Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 There is a reason the Euro is called Dr No, The King, etc.. Those that go against it do so at there own peril. Now, the Euro can struggle w at times, but it has scored well lately. The GEFS was slightly south at 12z w its snow axis. Could it be moving towards the more suppressed solution of the non-American models? Maybe. The 12z Euro and UKMET barely budged compared to 0z. The CMC moved to the Euro. Still plenty of options on the table, but the GFS vs UKMET/CMC/Euro gives me great pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 All of that said, the juicer solution of the GFS makes more sense to me. But make no mistake, I think it unwise to go out on a limb given it has little support outside of its own ensemble. Will be interesting to see if the EPS throws us a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 didn't the gfs suppress the storm then loose it for 2 days before it found it like it has now im wondering if the rest just haven't caught on to it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Yes you are right MrWolf, It did lose the storm Saturday and partially Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It's hard for me to believe the Euro could be wrong at hours 48-54 with regards to capturing the energy (EURO) vs leaving it behind (GFS).... great test for the two major globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: It's hard for me to believe the Euro could be wrong at hours 48-54 with regards to capturing the energy (EURO) vs leaving it behind (GFS).... great test for the two major globals. WPC prefers the middle ground between the Euro/GFS. Mentioned that the EPS doesn't support the fast kick out that the OP Euro shows. Probably won't see the final verdict for 24 more hours if not a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: didn't the gfs suppress the storm then loose it for 2 days before it found it like it has now im wondering if the rest just haven't caught on to it yet. It would be a big coup for the Ameican model. Not unprecedented.... Normally, I trust the Euro with EC storms that run northeastward. I know it's tendencies. That said, it can struggle w extremely cold air. Maybe it it is having trouble w the placement of Arctic boundary. The storm will run that boundary. But it didn't budge at 12z. It also has the UKMET in its camp that did not budge at 12z. It now has the CMC. I can count on one hand with a few fingers to spare....when the GFS has scored the coup on a big system. If you are looking for a chink in its armor, the Euro busted big time over NC with that storm over NC where 2-3' were predicted. I am holding out judgement for this until the system in the West comes ashore. As mentioned earlier, I think there will be a big shift then. It will finally get sampled well. The CMC leaving the snow camp, does get my attention...but I think we are not at a solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 I think one will fold towards the other soon. Not sure which way it will go, but I'd lean towards the UK Met middle of the road solution. Just on the fact that snow storms of the magnitude the GFS runs are exceedingly rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'd like the Euro to be juicer but it's still early. The GFS is crushing versus the Euro very light to negligible for same locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 As usual, MRX is staying conservative and leaning towards the Euro over the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ther just isn't a lot of support for something more robust. I hope I have to eat my words, but the only guidance showing a major widespread snow is the GFS. The euro and its ensembles are moving away from something major and the Canadian and UK IS also in a different (less snowy) world from the GFS. Let's just try to get on the board before we go back to a pattern hostile for snow chances and hope we make it back into a better pattern the last 10 days of January. Like I said, I hope I am wrong and the GFS scores the victory..... I just don't have any confidence of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I just don't see how they can be so far off on the same storm its mid boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Maybe what ever caused the GFS to lose the storm on Saturday is the same thing that's happening to the euro model today. Let's hope it just needs another day to target what the GFS is already showing. Fingers crossed at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 any idea when the system is supposed to come on shore for better sampling ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 gfs para isn't bugging on its track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: any idea when the system is supposed to come on shore for better sampling ? Roughly 36 hours or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Pretty happy with the Para, it's be excellent at 500mb, as good or better than the Euro. I feel like a caving or a meeting in the middle will happen by 12z Wednesday at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18z keeps the piece of energy separated, though early on there was a bit more interaction. Hope that doesn't keep trending. As is, looks a little faster through 84. Should be another good run just looking at 500, but let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The vort is a little weaker at 102, but still looks good as the height field begins to respond in front of it. Precip should blossom ahead of it yet again, but is it a trend toward a weaker solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 at 108 its fired up headed towards us again but further south this run then last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: at 108 its fired up headed towards us again but further south this run then last Here I thought we were seeing a solution now not so sure or is it the solution that the Euro has been advertising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Definite trend toward the euro here. Well defined 850 low cruising east to west across the lower TN Valley is now weaker and more broadly defined before closing off in the northeast gulf. This might be what the UKMET would have looked like, or a slightly amped version of..... that said, the I-20 crowd will be rejoicing along with other parts of the Deep South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 the off shore system number 1 stayed around to long that run and got to strong which through the second piece off I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: Definite trend toward the euro here. Well defined 850 low cruising east to west across the lower TN Valley is now weaker and more broadly defined before closing off in the northeast gulf. This might be what the UKMET would have looked like, or a slightly amped version of..... that said, the I-20 crowd will be rejoicing along with other parts of the Deep South! Does anyone know why this storm would not have the northwest trend that so many of them eventually do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Does anyone know why this storm would not have the northwest trend that so many of them eventually do? Since the newest update to the Euro, I think that model has had a tendency to over amplify systems in the 4-7 day period. The fact that it's not, along with its individual ensembles, and the other modeling that is he same (showing a minimal/non-event) gives me reason to think this GFS run was a large step in the wrong direction... hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 All that said, being on the north edge of precip from 4-5 days out is never a bad thing so that is the counter argument. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18z GFS gives a nod to the weaker solution camp. I wouldn't call it a cave quite yet, but it is a big move. Ninas typically have some snows deep into the south. This fits climo. The questions that we will now ask...Is it done w the southward trend or does it cave completely to the Euro during the next few runs? I wouldn't pencil in a solution until this gets onshore. Have to think there is still one more big shift as the energy is better sampled. This solution leaves members in the southern areas of the forum in the game, I-40 southward. For those of us north of 40...our chances are slipping with today's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: All that said, being on the north edge of precip from 4-5 days out is never a bad thing so that is the counter argument. :-) I am the same way but I can recall a season not too many years ago where places that do not normally get snow ever, got more snow than Nashville, or even places further North than that and all everyone kept saying until like 36 hours before the event that modeling would trend north lol as bad as I would like to see this system I cannot imagine the angst that someone in Illinois, Indiana or Ohio would feel seeing places like Montgomery AL or Atlanta GA get more snow then they have had this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 There was some discussion about blocking last night. Today's runs are a great example of a block doing its work. Honestly, may be too much of a good thing for many in the forum area. I need to see the 0z Euro get on board tonight, even if a weak reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: All that said, being on the north edge of precip from 4-5 days out is never a bad thing so that is the counter argument. :-) I've learned over the years that I'd rather be on the northern edge this far out regardless of climo. We still may end up on the "losing" end but I'd bet dollars to donuts that we've yet to see a final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.