Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Not to keep this topic going as it probably belongs in banter but I want to throw my 2 cents in for the better or worse. Local TV mets can absolutely disagree with NWS, and I respect that actually. TV mets can bust and it be egg on their faces, when the NWS busts there is much much more criticism. I also want to remind those who have followed MRX discos for years on this and other forums while following models and weather that MRX Morning and Afternoon shifts are generally pretty conservative, while overnight has a tendency to be a bit more liberal. So this was shocking to me to see come out of the afternoon shift at MRX. That said, their analog they give was a bad situation for many who were not expecting the type of road conditions that we experienced in many areas. I lived in Michigan for a large part of my life that storm they give the analog for really brought back flashbacks to living up north, in that the snow while it was light every flake accumulated and was immediately packed to hard as concrete packed snow on a lot of roads which is not something we deal with in winter storms so often down here. This was really a product of the prolonged below freezing temps for longer than 24 hours prior to that event, this storm does have hallmarks of that and for some will likely begin before leaving home from work and school, just as that one did. I say to get attention they made the right call, and can scale back to WWA tomorrow if becomes a non-event but at least they got the word out that it is a possibility that this could be really bad at commute time tomorrow. Well said and I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like the next snow band is currently in KY...moving east/southeast and slowly building into Tennessee. I'd say John will see some snow from this band soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Stovepipe said: The Memphis area will be pushing 2 inches 10:1 by 16z tomorrow according to the latest HRRR. Thanks for mentioning that stovepipe, I like what I hear! It's been almost two years since our last solid snow storm so I'm pretty pumped. I hope everyone across the forum can score a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Chris Bailey from KY has some interesting thoughts. He has posted a NAM snapshot that he calls Friday into Friday evening. Actually, his post has me confused. If his two model posts are correct, East TN would be buried in snow. http://kyweathercenter.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Key for East Tennessee is to get that 850 mb low to gin up in time. One can look at the 500 mb chart and vorticity to see part of what is driving different forecasts. In addition to the main PVA over Tennessee, a weaker sheared out vorticity lobe tracks through the Deep South. It is quite elongated and weak, but plays an important role. Deep South feature needs to keep up with the main PVA to gin up the 850 mb low in time. Models are struggling a little bit because of the subtle feature, and the main system is already positively tilted anyway. Really from a physics standpoint the models are doing fine. Going back several days, the consistency from the long term is better than average. Easy to get frustrated being on the borderline, but the physics is also borderline. Just in time 850 mb low, pattern recognition says forecast little if any snow for CHA. Knoxville to TRI is still in the game iff the 850 mb low can get going. West and Middle Tennessee still have a chance of lighter snow during the day Friday, but will have to moisten the low levels. Different regions have different questions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 21z Sref Plumes ..... 1st picture - KCHA 2nd picture- TYS 3rd picture - TRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said: 21z Sref Plumes ..... 1st picture - KCHA 2nd picture- TYS 3rd picture - TRI Totally don't understand these lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: 21z Sref Plumes ..... 1st picture - KCHA 2nd picture- TYS 3rd picture - TRI There is your indication of what the NAM will likely look like. CHA mean at 5 inches now, with a big dog at 18".... TYS mean 7.5" big dog at 17"... Hmmm... Are we being NAM'd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: There is your indication of what the NAM will likely look like. CHA mean at 5 inches now, with a big dog at 18".... TYS mean 7.5" big dog at 17"... Hmmm... Are we being NAM'd? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ummm... I could have sworn that had to be in mm or something. I've seen a lot of crazy sref plooms but that has to take the cake lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 When I checked it I had to make sure I clicked the right city.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdwhynot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Latest Plumes for KBHM... A few showing some nice accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: 21z Sref Plumes ..... 1st picture - KCHA 2nd picture- TYS 3rd picture - TRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Stovepipe said: I don't know if I believe myself.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighKnob Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: 21z Sref Plumes ..... 1st picture - KCHA 2nd picture- TYS 3rd picture - TRI Interesting, it almost looks binomial distributed for TYS, at least to my newbie eyes. Dissapointed to read that Mark Reynolds stated he believed east tn to miss the heavy stuff (as of his fb post two hrs ago), called for 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said: Not to keep this topic going as it probably belongs in banter but I want to throw my 2 cents in for the better or worse. Local TV mets can absolutely disagree with NWS, and I respect that actually. TV mets can bust and it be egg on their faces, when the NWS busts there is much much more criticism. I also want to remind those who have followed MRX discos for years on this and other forums while following models and weather that MRX Morning and Afternoon shifts are generally pretty conservative, while overnight has a tendency to be a bit more liberal. So this was shocking to me to see come out of the afternoon shift at MRX. That said, their analog they give was a bad situation for many who were not expecting the type of road conditions that we experienced in many areas. I lived in Michigan for a large part of my life that storm they give the analog for really brought back flashbacks to living up north, in that the snow while it was light every flake accumulated and was immediately packed to hard as concrete packed snow on a lot of roads which is not something we deal with in winter storms so often down here. This was really a product of the prolonged below freezing temps for longer than 24 hours prior to that event, this storm does have hallmarks of that and for some will likely begin before leaving home from work and school, just as that one did. I say to get attention they made the right call, and can scale back to WWA tomorrow if becomes a non-event but at least they got the word out that it is a possibility that this could be really bad at commute time tomorrow. I will just add that NWS works a pretty brutal rotation so time of day should not really matter as opposed to specific met as they all work all the shifts. They HAVE to put an opinion out unlike anyone else so it will always be open to scrutiny, and I respect that totally. Their mission is also different so sometimes we will just have to disagree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Thinking the NAM is going to be way over amped. To a point where I don't think it's realistic at all. It's gonna phasing a bomb up the coast. Only thing actually makes sense is some of the SREF members in the Atlanta area actually went down. So a stronger storm pulling in a little WAA in that area seems realistic. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM is rolling...thru hour 21, looks like less moisture? Is this still in a good time frame for the NAM, or is it too close to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well two NAMs in a row hitting CHA...now we have a trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Snowing hard at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Unbelievable....GFS a few days ago nailed this one....lol. seriously don't get too excited, the RGEM will ruin it for us I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr Bob said: Well two NAMs in a row hitting CHA...now we have a trend... MRX sniffed this one out Bob haha! I hope it works out that you get a nice blanket of snow down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I see a lot of other guys and gals talking about the track of the NAM being wrong, but isn't this track the most common for our area? When the track was way in the south it was a once in every 50 year storm... I sorta new, but I feel like this is a more realistic track... ( probably wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nam same track tick slower looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: I'd like to cash out please. I really hope it's right. I'm reminded of the white Christmas in 2010 I believe. The NAM was the first model to pick up on the phase that brought us snow. It was around 18 hrs before the event IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wolf that map is hour 33...it's still snowing heavily at 36.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: MRX sniffed this one out Bob haha! I hope it works out that you get a nice blanket of snow down there! If this track verifies you got to hand it to MRX... They nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Reb said: Unbelievable....GFS a few days ago nailed this one....lol. seriously don't get too excited, the RGEM will ruin it for us I'm sure After seeing that I don't give a NAM about the RGEM. Ok, last time I use that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.