Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: Paul Barys from WRCB in Chattanooga just said in a radio interview the NWS has gone hog wild... doesn't know why they have the totals they have. kinda surprised m he would be that vocal against them. ( He was talking about Peachtree and Morristown) Paul is a good guy and I agree with him on this one...we are headed into a weekend also so the impact of 2" of snow would be minimal. As to consistency, we have been the hole in the advisories between N GA and E TN before...while it is hard to complain after the last 6 years, the 12-14 year period before that was pretty bad for anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Anyone else still skeptical?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: Paul is a good guy and I agree with him on this one...we are headed into a weekend also so the impact of 2" of snow would be minimal. As to consistency, we have been the hole in the advisories between N GA and E TN before...while it is hard to complain after the last 6 years, the 12-14 year period before that was pretty bad for anything here. Paul is and I agree with him as well, but I just was kinda shocked he went against the NWS like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 21z HRRR hour 18: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 One thing I'm very happy about is there is nothing to suggest there are any temperature issues in the Tennessee Valley with this event. It seems that is rarely the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Apologies if this was already posted (if so I will delete), the 18z Para NAM 3km snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Not signed in Guessing the WSW is out of caution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I can't really complain about MRX being more gun-ho the last few winters. I moved here from KY in 2003, and most of the time until the last few years, they were too conservative with issuing winter weather products or watches. Or they would wait until the event was well under way, then suddenly issue an advisory, or upgrade to a warning. I remember that happening on multiple occasions. Since winters have become worse beginning around 2009, they seem more apt to issue winter weather advisories and warnings. It's gradually happened over the last few years, but the change has been very noticeable. Perhaps after the almost snowless late 90's & 2000's, they just couldn't believe winter weather was still possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: One thing I'm very happy about is there is nothing to suggest there are any temperature issues in the Tennessee Valley with this event. It seems that is rarely the case. If we had a "like" button, I would have hit it until it broke on this comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 David Aldrich is VERY excited about this storm! Credit goes to Reb who texted me the pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Does anyone know what the Vipircast consist of or is made up of?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 David Aldrich is VERY excited about this storm! Credit goes to Reb who texted me the pic.He keeps his hand there long enough and we'll end up with 4 to 8. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Snowfall has covered the radar over me for 8 hours and it still is not meeting the ground the first wave has been a bust but the radar disagrees . I understand that at first snowfall may not reach the ground but this is just painful to watch. Quite de-moralizing for the 2nd wave. Phew had to get that off my chest anyway hopefully models continue to follow in line for the Tenessee valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: Does anyone know what the Vipircast consist of or is made up of?? Probably an in-house RPM model. 6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: He keeps his hand there long enough and we'll end up with 4 to 8. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk LMAO! 3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Snowfall has covered the radar over me for 8 hours and it still is not meeting the ground the first wave has been a bust but the radar disagrees . I understand that at first snowfall may not reach the ground but this is just painful to watch. Quite de-moralizing for the 2nd wave. Phew had to get that off my chest anyway hopefully models continue to follow in line for the Tenessee valley Don't worry, this first wave was mostly to moisten up the atmosphere and usher in the cold. The main events begin tomorrow and you should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 They just closed Hamilton County schools.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: David Aldrich is VERY excited about this storm! Credit goes to Reb who texted me the pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wave is now on shore and per Wow in the SE forum is stronger than modeled. Could translate to higher heights to the East and a more NW storm track, closer to the NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The Memphis area will be pushing 2 inches 10:1 by 16z tomorrow according to the latest HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, John1122 said: Wave is now on shore and per Wow in the SE forum is stronger than modeled. Could translate to higher heights to the East and a more NW storm track, closer to the NAM solution. This is good for Chattanooga and all of East Tennessee right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: Wave is now on shore and per Wow in the SE forum is stronger than modeled. Could translate to higher heights to the East and a more NW storm track, closer to the NAM solution. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Tucker1027 said: This is good for Chattanooga and all of East Tennessee right? Anything that makes the precip shield more North and West is better for more people in our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Also per Wow, the German is back to pouring snow on a good chunk of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 The German was the first to trend towards what the NAM and to some extent, the GFS have been trending towards today. Maybe their engineering is superior in weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: The German was the first to trend towards what the NAM and to some extent, the GFS have been trending towards today. Maybe their engineering is superior in weather models. If this pans out I may have to dress my snowwoman as an Oktoberfest Beer Maiden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: If this pans out I may have to dress my snowwoman as an Oktoberfest Beer Maiden! Only in this forum can you get German and French weather models thanks to da Stove! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, JayCee said: Only in this forum can you get German and French weather models thanks to da Stove! To be fair I straight up stole it from Wow in the SE forum. It's his favorite new model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Also per Wow, the German is back to pouring snow on a good chunk of the forum.That's about .8 of QPF on the Smokies and .4-.6 QPF for the valley. I'll be honest I didn't know the German model existed until yesterday but it will score the coup in my book if it turns out to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Not to keep this topic going as it probably belongs in banter but I want to throw my 2 cents in for the better or worse. Local TV mets can absolutely disagree with NWS, and I respect that actually. TV mets can bust and it be egg on their faces, when the NWS busts there is much much more criticism. I also want to remind those who have followed MRX discos for years on this and other forums while following models and weather that MRX Morning and Afternoon shifts are generally pretty conservative, while overnight has a tendency to be a bit more liberal. So this was shocking to me to see come out of the afternoon shift at MRX. That said, their analog they give was a bad situation for many who were not expecting the type of road conditions that we experienced in many areas. I lived in Michigan for a large part of my life that storm they give the analog for really brought back flashbacks to living up north, in that the snow while it was light every flake accumulated and was immediately packed to hard as concrete packed snow on a lot of roads which is not something we deal with in winter storms so often down here. This was really a product of the prolonged below freezing temps for longer than 24 hours prior to that event, this storm does have hallmarks of that and for some will likely begin before leaving home from work and school, just as that one did. I say to get attention they made the right call, and can scale back to WWA tomorrow if becomes a non-event but at least they got the word out that it is a possibility that this could be really bad at commute time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, 1234snow said: That's about .8 of QPF on the Smokies and .4-.6 QPF for the valley. I'll be honest I didn't know the German model existed until yesterday but it will score the coup in my book if it turns out to be true. Dude, if the German has it's way you're going to be living the Salt Life again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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