Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: euro looks anerexic Improved over 0z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 so gfs rgem nam all favorable to us with good snowfall does it rally matter what the euro says ?? I mean look at the wide open areas with no snow the other models give snow to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Mrwolf1972 said: so gfs rgem nam all favorable to us with good snowfall does it rally matter what the euro says ?? Well it is known as the king, but to be fair that is a 10:1 ratio. 15:1 would look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just to give some hope, the NAM nailed Jonas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 So in regards to the East TN central valley, the 12z runs have the GFS/NAM/Ukie/SREF at 3 to 4 inches with ratios (or more) and CMC/RGEM/EURO at around 2. That's not a terrible place to be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 the eastern vally ratio is like 17,18-1 from the gfs map in southeast forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownNDirtyTN Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm so confused. Are we going to be hurting for moisture now? It looks like the track has been moving more and more NW. I'm definitely not an intellectual giant when looking at weather maps. I love learning new things though and really appreciate the input here and I feel like even though I still don't personally know much I do learn alot just reading through these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, DownNDirtyTN said: I'm so confused. Are we going to be hurting for moisture now? It looks like the track has been moving more and more NW. I'm definitely not an intellectual giant when looking at weather maps. I love learning new things though and really appreciate the input here and I feel like even though I still don't personally know much I do learn alot just reading through these threads. different models different answers tot that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: So in regards to the central valley, the 12z runs have the GFS/NAM/Ukie/SREF at 3 to 4 inches with ratios (or more) and CMC/RGEM/EURO at around 2. That's not a terrible place to be right now. Our part of the Central Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, jaxjagman said: Our part of the Central Valley? I'm sorry, I was referring to East TN. I'll edit the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: euro looks anerexic I do like that everybody in the Tennessee area is showing some kind of accumulation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Stovepipe said: I'm sorry, I was referring to East TN. I'll edit the post. That's ok :)We know you folks on the other side forget we are here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: the central vally ratio is like 17,18-1 from the gfs map in southeast forum That would definitely beef up the totals for sure. I know there are some 15:1 ECMWF maps out there. Maybe someone will share what it would be to match the Kuchara ratio maps we've seen today from the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, jaxjagman said: That's ok :)We know you folks on the other side forget we are here Haha, we sure didn't forget where you guys were last year b/c you were in the crosshairs! Besides, I have a LOT of family in the northern middle TN area so I always check out what's going on over your way. I hope the second wave can hold together it's precip field a little longer for you guys. Some modeling takes that tongue directly into the midstate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jed33 said: That would definitely beef up the totals for sure. I know there are some 15:1 ECMWF maps out there. Maybe someone will share what it would be to match the Kuchara ratio maps we've seen today from the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: That's ok :)We know you folks on the other side forget we are here Ive done that many times. The problem with our local East TN geographic terminology VS forum terminology. I got were I try to remember when referring to the East Tennessee Valley sub regions of Northern, Central and Southern to say The Great Valley or Central Valley of East Tennessee. Its hard to remember to do that sometimes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 sits patiently at work waiting on next set of models hop for even more better news . wish I could find the RGEM run times found every other but it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 So basically 3" from Knoxville then more north and east. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Can somebody get a picture of this map with it showing the whole state?