tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, John1122 said: GFS backs off on totals for most of the area, not too bad through. I don't know if it's right, as it's the only model now showing it's track. It's depth of cold air and it's not likely to be able to see the mesoscale features that will guide this one the rest of it's cycle as well as the hi-res models. I agree, the GFS is a little bit of an island though it's precip shield matches other modeling. Will be interesting to see which model wins. For KTRI I'd place little emphasis on the recent NAM and GFS runs and go middle of the road with other modeling in predicting 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: You sure it's not better? I believe it is for Knoxville Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 18z had 4.0 over Knoxville with 5 in far east Knox. Morristown was at 6 on 18z, now at 4.7. Tri was 5.5 now at 3.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: 18z had 4.0 over Knoxville with 5 in far east Knox. Morristown was at 6 on 18z, now at 4.7. Tri was 5.5 now at 3.6. I could be wrong but I thought those 18z numbers had 15:1 ratio applied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Vol4Life said: I could be wrong but I thought those 18z numbers had 15:1 ratio applied. That's running both ratio adjusted at Pivotal. 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: I could be wrong but I thought those 18z numbers had 15:1 ratio applied. I've been struggling with this all day; what's been Kuchera'd and what's 10:1. It's like a hipster version of the old school Cobb, but I'll take it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: That's running both ratio adjusted at Pivotal. 18z 00z You were right as usual John...should've kept my mouth shut! Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS give ATL 8.3?? That makes me doubt everything else about that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I've been struggling with this all day; what's been Kuchera'd and what's 10:1. It's like a hipster version of the old school Cobb, but I'll take it lol.I believe the Kuchera is the adjusted precip ratios Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I've been struggling with this all day; what's been Kuchera'd and what's 10:1. It's like a hipster version of the old school Cobb, but I'll take it lol. Best quote of the thread!!! "what's been Kuchera'd and what's 10:1. It's like a hipster version of the old school Cobb" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That's running both ratio adjusted at Pivotal. 18z 00zYou're right, my badSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: You were right as usual John...should've kept my mouth shut! Lol! Hah, I'm wrong all the time. Always speak up! Hope everyone out there lurking does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS give ATL 8.3?? That makes me doubt everything else about that run. That could be some sleet and freezing rain Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Mark Reynolds with WJHL in Johnson City and Dave Dierks with WCYB in Bristol went with 2" and 1-4" respectively. Not sure what MR is looking at. Even the anemic GFS is closer to 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I've been struggling with this all day; what's been Kuchera'd and what's 10:1. It's like a hipster version of the old school Cobb, but I'll take it lol. Kuchera, as far as I know, is exclusive to pivotalweather. I could be wrong. Anyway, it's a tool to factor in and allow for greater snowfall for colder temps. It adjusts the ratio. However, I don't know if it goes above 15:1 or if it automatically adjusts the ratio based on the temp at the time of snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: You're right, my bad Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk No worries, it actually did go up for my area, but it's honestly not the best model to pay attention to right now. We are in the NAM/RGEM wheelhouse for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, JayCee said: GFS give ATL 8.3?? That makes me doubt everything else about that run. I agree... Anything is possible, but history tells us it's not probable. That's the fun part of the weather though. Never thought I could get 22 inches in 93 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ole Mark Reynolds still really downplaying any amounts to speak of in East Tennessee....just said maybe 2" at the most...heavier amounts staying in NC. Guess he could be right...not sure what he is basing that on, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Jed33 said: Kuchera, as far as I know, is exclusive to pivotalweather. I could be wrong. Anyway, it's a tool to factor in and allow for greater snowfall for colder temps. It adjusts the ratio. However, I don't know if it goes above 15:1 or if it automatically adjusts the ratio based on the temp at the time of snowfall It goes above. The Valley region is basically 18-20:1 for the Plateau. 14-16:1 for Valley areas. 17-19:1 for NETN SW/VA. Lower as you go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, JayCee said: GFS give ATL 8.3?? That makes me doubt everything else about that run. It would be a top 3 event ever there. But it snows in Atlanta when a storm tracks 150-200 miles off the Gulf Coast like the GFS depicted that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I believe 8.3" would be a new single day record at KATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighKnob Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Vol Man said: Ole Mark Reynolds still really downplaying any amounts to speak of in East Tennessee....just said maybe 2" at the most...heavier amounts staying in NC. Guess he could be right...not sure what he is basing that on, though... In house model? i ve noticed dave and mark love the viper, sometimes to a fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Seems like MRX is thinking this could be a good snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well this begs the question of how many people are staying up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Stovepipe said: Well this begs the question of how many people are staying up for the Euro. Well DUH, Stove...EVERY body! Even us professional lurkers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I stay up when it's 360 hours out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 GGEM way north with it's early precip shield. Big impacts for North Bama, Mississippi etc. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, kvskelton said: Well DUH, Stove...EVERY body! Even us professional lurkers... Skelton!!! I hope you've stocked up on cigarettes and beer my friend hehe. Great to see you, please post more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Aldrich said his "confidence is growing"...,I'd say! thats 2-5" in valley btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Aldrich said his "confidence is growing"...,I'd say! thats 2-5" in valley btwI told Pipe what wood happen. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Well this begs the question of how many people are staying up for the Euro. You purposely stayed away from this until yesterday. I almost went to the southern forum trying to find someone to say something of humor and intelligence. To take your place. I've followed your GFS truck rolling since 2010 when Toot was around on TNWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.