Reb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Good stuff blunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here is the Nam 3km model with Kuchera snowfall totals at hour 50 with snow showers still lurking. While probably too good to be true it's tantalizing to think about.Cut in half, that's still an area wide 3-4" storm total. The trends are good, my friends.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z RGEM is east of NAM w precip shield, speaking of entire run. Looks east of its own 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I might need to take a road trip to the in-laws in Greeneville, TN..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Swing and a miss on RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here is the Nam 3km model with Kuchera snowfall totals at hour 50, with snow showers still lurking. While probably too good to be true, it's tantalizing to think about.Totals don't necessarily matter at this point but the fact this showed almost nothing last night does matter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: Swing and a miss on RGEM. Yep. East and faster than its own 6z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 rgem 48hr snowfall maps look same 6z and 12z gfs is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Total RGEM precip at 12z. Edited to add 6Z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I guess getting overly excited in premature at this point. RGEM takes the precip further east than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 RPM run out of Huntsville. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12 gfs snowfall is up in east tn @ 48 and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12 gfs snowfall is up in east tn @ 48 and still snowingThat looks a lot like the NAMSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 if it could trend closer to coast like nam we could get a lot more then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12Z GFS had a slightly larger precip shield. Looking at the differences in it and 06Z I see what Carver was talking about in regards to the low digging a little further south in NM. The 12Z appears it dug a little deeper in NM. I could be wrong though. Still learning things every year. This is a stressful but fun hobby for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Can we please fill in that area from Dalton to Chattanooga ??? Please lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Tucker1027 said: Can we please fill in that area from Dalton to Chattanooga ??? Please lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yea...What's up with that ugly tongue going into Chattanooga??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 If the energy keeps digging and trending stronger, you'd have to believe that the precip will continue to move NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Vol4Life said: If the energy keeps digging and trending stronger, you'd have to believe that the precip will continue to move NW That's what I was thinking too. We have already seen it come NW from yesterday to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, Jed33 said: 12Z GFS had a slightly larger precip shield. Looking at the differences in it and 06Z I see what Carver was talking about in regards to the low digging a little further south in NM. The 12Z appears it dug a little deeper in NM. I could be wrong though. Still learning things every year. This is a stressful but fun hobby for sure You can look back at a post I had about the trough axis and see it change. Now, the "why" to that post I did not see at the time. The guys in the SE forum have a better eye for spotting those trends well before the energy even gets to the point where I can draw an axis. A couple of those folks know (within the first twelve hours of a run) if it is going to dig. The more it digs, the closer it gets to neutral tilt. How much each model does that has big implications. Less digging and it slides south of Delaware. More and it gets to Boston. The vorticity maps have a lot of that info. 700 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 if we can keep building the moisture and take the 12 nam track we could get a decent storm anyone know the 15-1 to 17-1 on the gfs map, the cmc is running hope it keeps trending to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: You can look back at a post I had about the trough axis and see it change. Now, the "why" to that post I did not see at the time. The guys in the SE forum have a better eye for spotting those trends well before the energy even gets to the point where I can draw an axis. A couple of those folks know (within the first twelve hours of a run) if it is going to dig. The more it digs, the closer it gets to neutral tilt. How much each model does that has big implications. Less digging and it slides south of Delaware. More and it gets to Boston. The vorticity maps have a lot of tha info. 700 I think. Ah yes I see where that would be the case. Thanks Carver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Need the RGEM to trend our way. Like going into a naval battle without your carriers IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Gets into the single digits and around zero Sunday AM after the snow according to that map. If it verifies that much snow would probably be enough to send temps that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Need the RGEM to trend our way. Like going into a naval battle without your carriers IMO. how often does the RGEM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Good ol' NW trend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: how often does the RGEM run Four times per day. The CMC is south which is not unexpected. Somebody remind me, is the RGEM just a higher resolution version of the global to 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hopefully, the GFS is sniffing out something good, and the RGEM will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Also, for a met or someone in the know...is it possible that the Canadian or American suite has newer model data or do they draw from the same source at the same time? Really, the models are not very far apart when thinking of things on a global scale. They are just a hair different. What is the saying, "Football is a game of inches?" Doesn't take much to swing these. Anyone want to see which initialized better of the two short range and long range models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st116 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Guys, I have seen some recent consistent inconsistencies as we draw closer. Any clues about why the models in general are struggling? I told a friend this storm may be the Donald Trump of the election. Most of the consensus was Hillary, but as it drew closer, Donald pulled it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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