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z JAN05 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) THU 12Z 05-JAN 28.6 16.9 03004 0.00 0.00 100 THU 18Z 05-JAN 36.7 28.6 36.1 20.6 02001 0.00 0.00 97 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 36.3 33.7 34.0 26.2 26003 0.05 0.04 95 FRI 06Z 06-JAN 34.4 29.5 29.4 24.3 01004 0.01 0.01 99 FRI 12Z 06-JAN 29.4 25.7 25.7 18.2 01005 0.01 0.01 96 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 27.2 25.2 26.9 17.2 01005 0.02 0.02 100 SAT 00Z 07-JAN 27.7 24.5 24.5 15.5 02006 0.01 0.01 98 SAT 06Z 07-JAN 24.5 21.8 21.7 10.5 01007 0.02 0.02 98 SAT 12Z 07-JAN 21.8 19.0 18.9 5.4 00008 0.04 0.04 88 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z JAN05 PRESSURE LEVELS SFC 1000 950 925 900 850 800 700 600 500 MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) THU 12Z 05-JAN -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -10 -12 -21 THU 18Z 05-JAN 2 3 0 0 0 -1 -4 -8 -12 -21 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 1 3 0 -1 -2 -5 -6 -6 -11 -20 FRI 06Z 06-JAN -1 0 -3 -4 -6 -7 -7 -5 -9 -19 FRI 12Z 06-JAN -4 -2 -5 -7 -9 -10 -8 -5 -10 -18 FRI 18Z 06-JAN -3 -2 -5 -7 -9 -10 -8 -6 -10 -19 SAT 00Z 07-JAN -4 -3 -6 -8 -9 -10 -7 -7 -10 -19 SAT 06Z 07-JAN -6 -5 -8 -9 -10 -11 -9 -9 -13 -20 SAT 12Z 07-JAN -7 -7 -10 -11 -12 -13 -12 -13 -18 -25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 At this point we really need to look at trends. Yes, a slight northwest trend is happening which we all expected. No way those models were going to pull back entirely. But...they pulled back just enough to make it interesting and entertaining. Normally, with these types of systems it is tough without a big low so far to our southeast to get enough precip over the mountain to overcome downsloping. These central NC systems have a bad habit of stopping at the state line. I have literally driven to NC(about 45 mins from here) and gone from nothing to 2'. But today's trends were to the northwest with a more expansive precip shield and a system that backed just enough to get the eastern Valley involved. And maybe our folks in Alabama and Mississippi will get a taste of winter. I would have turned in my hobby card if this system hadn't come northwest. So, glad to know the bias is still there. Next time we want to see the low in south Georgia with 48 hrs to go...not northwest of Tampa. The margin for snow in E TN is razor thin, but it is better than having no chance. The ceiling for TRI is prob 3-6 " with more likely 1.5-3". I will leave our Knoxville folks to guess for their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Thanks tnweathernut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Can somebody get a picture of this map with it showing the whole state?? Yeah, for some reason I didn't realize you were in southwest TN! We will see what we can do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, for some reason I didn't realize you were in southwest TN! We will see what we can do... Thanks Carvers Gap, Yeah I think I may be the lone ranger over here in west Tennessee. I haven't seen anyone near me posting on this event since we all started talking about it last week. It is hard to believe how long we have all been watching this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 41 minutes ago, DownNDirtyTN said: I'm so confused. Are we going to be hurting for moisture now? It looks like the track has been moving more and more NW. I'm definitely not an intellectual giant when looking at weather maps. I love learning new things though and really appreciate the input here and I feel like even though I still don't personally know much I do learn alot just reading through these threads. Being closer to the mountains will help IMO. The 11-E corridor from your area northward looks to have a decent chance based on the 12z suite. Obviously, the further northeast that you go...the better. I am sure you have seen that many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Thanks Carvers Gap, Yeah I think I may be the lone ranger over here in west Tennessee. I haven't seen anyone near me posting on this event since we all started talking about it last week. It is hard to believe how long we have all been watching this storm. We have a few. Winters in southwest TN have been not the best for winter weather recently. Still digging for that map. (Edit) Tnweathernut will prob send it to you via the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Think the guidance is enough for MRX to issue a winter weather advisory for central to eastern parts of the area for Friday night's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Can somebody get a picture of this map with it showing the whole state?? PM sent AMZ, good luck to you guys out that way. Hope it overperforms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 15z SREF mean has bumped up again. TRI at 5+, CHA at 2+, TYS at 4+, BNA at 1, CSV at 2. There are some big dogs in there. Just another data point to take in. I do expect the 18z NAM to hold serve or improve based on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: 15z SREF mean has bumped up again. TRI at 5+, CHA at 2+, TYS at 4+, BNA at 1, CSV at 2. There are some big dogs in there. Just another data point to take in. I do expect the 18z NAM to hold serve or improve based on that though. For anyone wanting to hunt and peck themselves, here is the link I use. THANKS, STOVE! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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