John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 The GGEM is 75 miles NW with it's precip shield from 12z. 12z was basically just to the border. 00z was very similar to the RGEM. Not sure how much more NW this can possibly trend but probably 12z tomorrow are the last of even the hi-res short/med range models that will tell much of the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Reb said: Aldrich said his "confidence is growing"...,I'd say! thats 2-5" in valley btw Well there it is. The funniest thing I've seen all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Well this begs the question of how many people are staying up for the Euro. I would, but have to work tomorrow since it doesn't appear much snow happening overnight...and I have a feeling I may not sleep much tomorrow night. As David Aldrich said, "confidence is growing..." HA! But ya'll have a good night. Hope EURO gives us a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 GEM raises totals over Knox and points east by around 1 inch above the 12z run. So far every model except the GFS has came N/W with the precip shield as well as track. Also snow totals have went up on all but the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm staying up for it but I'll need someone to play-by-play. Who's the play-by-play player? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: The GGEM is 75 miles NW with it's precip shield from 12z. 12z was basically just to the border. 00z was very similar to the RGEM. Not sure how much more NW this can possibly trend but probably 12z tomorrow are the last of even the hi-res short/med range models that will tell much of the story. If this verifies, I will never doubt the "northwest trend" again. Never write off a snowstorm in the south too early in the game. It can always come back. Well, unless it's already northwest of ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Biggest benefit of that GGEM run was Mississippi and Alabama, they had nothing on it at 12z. Now there's a 1-3 inch streak from East Central Miss in a ENE arc across Bama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 MRX updated the WSW about an hour ago: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1037 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... .A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEING PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT RANGING FROM NO MORE THAN A DUSTING IN MOST VALLEY AREAS TO LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. SOME ROADWAYS MAY DEVELOP SLICK SPOTS...SO CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR MOTORISTS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A SECOND MORE POTENT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE EAST TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND POTENTIALLY TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IN THE MOUNTAINS...4 TO 8 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE PEAKS WILL BE COMMON. AND IN THE VALLEY...A POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOULD THE TRACK DEVIATE FURTHER TO THE WEST. WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO QUICKLY ACCUMULATE BY THE EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE ON FRIDAY IS A REAL POSSIBILTY. GIVEN THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES... ROADS AND SURFACES WILL BE PRIMED FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND ANY ROAD SURFACE THAT IS UNTREATED WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, JayCee said: If this verifies, I will never doubt the "northwest trend" again. Never write off a snowstorm in the south too early in the game. It can always come back. Well, unless it's already northwest of ya. In feb 13 or 14 we watched it tick nw for days. That last day it made a big turn and put is in the perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, st116 said: In feb 13 or 14 we watched it tick nw for days. That last day it made a big turn and put is in the perfect spot. was definitely 2014... some kind of miracle slow moving backside mini-comma convective madness pasted our area pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, whamby said: was definitely 2014... some kind of miracle slow moving backside mini-comma convective madness pasted our area pretty good. Once it turned the corner... It was dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 One last tidbit from MRX: Quote One last note, the closest Analog for this event is the January 28, 2014, winter storm that dropped 2-4 inches of snow across the region, and created treacherous road conditions on untreated surfaces to the subfreezing temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Bring forth the 0z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Bring forth the 0z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 37 minutes ago, Vol Man said: MRX updated the WSW about an hour ago: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1037 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... .A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEING PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT RANGING FROM NO MORE THAN A DUSTING IN MOST VALLEY AREAS TO LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. SOME ROADWAYS MAY DEVELOP SLICK SPOTS...SO CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR MOTORISTS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A SECOND MORE POTENT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE EAST TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND POTENTIALLY TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IN THE MOUNTAINS...4 TO 8 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE PEAKS WILL BE COMMON. AND IN THE VALLEY...A POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOULD THE TRACK DEVIATE FURTHER TO THE WEST. WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO QUICKLY ACCUMULATE BY THE EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE ON FRIDAY IS A REAL POSSIBILTY. GIVEN THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES... ROADS AND SURFACES WILL BE PRIMED FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND ANY ROAD SURFACE THAT IS UNTREATED WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT. Picture of the NWS proven wrong at my own house! heh heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1234 has a Euro subscription but I think he's out trying to buy all the bags of salt that are available in his town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro is stronger, less positively tilted and NW of it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Euro is stronger, less positively tilted and NW of it's 12z run. John, do you think that MRX is going to upgrade the watch in the East Tennessee Valley to a warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Runman292 said: John, do you think that MRX is going to upgrade the watch in the East Tennessee Valley to a warning? I think they will for counties that border North Carolina outside the Smokies. Possibly the next tier in as well. I don't think their entire watch area will go to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Multiply your total by around 1.7 on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Thanks John! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Stovepipe said: Thanks John! No problem! Thanks to all the posters and everyone who takes these crazy rides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looking at that map and going by what should be the ratios with temps well down in the 20s, probably 2-2.5 around Memphis. 1 or so around Nash. 1-2 along the Highland Rim and Western Plateau. 2.5-3.5 around the Eastern Plateau, far western side of the East Tn Valley down to just below 40. Ramping up to 4-5 East side of Knox and counties that border there. Up towards 5-7 along the Carolina border counties. Essentially all models now show something close to those ranges with the GFS being the most suppressed and therefore having the least accumulations, but still only an inch or so below those numbers for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here's a funny Hinkin grab from earlier. Classic... You can see the pain in his face as he explains that the main trace to 1 inch will be more SE KY and not TN. The very idea of snow here for him is unimaginable. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 You purposely stayed away from this until yesterday. I almost went to the southern forum trying to find someone to say something of humor and intelligence. To take your place. I've followed your GFS truck rolling since 2010 when Toot was around on TNWX. To recall old times, I say "hello!" as well! Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 03 sref is kinda bonkers. Crossville 4 inch mean Knoxville 7.5 inch mean Tri 8 inch mean Chattanooga 5.9 inch mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 06z NAM had the same general look but backed off by around 1/2 to 1.5 inches across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 03 sref is kinda bonkers. Crossville 4 inch mean Knoxville 7.5 inch mean Tri 8 inch mean Chattanooga 5.9 inch mean Nothing for the rest of the Valley? Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, mempho said: Nothing for the rest of the Valley? Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk 1 inch for Memphis. .8 for Nashville. 3 inches for Huntsville. 2 for Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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