JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, PowellVolz said: MRX just pulled the trigger. WSW Friday night/Saturday 2-5" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I guess they are noticing the model trends. Western NC also issued WSW for 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The ratios are basically 18:1-20:1 over the Plateau, 15:1-16:1 over the Central East Valley, 17:1-19:1 over NE/SWVA.Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 I am one county away from the Winter Storm Watch area. Surprised MRX is this aggressive with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Didn't the NAM do well in the Feb 2014 storm that dumped on east TN? I may be off on my dates. This storm isn't quite the same situation, but I believe it's similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, tnweathernut said: PM sent AMZ, good luck to you guys out that way. Hope it overperforms! Thanks Buddy. Hope you guys get a good snow on your side of the state too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, st116 said: Didn't the NAM do well in the Feb 2014 storm that dumped on east TN? I may be off on my dates. This storm isn't quite the same situation, but I believe it's similar. No, it and the GFS basically advertised nothing here until the last minute. 36 hours out, it basically had no snow on this side of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 There hasn't been a model run today that I'm aware of that didn't give us between 2 and 5 inches. MRX did the right thing.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, st116 said: Didn't the NAM do well in the Feb 2014 storm that dumped on east TN? I may be off on my dates. This storm isn't quite the same situation, but I believe it's similar. I believe you are right. I think the NAM is in its wheelhouse right now and we will have to watch the 00z run and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 A curious move for Hamilton County...Other than the 18Z NAM nothing has really shown worthy of 2-4 " here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr Bob said: A curious move for Hamilton County...Other than the 18Z NAM nothing has really shown worthy of 2-4 " here.... I was most stunned by that myself. I guess they see something beyond models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: A curious move for Hamilton County...Other than the 18Z NAM nothing has really shown worthy of 2-4 " here.... I feel the same way, but they get paid for this stuff and I don't so I hope they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Jeff and I are scratching our heads but it is just a watch I suppose....They must have wanted to hit the evening news cycle today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, John1122 said: I was most stunned by that myself. I guess they see something beyond models. Things are trending in our favor it seems based on recent runs... I still don't quite get the inconsistencies from model-to-model though. But back to 2014. It seemed every hour things just kept getting better and better. As someone pointed out recently, it is a long shot for the low to to take the path it was taking in the previous day and a half or two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 The 3k NAM is likely going to have 4-8 for most of East Tennessee from say, Crossville to Athens to Monroe County and North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr Bob said: Jeff and I are scratching our heads but it is just a watch I suppose....They must have wanted to hit the evening news cycle today. Probably just incase it makes a west shift not predicted by the models and drops more significant snow just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 From MRX: POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOULD THE TRACK DEVIATE FURTHER TO THE WEST. Perhaps they are covering all their bases now, and they will trim back the western portion tomorrow morning and replace with an Advisory. Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the areas of north AL not covered in the winter storm watch. Looks like a large area of north Georgia is under a winter storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, st116 said: Things are trending in our favor it seems based on recent runs... I still don't quite get the inconsistencies from model-to-model though. But back to 2014. It seemed every hour things just kept getting better and better. As someone pointed out recently, it is a long shot for the low to to take the path it was taking in the previous day and a half or two days. I don't see a trend yet...perhaps 18Z NAM is the start but we will just have to wait and see. Model inconsistencies are inherent with the solution they are trying to create. You will never get a perfect solution when you can't possibly model everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: The 3k NAM is likely going to have 4-8 for most of East Tennessee from say, Crossville to Athens to Monroe County and North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Quote One last note, the closest Analog for this event is the January 28, 2014, winter storm that dropped 2-4 inches of snow across the region, and created treacherous road conditions on untreated surfaces to the subfreezing temperatures. From MRX. I recall getting around 2 inches of snow that day, Knox to Tri got 3-5. It was frigid, temps in the 10s when the snow was falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Quote The SREF Plumes for KCHA are looking good and in line with NAM totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr Bob said: I don't see a trend yet...perhaps 18Z NAM is the start but we will just have to wait and see. Model inconsistencies are inherent with the solution they are trying to create. You will never get a perfect solution when you can't possibly model everything. NW movement has started to take place in recent runs (depending on the model). That is the trend I am speaking of. It hasn't been much, but it has favored our area just so slightly. It will be fun to watch either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, John1122 said: From MRX. I recall getting around 2 inches of snow that day, Knox to Tri got 3-5. It was frigid, temps in the 10s when the snow was falling. Got a solid 3-6" with that event. Came with surprise too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Still snowing per 3k NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Final 3k tally. 16 inches near Mountain City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 28 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: A curious move for Hamilton County...Other than the 18Z NAM nothing has really shown worthy of 2-4 " here.... Just a guess, but I bet they just wanted continuity since all of north GA is under a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Final 3k tally. It must bee seeing BL temp issues here. That doesn't match up with qpf. Hope it's wrong. That will be painful to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Just a guess, but I bet they just wanted continuity since all of north GA is under a warning. And that's fine, but FFC has different warning criteria than MRX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 MRX said they issued a watch to watch future model trends basically. A slight move to the west puts everyone in the Watch area in need of a warning. If that appears unlikely they will almost assuredly go to a WWA. They have a huge range on the ZFP. Anderson Co, to my south has a forecast for tomorrow night of 1 to 5 inches of snow possible. Basically never see that kind of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 look at the 4k nam looks just as good out to 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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