weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BNAwx said: I've learned over the years that I'd rather be on the northern edge this far out regardless of climo. We still may end up on the "losing" end but I'd bet dollars to donuts that we've yet to see a final solution. I hope so too fellow Middle TN person! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, BNAwx said: I've learned over the years that I'd rather be on the northern edge this far out regardless of climo. We still may end up on the "losing" end but I'd bet dollars to donuts that we've yet to see a final solution. Yeah, who knows. Systems have come north all season and is not uncommon for that during any season actually. But this block means business. Either way...with the way this is shifting around, nothing is set in stone. If forced, I would bet Euro...but again, until this is sampled well things could change and most likely will once it comes ashore. I don't necessarily buy the suppressed solutions but there is little support for anything but that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Also remember that with most systems with gulf interaction GFS especially but also most of the major models under model the precip shield a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, who knows. Systems have come north all season and is not uncommon for that during any season actually. But this block means business. Either way...with the way this is shifting around, nothing is set in stone. If forced, I would bet Euro...but again, until this is sampled well things could change and most likely will once it comes ashore. I don't necessarily buy the suppressed solutions but there is little support for anything but that.... Yeah, it does bother me that the EPS keeps getting stingier for our area so a more southern solution could be right. As you said, blocking looks pretty good so a full blown cutter looks off the table. I would hope by 12z tomorrow we'll have a good idea of what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 I think we've lost one storm south of here in the last 7 years that produced wintry weather down towards I-20. It's rare but it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GEFs little more south but still has good snow return in valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The models have flipped flopped from north of us all,. To right on top of us all, to now south of most of us with the exception of a few people. Either way to be in the running at this point in time is all we can really ask for. I was doing some research though and this storm has the potential to be a repeat of the 1/7/88 storm that covered us all from Memphis to Knoxville and south all THe way to Birmingham. 5-8 inches covered most of that area with upwards of 10+ back into Little Rock and Oklahoma City. I saw that and figured I would share so we can ponder all the possibilities that could play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ratio adjusted 18z would be very pleasing to most of us, even if we didn't get the mega 12 inch totals from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I'd be fine with 3-5" for now. Hopefully everything slides back north a little. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, John1122 said: Ratio adjusted 18z would be very pleasing to most of us, even if we didn't get the mega 12 inch totals from earlier runs. Agreed, looks promising. That's a wide swath of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The NAM is already useless,look at the mesoscale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 0z NAM taking pretty big steps toward the EURO tonight by 48 hours. Guessing we see the GFS also make some fairly large steps toward a weaker solution here in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 0z NAM taking pretty big steps toward the EURO tonight by 48 hours. Guessing we see the GFS also make some fairly large steps toward a weaker solution here in an hour or so.It sure did and it was a noticeable shift in that direction. Some people will say to not look at the NAM but the timeframe where possible separation happens and the shortwave travels through the west is within the 2-3 day timeframe. The NAM doesn't perform terribly in that range. What happens from hours 24-60 will make or break the storm for us. Will the shortwave interact with the northern stream energy and get squashed and strung out? Examples: Euro, GGEM, UKMET, and now NAM. Or will the shortwave remain separate and intact? Example: GFS for now. I really hate to say it but the GFS is on an island on its own. As much as I want those last 3-4 runs of the GFS to be correct they are outliers unless global guidance shifts that way. I don't think the GFS will completely cave tonight but I think it will be a slow shift.Here's the 18z GFS and 0z NAM compared and there are major differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I think this case is different than some others. Normally we see a northwest trend in modeling as events get closer in time. That seems to be the case when we have a well defined shortwave trough and a nice surface low. It will be hard to see any northwest shift if we lose a resemblance of a separate shortwave out west. I'm afraid that if we lose the storm now we won't be getting it back. Normally over the past few years the Euro has been the more amped model and the GFS more suppressed. They are behaving oppositely and that is a red flag to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Hour 96. GFS has light precip over Oklahoma with a weak surface low reflection close to Mexico/Texas border in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Hour 102 light snows over the Arklatex region and a very weak low south of LA. This runs looks a little weaker so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Hour 108 pretty far south compared to previous runs we are losing the system. Very little if any snow over Tennessee while the Gulf Coast gets a snow/ice mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: Hour 102 light snows over the Arklatex region and a very weak low south of LA. This runs looks a little weaker so far. 108 lol is lower in gulf then last run think we're gonna loose this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Way south and weak. I-20 south will be okay, we're probably gonna look dry this time. Oh well, see if it does the 90 percent of the time NW trend in a couple days or if it sticks to central Gulf status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 114 and its gone. Light snow over Atlanta and most of SC. Precip shield never makes it into Tennessee much at all. Maybe the Coastal Carolinas can salvage a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 European model made over suppressed and moisture starved was really hoping for snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: 114 and its gone. Light snow over Atlanta and most of SC. Precip shield never makes it into Tennessee much at all. Maybe the Coastal Carolinas can salvage a decent storm. It could stay down there, but you'll be able to knock me over with a feather if there's not a northern recovery to this. It's rare to see winter systems track from Houston to SW Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 European model made over suppressed and moisture starved was really hoping for snow .Some of the snow in TN, VA and KY is from the first little wave that moves in on Thursday. Here's a 24 hour total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 It could stay down there, but you'll be able to knock me over with a feather if there's not a northern recovery to this. It's rare to see winter systems track from Houston to SW Florida. Yeah it could. When I said the coastal areas could salvage a good storm I should of clarified that I was thinking about this run because I hadn't seen the end of it. They actually took a nice little hit around Myrtle Beach. Funny that people go there to escape but winter is going to go to the beach maybe. Actually, not a bad run at all for our southern peeps, but just not the stuff for us. I've not given up hope at all we are still 5 days away and that is plenty of time for the better or worse. We have been in this rodeo before haha. I would much rather have a colder and more suppressed solution than a amped and rainy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Weak and sheared out system,more than likely what we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, 1234snow said: Yeah it could. When I said the coastal areas could salvage a good storm I should of clarified that I was thinking about this run because I hadn't seen the end of it. They actually took a nice little hit around Myrtle Beach. Funny that people go there to escape but winter is going to go to the beach maybe. Actually, not a bad run at all for our southern peeps, but just not the stuff for us. I've not given up hope at all we are still 5 days away and that is plenty of time for the better or worse. We have been in this rodeo before haha. I would much rather have a colder and more suppressed solution than a amped and rainy one. It could be their time but there's a reason it almost never snows way down south. Systems almost never behave this way in the end. I'll throw this in too, that also applies to the extreme GFS runs here too. I'm skeptical of any model run that shows extreme solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Ninas are known for Deep South snows. Charleston, SC had one during one of the great Nina winters 89-90. (That winter the cold ended after December and winter was gone.) So, it is not without precedent that it can snow in those parts. I generally agree that a northern correction should happen given the look...but snow is a realistic possibility there based on climo. http://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: It could be their time but there's a reason it almost never snows way down south. Systems almost never behave this way in the end. Yep. Extremes are the toughest to predict. Even here, when extremes are shown...they rarely verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Should be the outcome with the GFS showing this in this now range the same as the Euro,sheared out system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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