Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 RGEM still to south tho is that cause to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: And that's fine, but FFC has different warning criteria than MRX. Definitely understand...and I agree that it may not be warranted there unless they see something I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: RGEM still to south tho is that cause to worry. Yep. Again, like going into a naval battle without your carriers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: RGEM still to south tho is that cause to worry. Cause for pause... Worry not necessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 RGEM has a much larger precip shield at 30 vs 12z at 36. 12z 18z at same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yep. Again, like going into a naval battle without your carriers. but if gfs follows nam it will be better right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: RGEM has a much larger precip shield at 30 vs 12z at 36. 12z 18z at same hour. Good trend. Thanks for posting. Been out playing taxi for school pick-up. Just now returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 RGEM isn't the major hit the NAM is, but it's moved 50+ miles NW with it's precip shield that run. 12z RGEM at 42 18z at same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: but if gfs follows nam it will be better right After looking at what John posted, it may be trending. This has high bust potential either way, but I will always take last minute trends. The only bullseye that matters is reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z RGEM Snowfall 18z RGEM snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: RGEM has a much larger precip shield at 30 vs 12z at 36. That is good to see! Could be the trend echoed by the NAM with less amplification as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Paul Barys from WRCB in Chattanooga just said in a radio interview the NWS has gone hog wild... doesn't know why they have the totals they have. kinda surprised m he would be that vocal against them. ( He was talking about Peachtree and Morristown) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshNeoG Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Sleet falling west Knoxville South of i40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Paul Barys from WRCB in Chattanooga just said in a radio interview the NWS has gone hog wild... doesn't know why they have the totals they have. kinda surprised m he would be that vocal against them. ( He was talking about Peachtree and Morristown)That's a great way to improve public perception and trust in meteorology. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: Paul Barys from WRCB in Chattanooga just said in a radio interview the NWS has gone hog wild... doesn't know why they have the totals they have. kinda surprised m he would be that vocal against them. ( He was talking about Peachtree and Morristown) All I can guess is they are trying to keep continuity or they have something we can't see. But Mr Bob raised the question...and he can see a lot we can't. Even further out on a limb...maybe they have some software that is predicting trends. But like John said, looks like they went with the watch and may scale back to an advisory. They have taken a bunch of criticism (I think unfairly) over the wind situation in Gatlinburg. Prob just using caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Sleet falling west Knoxville South of i40Snowing in HallsSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: gfs looks horrible at 33 miss in tn False Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: gfs looks horrible at 33 miss in tn Not sure what you are seeing there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Not as impressive but definently not a miss. let's not get our hopes too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Not sure what you are seeing there... at 33 I wasn't seeing much of anything in tn at that time it was missing us is what I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Radar returns increasing across the TN valley in and around Knoxville. Very fine sleet pellets falling here, even though nothing showing on radar over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 We're pulling into short range model territory now and leaving global territory behind. This event is not far off the HRRR window and I'd give more weight to high res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 and sorry I was wrong on that here is the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: We're pulling into short range model territory now and leaving global territory behind. This event is not far off the HRRR window and I'd give more weight to high res models. U think we need an observation thread for this storm? Fire it up if so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The track of the storm on 18z GFS was a tick NW again. However, the precip field didn't reflect that for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: and sorry I was wrong on that here is the gfs Honestly, I think a GFS/NAM blend is the way to go. The NAM had the low 70 miles NW of where the GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: U think we need an observation thread for this storm? Fire it up if so... I definitely think you guys east of here should have one. I think SWVa to Tri to Pigeon Forge has almost locked down 2+ at this point. Good chance that Knox to Morristown is also there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Vol4Life said: The track of the storm on 18z GFS was a tick NW again. However, the precip field didn't reflect that for some reason. That is how I saw it. On Tropical Tidbits, you can toggle the same time frame between runs. Looked to me like it was a tad less sharp to our north. There is also less accumulation in Delaware. That extra lean towards the NE coast is the signal for a storm that doesn't back as much. My guess is that northern piece that streaks across northern MS and AL is not as strong on thus run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On January 5, 2017 at 4:57 PM, John1122 said: I definitely think you guys east of here should have one. I think SWVa to Tri to Pigeon Forge has almost locked down 2+ at this point. Good chance that Knox to Morristown is also there. So, I say let's put them in the observation thread. If we are still showing something at 0z...maybe somebody can post an one thread...unless somebody wants to now. That happy hour GFS has me cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 20z HRRR hour 18: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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