John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm gonna hope the WWA 1 inch can verify. Then watch the 5 different rain events the GFS is currently advertising probably all come to pass over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm gonna hope the WWA 1 inch can verify. Then watch the 5 different rain events the GFS is currently advertising probably all come to pass over the next two weeks. Ditto that John. Guarantee those pan out. It appears our best hope was with the first wave of which trended north and leaves us in a gap between the two for the most part. A dry tongue of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Was that during the 2 week stretch where snow was on the ground the whole time and we got below zero a few mornings? Sent from my iPhone using TapatalTapatalk 5 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Was that during the 2 week stretch where snow was on the ground the whole time and we got below zero a few mornings? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It was the Miller A that was supposed to stay mainly East of the area according to most models and forecasters. Feb. 2015 was the long stretch cold/snowy one as 35 to 45 inches fell here in Lee county in about a 3 week period. 16 below zero at my home the 20th. 20 below reported in Pennington gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here's the latest disco from MRX: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 355 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)... Clouds will increase across the forecast area this morning, ahead of a clipper system that will push through the area this evening through Friday morning. High temperatures today will reach the upper 30s across the Cumberland Plateau and southwest Virginia, the lower 40s across the Tennessee Valley, and the mid 40s near the TN/GA line before colder air rushes in behind the arctic front. Rain showers will change over to snow this evening across the northern Plateau and Cumberland Mountains, then snow showers will spread further south overnight. With overnight lows in the 20s, snow will accumulate and cause some travel difficulties -- especially on untreated roadways. Total snowfall through Friday morning will range from 1-3 inches (with locally higher amounts) across northeast TN and southwest VA to 0.5-1 inches across the northern Tennessee Valley to a few tenths south of I-40. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)... As the first snow maker leaves the area tonight, a second system starts to wind up in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Models have been consistently showing this system for the last several days, but location is everything, and that is where the models have been a bit more inconsistent with it. ECMWF has been fairly steady over the last several days with sfc low moving along the northern Gulf coast Friday and moving off the SE coast Friday night. GFS and NAM have also been depicting low in the northern Gulf, but the track has been a bit further south. Models coming a bit more in line this morning on the track which brings wintery precipitation right to our eastern and southern doorsteps. Presently there is consensus among the SREF, GFS, ECMWF, and NAM that snow will be primarily confined to the extreme eastern portion of the area and southwest North Carolina. Similarly, snowfall totals look to be on the order of 1-2 inches in northeast Tennessee increasing to 2-3 inches over the southern third of this area. Going back to the fact that location is everything, a slight change in the surface low track could have significant implications on snowfall in our area. A bit further south and the area in northeast Tennessee would see nearly nothing, a bit further north and portions of the East Tennessee Valley could see some accumulations overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Certainly need to keep a close watch on the model handling of this system over the next run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 06 GFS has put valley back in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here's the latest disco from MRX: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 355 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)... Clouds will increase across the forecast area this morning, ahead of a clipper system that will push through the area this evening through Friday morning. High temperatures today will reach the upper 30s across the Cumberland Plateau and southwest Virginia, the lower 40s across the Tennessee Valley, and the mid 40s near the TN/GA line before colder air rushes in behind the arctic front. Rain showers will change over to snow this evening across the northern Plateau and Cumberland Mountains, then snow showers will spread further south overnight. With overnight lows in the 20s, snow will accumulate and cause some travel difficulties -- especially on untreated roadways. Total snowfall through Friday morning will range from 1-3 inches (with locally higher amounts) across northeast TN and southwest VA to 0.5-1 inches across the northern Tennessee Valley to a few tenths south of I-40. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)... As the first snow maker leaves the area tonight, a second system starts to wind up in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Models have been consistently showing this system for the last several days, but location is everything, and that is where the models have been a bit more inconsistent with it. ECMWF has been fairly steady over the last several days with sfc low moving along the northern Gulf coast Friday and moving off the SE coast Friday night. GFS and NAM have also been depicting low in the northern Gulf, but the track has been a bit further south. Models coming a bit more in line this morning on the track which brings wintery precipitation right to our eastern and southern doorsteps. Presently there is consensus among the SREF, GFS, ECMWF, and NAM that snow will be primarily confined to the extreme eastern portion of the area and southwest North Carolina. Similarly, snowfall totals look to be on the order of 1-2 inches in northeast Tennessee increasing to 2-3 inches over the southern third of this area. [B]Going back to the fact that location is everything, a slight change in the surface low track could have significant implications on snowfall in our area. A bit further south and the area in northeast Tennessee would see nearly nothing, a bit further north and portions of the East Tennessee Valley could see some accumulations overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Certainly need to keep a close watch on the model handling of this system over the next run or two.[/B] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Them 06z giving valley snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow, looking at radar it appears it could already be snowing in NW TN? Any obs out that way? Even have virga covering a good chunk of the state right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 06 GFS has put valley back in playMy head hurtsSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 06 GFS has put valley back in play Is it just me or do they continue to push the storm track to the NW? Seems like that pocket in southeastern Arkansas was much further south yesterday. Central Oklahoma seems in line for more snow on the newer maps now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claycochaser Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Is it just me or do they continue to push the storm track to the NW? Seems like that pocket in southeastern Arkansas was much further south yesterday. Central Oklahoma seems in line for more snow on the newer maps now as well. Not really the storm track that is changing. The increase to the North and West is due to stronger frontogenic convergence with a piece of Upper Level energy in the flow. The Two main areas of Snow are associated with 2 different forcing mechanisms, in other words . .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 gefs snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Man at this sunrise Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Same with the sunrise. Hopefully it brings snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pea Ridge Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 X3 on the sunrise. Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Man at this sunrise Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Saw that myself this morning over English Mountain going to work. Absolutely beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 06z NAM was more robust too, especially for the eastern areas, 6+ along the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 06z NAM was more robust too, especially for the eastern areas, 6+ along the border.John is it snowing at your place yet? There was snow on the radar over head and I was wondering if it was reaching ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 With the gradient of snow being so tight with the system(s), it's going to be very interesting to watch it unfold. The west end of the valley could see around an inch or less, while areas just 50 miles further east could see 3+ per the GFS & now the NAM. Meaning, if you aren't seeing snow in your area, you might not have to drive far to see a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 So it seems this first wave is ahead of schedule. Would less interaction with the 2nd wave help it not get sheared or strung out?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 High resolution 6z para NAM. Better resolution means it "sees" the mountains a bit better. I have found this model to be low on the qpf side when I have used it before...but generally the lower resolution NAM models tend to overestimate snowfall in NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 John, do you want an obs thread just for this storm or just put them in the normal obs thread? Looks like decent returns on RadarScope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Interestingly, the SE forum sees some evidence for the trailing waving digging a bit more. That would expand the precip shield northward and westward a bit. Prob what the 6z GFS was doing. 12z global suite might be the last run for global models before the short range models take over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 looks like main storm might be trending north looking at this map 12 nam but less moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 looks like main storm might be trending north looking at this map 12 namThat's interesting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 it is more north but not the moisture we need hope its just nam being lower on moisture then there is. its got nc in the 40's at hour 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bamajen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Knoxville TV graphics show up to 6 inches, but the models are confusing.. We are in Wears Valley, at the foot of Cove Mountain.. Would that apply in this area as well?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Man guys check out the NAM! It explodes in the next few frames. Precip shield expands big time to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 now snow growing in east tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: now snow growing in east tn That looks like it's laying it down pretty good right there over almost all of E TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.