurements.  Average comes to around 5 inches here.  It's truly a winter wonderland, and the pine trees are covered as well.  I guess the snow was wet enough at one point to stick to them. 

It's still snowing, but radar says we're about done here. 

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There is a huge fluff factor to this dry snow.  When you step on it, you can hear the air get pushed out as the ice crystals compact.  The unique sound of walking on dry, fluffy snow. 

Still enjoying it here, as it's coming down at a good clip.  It's actually gotten heavier in the last 10 minutes.  I'm just glad I got to see a little bit falling with daylight this morning. 

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The main precip field has moved on, but moisture lingers in the foothills.  Light snow still falling.  I've seen this happen with almost every major snow storm in the past.  Keeps flurries flying for a while longer.  I guess it has something to do with the remaining moisture banking up against the highest peaks of the Smokies directly to my south.

Click for latest Base Reflectivity radar image from the Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN radar and current weather warnings

 

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Looks like we tracked an event from about 11-12 days out.  4-7 inches fell across Washington county, TN (more south, less north)

As soon as the blocks went up in Alaska and Greenland, (although it never went to the strength modeled around Greenland) it was like a fuse had been lit and all that was left was to wait and see who (in the south) would score.  There were winners and losers, but all in all those blocks did their work.......  

Not sure which model did the best, but the Euro was fairly consistent in picking out the possibility 10-12 days out, although it lost the event at times in the 6-10.  The UKMET was excellent once into range and the German model performed well too.  The GFS was sporadic initially but then locked on and was consistent with what it showed (just too far south up until game time).  Short range modeling did well in showing the precip field, but missed on accumulations in the Johnson city area (Kuchera was about double what actually fell in some places)

Never underestimate the northwest trend. This storm was being sent to central FL fairly regularly by various models, even 3-4 days out. Charlotte and Raleigh, NC ended up with a lot of precip that fell as something other than snow after having model run after model run bomb them with snow.

Atlanta also was a pretty big bust, though areas north of town did well. Areas further west in MS and AL had spots that did really well in getting accumulating snow when models were pretty anemic there initially. Memphis and other areas of middle TN got a surprise with energy associated with the jet streak ahead of he main low, closing schools and creating problems on the roads (all the way into the Knoxville area).

Chattanooga was placed into a winter storm warning (late in the game after the event was under way) but I don't think that verified (hearing about an inch or less for that area in general).  

Feel free to add thoughts to this thread for other areas to sort of wrap and put a bow on this storm.   Hoping we can do it again before the winter is over.... congrats to those who got snow and to the ones that didn't, hope you can reel one in before the winter is over!!

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Congrats to all who scored, as modeled my area of nw ms after initially appearing to be in the right spot ended up with nothing. We had 30 mins of sleet, very few flakes of snow, I watched the radar as the initial wave went 2 counties north and got far north ms and Memphis, and then 3-4 counties south benefited from the gulf low.  Oh well, guess there's next time.

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