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1/5/17-1/8/17 Southern System.


John1122

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37 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Paul Barys from WRCB in Chattanooga just said in a radio interview the NWS has gone hog wild... doesn't know why they have the totals they have. kinda surprised m he would be that vocal against them. ( He was talking about Peachtree and Morristown)

Paul is a good guy and I agree with him on this one...we are headed into a weekend also so the impact of 2" of snow would be minimal. As to consistency, we have been the hole in the advisories between N GA and E TN before...while it is hard to complain after the last 6 years, the 12-14 year period before that was pretty bad for anything here. 

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2 minutes ago, Mr Bob said:

Paul is a good guy and I agree with him on this one...we are headed into a weekend also so the impact of 2" of snow would be minimal. As to consistency, we have been the hole in the advisories between N GA and E TN before...while it is hard to complain after the last 6 years, the 12-14 year period before that was pretty bad for anything here. 

 

Paul is and I agree with him as well, but I just was kinda shocked he went against the NWS like that. 

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I can't really complain about MRX being more gun-ho the last few winters.  I moved here from KY in 2003, and most of the time until the last few years, they were too conservative with issuing winter weather products or watches.  Or they would wait until the event was well under way, then suddenly issue an advisory, or upgrade to a warning.  I remember that happening on multiple occasions.  Since winters have become worse beginning around 2009, they seem more apt to issue winter weather advisories and warnings.  It's gradually happened over the last few years, but the change has been very noticeable.  Perhaps after the almost snowless late 90's & 2000's, they just couldn't believe winter weather was still possible here.  ;)

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7 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

One thing I'm very happy about is there is nothing to suggest there are any temperature issues in the Tennessee Valley with this event.  It seems that is rarely the case.

If we had a "like" button, I would have hit it until it broke on this comment. 

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Snowfall has covered the radar over me for 8 hours and it still is not meeting the ground the first wave has been a bust but the radar disagrees <_<. I understand that at first snowfall may not reach the ground but this is just painful to watch. Quite de-moralizing for the 2nd wave. Phew had to get that off my chest anyway hopefully models continue to follow in line for the Tenessee valley

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7 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Does anyone know what the Vipircast consist of or is made up of?? 

Screen Shot 2017-01-05 at 6.01.51 PM.png

Probably an in-house RPM model.

 

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


He keeps his hand there long enough and we'll end up with 4 to 8.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LMAO!

 

3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Snowfall has covered the radar over me for 8 hours and it still is not meeting the ground the first wave has been a bust but the radar disagrees <_<. I understand that at first snowfall may not reach the ground but this is just painful to watch. Quite de-moralizing for the 2nd wave. Phew had to get that off my chest anyway hopefully models continue to follow in line for the Tenessee valley

Don't worry, this first wave was mostly to moisten up the atmosphere and usher in the cold.  The main events begin tomorrow and you should do well.

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5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The German was the first to trend towards what the NAM and to some extent, the GFS have been trending towards today. Maybe their engineering is superior in weather models.

If this pans out I may have to dress my snowwoman as an Oktoberfest Beer Maiden!

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Also per Wow, the German is back to pouring snow on a good chunk of the forum.

EGj0W7Z.png&key=2547775713c57b86bf7cfa78b325068f49f9c6d5544278afbf579b677fb7ad74



That's about .8 of QPF on the Smokies and .4-.6 QPF for the valley. I'll be honest I didn't know the German model existed until yesterday but it will score the coup in my book if it turns out to be true.
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Not to keep this topic going as it probably belongs in banter but I want to throw my 2 cents in for the better or worse.  Local TV mets can absolutely disagree with NWS, and  I respect that actually.  TV mets can bust and it be egg on their faces, when the NWS busts there is much much more criticism.  I also want to remind those who have followed MRX discos for years on this and other forums while following models and weather that MRX Morning and Afternoon shifts are generally pretty conservative, while overnight has a tendency to be a bit more liberal.  So this was shocking to me to see come out of the afternoon shift at MRX.  That said, their analog they give was a bad situation for many who were not expecting the type of road conditions that we experienced in many areas.  I lived in Michigan for a large part of my life that storm they give the analog for really brought back flashbacks to living up north, in that the snow while it was light every flake accumulated and was immediately packed to hard as concrete packed snow on a lot of roads which is not something we deal with in winter storms so often down here.  This was really a product of the prolonged below freezing temps for longer than 24 hours prior to that event, this storm does have hallmarks of that and for some will likely begin before leaving home from work and school, just as that one did.  I say to get attention they made the right call, and can scale back to WWA tomorrow if becomes a non-event but at least they got the word out that it is a possibility that this could be really bad at commute time tomorrow.  

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5 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

 


That's about .8 of QPF on the Smokies and .4-.6 QPF for the valley. I'll be honest I didn't know the German model existed until yesterday but it will score the coup in my book if it turns out to be true.

 

Dude, if the German has it's way you're going to be living the Salt Life again!

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