JayCee Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wurbus said: NAM-3K sets up a nice snow band across East TN and the mountains. The low is also north of the 18z run. That pic reminds me of the storm that shut down Atlanta and Birmingham a few years back. Several days before the storm, it looked like it would miss East TN. Then the day before, models starting picking up on a band of snow over East TN separate from the main band to our south--and it verified. We got about 3 inches of very dry powder out of it here. And, again, that pic looks amazingly like the radar did during that snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 About 1 inch tops in extreme NE TN and close to Kentucky border on the 1st wave with the 0z RGEM. Not much with the second wave out to hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 0z RGEM 48 hour snow total: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Snowfall, 500 mb vort, and precip at the end of the RGEM run at hour 48. Tough to tell how the run would of finished but the precip field was really far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 TN misses the first wave on the 0z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hour 48 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Last run was just a tease this run TN gets nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hour 60 has a beautiful storm for the Carolinas but a swing and a miss for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 If that unfolds it'll be historic. Atlanta almost never exceeds 3 inches of snow. 1st time since 1973 a storm tracked that far south with the current NAO/AO configuration. Basically a 1 in 50 year type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: If that unfolds it'll be historic. Atlanta almost never exceeds 3 inches of snow. 1st time since 1973 a storm tracked that far south with the current NAO/AO configuration. Basically a 1 in 50 year type event. GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: FTY LAT= 33.77 LON= -84.52 ELE= 840 00Z JAN05 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) THU 00Z 05-JAN 41.7 34.7 32005 THU 06Z 05-JAN 41.8 35.2 35.2 29.1 34004 0.00 100 THU 12Z 05-JAN 35.1 31.2 31.5 23.9 06001 0.00 21 THU 18Z 05-JAN 50.5 31.7 50.5 37.7 20005 0.00 33 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 51.9 41.0 40.9 34.8 29004 0.00 37 FRI 06Z 06-JAN 40.9 35.5 35.4 29.1 31006 0.00 69 FRI 12Z 06-JAN 35.5 29.6 29.6 24.3 32006 0.00 86 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 39.0 29.3 39.0 27.0 33007 0.00 78 SAT 00Z 07-JAN 40.3 32.9 33.0 26.7 33008 SN 0.01 87 SAT 06Z 07-JAN 32.8 27.7 27.7 26.4 33007 SN 0.32 100 SAT 12Z 07-JAN 27.6 22.8 22.8 20.4 33009 SN 0.13 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 About to throw in the towel here in Chattanooga. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Considering high ratios, I'd say my backyard got about a dusting off that GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 It may prove to be correct but the GFS is pretty far off the other models regarding the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Gotta think we're all still in for some adjustments come tomorrow. Should make things interesting as the day unfolds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Gotta think we're all still in for some adjustments come tomorrow. Should make things interesting as the day unfolds! There will be adjustments for sure and possibly some surprises. Euro will be interesting tonight. Then we're in hi-res nam/rgem/sref/hrrr territory with some wrf loops thrown in for good measure. Best part of winter! (even if it doesn't pan out for the backyard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The 0z German? Sure why not: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 0z Ukie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm about to get dramatic here. But why is it the Bham always ends up dry? Please someone calm me down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 let's see here on the 0z German, Latitude 37N, 82W in this almost idealistic model run in my case I am in the third tier of green on the key. Considering I'm within the center of it I can use the median of 17.5mm of precip which translates to 0.68 in of rain then if I assume a snow ratio for this instance let's say 12:1 then if my calculations are correct I get a grand total of 8.16 inches of snow which is pretty great! (did I do it right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Touchet said: I'm about to get dramatic here. But why is it the Bham always ends up dry? Please someone calm me down. Unfortunately the storm develops late and that's why it's good for Atlanta and East of there. The only chance western areas have are if there's earlier development in the Gulf. That said, Birmingham is in a decent spot and models often under perform moisture with gulf systems. So don't give up hope yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: 0z Ukie: The total qpf from the UKIE is probably. .15 to .40 from the Plateau to the mountains. The German model is the one I mistaken called French earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Even with the rest of the forum struggling, SWVa and the NC border counties look pretty good still. 2-5 inches even in lower elevations look possible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 *sigh* Guess I gotta see what the Doc has in store for us tonight. Any guesses John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hmm seems this is gonna be something not nailed down until the actual event. Gonna see what Euro says, hopefully a nice hit for the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 0z euro qpf...first wave 40 north only for 2 frames. 3 frames worth of 2nd wave lay down a smidgen of qpf for ETN. Overall meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Thanks Reb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 0z Euro. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro is probably 75 miles N/W of its 12z run but does nothing for us precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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