Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: 15z SREF mean has bumped up again. TRI at 5+, CHA at 2+, TYS at 4+. There are some big dogs in there. Just another data point to take in. I do expect the 18z NAM to hold serve or improve based on that though. 4-5 is getting close to a big dog anyway Stove! Time to bring out the dog Meme! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: 15z SREF mean has bumped up again. TRI at 5+, CHA at 2+, TYS at 4+, BNA at 1, CSV at 2. There are some big dogs in there. Just another data point to take in. I do expect the 18z NAM to hold serve or improve based on that though. Hush your mouth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Interesting... KCHA had a high of 46 today and we have barley hit 37 so far. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hush your mouth! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Carver, 2 to 3" is a little safe for you. I'm thinking 3 to 5" for Kingsport/Gate City, increasing east. Bristol 4 to 6", Abingdon/Damascus 5 to 7". Top of Clinch, Holston, Mtn City 7 to 9" and the high points on Roan and Rogers 10 to 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Not sure how much it can be trusted, but this should be the NAM's wheelhouse. Much healthier for wave 2 as it lines it up across Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM at 18z is slightly deeper at 500, a little slower at hour 24. This should also be a good run just comparing it to the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 This may be a pretty big NAM run again, deform band sets up over eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hearing NAM may be a big hit for Tennessee Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18Z NAM is looking prettier yet for East TN @ 36!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Lawdy mercy the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Take with a grain of salt, not much support from other models for this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, John1122 said: Take with a grain of salt, not much support from other models for this yet. but it has been trending this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The Nam nailed Jonas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM still cranking at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: NAM still cranking at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 WOW. I don't give a NAM about the other models. Just let it be right!! That would be a big dawg for east TN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, JayCee said: WOW. I don't give a NAM about the other models. Just let it be right!! That would be a big dawg for east TN!! especially with he higher ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, JayCee said: WOW. I don't give a NAM about the other models. Just let it be right!! That would be a big dawg for east TN!! Really wish there were like buttons on the forums... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NAM is basically the best possible case, but also not terribly likely imo. I do think far Eastern areas are still in good shape, especially if you border North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 What do you folks think, 15:1 for TYS and TRI and 18:1 over the Smokies and Blue Ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NAM (unless significantly updated) tends to overdo precip. A lot of times you can cut 30-50% off. There is a reason we call it "getting NAM'D". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Very light radar returns and flurries in Alcoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, tnweathernut said: The NAM (unless significantly updated) tends to overdo precip. A lot of times you can cut 30-50% off. There is a reason we call it "getting NAM'D". lol It's just a much better track than the other models too. It's like a perfect NAM storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM is basically the best possible case, but also not terribly likely imo. I do think far Eastern areas are still in good shape, especially if you border North Carolina. Yes, I think it's overdone a bit, but it does show a good trend for east TN. I live near the eastern edge of Sevier Co, and it looks like a respectable 3-4 inches could happen over this way. But I do hope all of the forum fans gets a good thumping at some point during the next two days. Here's to sharing in the white wealth with my neighbors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 MRX just pulled the trigger. WSW Friday night/Saturday 2-5"Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Really wish there were like buttons on the forums... I was thinking the same thing... I love the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * EVENT... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH... WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TONIGHT. A SECOND WINTER STORM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION... WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. * TIMING... THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS... TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS ONCE THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINS. MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS OFTEN DEVELOP FIRST. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING... WHICH WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Issuing Office: Knoxville/Tri-Cities Source: National.Weather.Service 3:24pm EST, Thu Jan 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 The ratios are basically 18:1-20:1 over the Plateau, 15:1-16:1 over the Central East Valley, 17:1-19:1 over NE/SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It's just a much better track than the other models too. It's like a perfect NAM storm. Isnt that much further north than other modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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