PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 How do you post a gifSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Reb said: Wolf that map is hour 33...it's still snowing heavily at 36.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: I see a lot of other guys and gals talking about the track of the NAM being wrong, but isn't this track the most common for our area? When the track was way in the south it was a once in every 50 year storm... I sorta new, but I feel like this is a more realistic track... ( probably wrong) We will weigh it against the others as they come in. It's just always entertaining what happens even 24 hours before go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: Well two NAMs in a row hitting CHA...now we have a trend... C'mon, surely you saw this coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM isn't even that good of a model. Don't know why it's so heavily relied on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well this only solidifies the strategy of looking at the SREF to get an idea of what the NAM will do. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I would love for this to verify however how many times have we been in situations where the only real model to hang our hats on was the NAM? A handful of those the NAM scored a coup, it seems and I do not have data to back this up just anecdotal that the NAM has let us down more than won the day when it was out sort of on its own. Tempered optimism is my stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 HRR has 4 inches in Memphis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, st116 said: C'mon, surely you saw this coming? If you saw 5" of snow coming you chose the wrong profession originally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Now I really can't wait to see GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm still skeptical of the NAM. I don't have any scientific reasoning or reasoning based on any of the processes going on. I've just been burned by the model too many times before. But I can see this scenario happening. The precip shield looks like it normally should with a classic Miller A even if it is probably overdone a little bit. Interested to see the 4k and 3k NAM. Good catch on the HRRR Memphis snow Mrwolf. That will definitely catch some people off guard in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Cut the NAM totals in half and I'd still be ecstatic. My kids would lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I have a question . Is the GFS and Euro still reliable when we're this close to the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 For what it's worth Brad Travis at WAFF out of Huntsville said the NAM takes this storm on a historical track for storms in the south... said a lot of good snow has came from storms with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Stovepipe said: Cut the NAM totals in half and I'd still be ecstatic. My kids would lose it. The funny thing is if you cut the NAM totals in half you end up about right where MRX places their totals. Pretty close anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Personally I want to turn off all my tvs, phones, tablets, etc and just go to bed and wait and see.... NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 The NAM 3k is going to be vulgar. I'll be stunned if it's totals verify at 30 percent of the clown it's going to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, st116 said: Personally I want to turn off all my tvs, phones, tablets, etc and just go to bed and wait and see.... NAM.... i always loved it as a kid just living life going to bed and waking up in the morning with that insulated sound to the house and looking out the window to a new snowfall. Nothing beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM 3k is going to be vulgar. I'll be stunned if it's totals verify at 30 percent of the clown it's going to show. Maybe we should start expecting it all to verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, st116 said: Maybe we should start expecting it all to verify... Surprisingly it actually ended up backing off from 18z. I thought it was going to go even crazier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The NAM 3k is going to be vulgar. I'll be stunned if it's totals verify at 30 percent of the clown it's going to show. The 3k was still amped but the higher totals were just a little east of the operational NAM. I'd like to see the Kuchera of that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattywarmnose Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The nam is gonna wreck our worlds bro... liking the chances north/northeast of Knox...I'd say south/sw of Athens gets blanked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It's too bad they didn't arrange one of those AmWx call in shows for this event. Those are always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: The 3k was still amped but the higher totals were just a little east of the operational NAM. I'd like to see the Kuchera of that run. Pretty much same track tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It's too bad they didn't arrange one of those AmWx call in shows for this event. Those are always fun. Wait.... there's a weather call in show?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wait.... there's a weather call in show?Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkYeah for the really big events of the past few years they will get some mets from the Mid Atlantic and Northeast forums and sometimes the Southeast forums and people will call in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Welp its over.... Joe Bastardi Tweeted "Been counting on shift west ,so I have no problem with the NAM. has scored coups before. Blend of Dec 82/Feb 67 looks pretty good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yeah for the really big events of the past few years they will get some mets from the Mid Atlantic and Northeast forums and sometimes the Southeast forums and people will call in. Oh geezSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Wait.... there's a weather call in show? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You have been missing out. Great shows like 1234 mentioned. Very relaxed atmosphere...just talk weather. But some seriously smart minds doing that show. They have forgotten more than most know. Happens once or twice a year w big east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said: Welp its over.... Joe Bastardi Tweeted "Been counting on shift west ,so I have no problem with the NAM. has scored coups before. Blend of Dec 82/Feb 67 looks pretty good" The Nail in the coffin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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