John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Guessing totals across the state. 1-3 in the Memphis to Jackson area. .5-1.5 in the Nashville area. 1-3 in the Plateau areas. .5-1.5 in the Southern Valley. 2-4 in the Central Eastern Valley. 4-6 in counties that border North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM and NAM look nearly identical up to hour 12.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 43 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: HRR has 4 inches in Memphis That's a thing of beauty. Hope it pans out this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 You have been missing out. Great shows like 1234 mentioned. Very relaxed atmosphere...just talk weather. But some seriously smart minds doing that show. They have forgotten more than most know. Happens once or twice a year w big east coast storms.Where is this usually at? Internet?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM and NAM look nearly identical up to hour 12.... Really need this to stickSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Carvers, the navy is rolling in with all units! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Canadian is about to NAM usSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEm looks just off the nam but closer then it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM is closer to the NAM but not just like. The RGEM supports about what MRX is forecasting for the area. 1-5" 1" plateau to 5" eastern mountains. That is 10:1, so better with higher ratios which we will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here's hoping the GFS falls in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM added about an inch to everyone in East Tennessee that run. My area went 1 to 2, Knox went 2.5 to 3.5, Morristown went 3.8 to 5. Nooga went .9 to 1.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'll allow it. Just glad it's still on board with a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Honestly at this point I think the GFS is wrong. It's basically the only mod left to show the low off the coast. Pretty much everyone else is ridding the coast. If the GFS comes NW at all I think we are in business Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS by eyeball seems a little jucier at H18 vs previous GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 30 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Carvers, the navy is rolling in with all units! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 If this verifies, and we've went from the GFS showing a huge storm, then most models showing a complete miss, then back to seeing a sizable snow via the NAM--it will be one to remember. Now that RGEM has joined the fray, I'm feeling a sense of Zen. Sigh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Robert/WxSouth just posted on facebok: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1539704946059555&substory_index=0&id=356106867752708 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, zippity said: Robert/WxSouth just posted on facebok: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1539704946059555&substory_index=0&id=356106867752708 I'm confused how he mentions he doesn't trust qpf for Eastern TN then says guaranteed big snows and mentions East TN.... Hmmm... Unless he means he thinks they qpf being advertised it lower than what he thinks could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Robert/WxSouth just posted on facebok: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1539704946059555&substory_index=0&id=356106867752708So I wonder what his definition of "significant" is?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, ShawnEastTN said: I'm confused how he mentions he doesn't trust qpf for Eastern TN then says guaranteed big snows and mentions East TN.... Hmmm... Unless he means he thinks they qpf being advertised it lower than what he thinks could be. When I first read it, I was a little confused as well. However, when I read it a second time, I believe he is saying that the qpf in East TN, NGa, etc is under done on the models and he expects bigger totals in these areas compared to what is being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 WRCB is going with this....I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighKnob Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said: I'm confused how he mentions he doesn't trust qpf for Eastern TN then says guaranteed big snows and mentions East TN.... Hmmm... Unless he means he thinks they qpf being advertised it lower than what he thinks could be. The big guys seem really skeptical for east tn, mark reynolds echoed such sentiments. However, if we get the gfs and euro on board than surely they are keying on something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS is sticking to it's 150 miles off the Gulf Coast look, it's the furthest south model of all. Puts out perhaps the largest precip shield though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS snow totals are trying to match nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS backs off on totals for most of the area, not too bad through. I don't know if it's right, as it's the only model now showing it's track. It's depth of cold air and it's not likely to be able to see the mesoscale features that will guide this one the rest of it's cycle as well as the hi-res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: GFS is sticking to it's 150 miles off the Gulf Coast look, it's the furthest south model of all. Puts out perhaps the largest precip shield though. Hope it will change in am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFSSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS backs off on totals for most of the area, not too bad through. I don't know if it's right, as it's the only model now showing it's track. It's depth of cold air and it's not likely to be able to see the mesoscale features that will guide this one the rest of it's cycle as well as the hi-res models.You sure it's not better? I believe it is for Knoxville Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: GFS backs off on totals for most of the area, not too bad through. I don't know if it's right, as it's the only model now showing it's track. It's depth of cold air and it's not likely to be able to see the mesoscale features that will guide this one the rest of it's cycle as well as the hi-res models. Interesting to see but we are in hi-res territory now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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