Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: The 06z Para just rolled out and it quite a bit further north than the GFS or it's prior runs. Still doesn't get us much except 1 inch or so in the initial wave. Until this is all of the way on the US mainland and that weather data is included, I will still be watching. Not great model trends with 48 hrs to go...which usually equals poor results in reality. I am not saying this to provide false hope or wishcast. More than once, we have seen a Pacific storm get to the mainland and the storm either vanishes or trends our way. The models do look pretty well consolidated in their track now though. And that track is one that splits the forum area. No denying that. Those are the breaks sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Of course we will still be watching! It's what we do! Even with slightly different evolutions, the solutions are fairly similar except for maybe ATL....We are in close enough now where it is harder to see a significant change...of course, a minor change could still lead to an inch or two and I would be satisfied with that in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I need juuuuust enough snow to build some RC truck ramps in the back yard. Two inches would work for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: Of course we will still be watching! It's what we do! Even with slightly different evolutions, the solutions are fairly similar except for maybe ATL....We are in close enough now where it is harder to see a significant change...of course, a minor change could still lead to an inch or two and I would be satisfied with that in this pattern. Yep. I hear you. I bailed too early last year on one, so I will ride this dying horse to 0z. And hey, good to see you posting more, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Was it 2 years ago when the valley was in line for big snow but 24-48 hours out the mods made big swings and most got sleet and RZ with some snow?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 For what its worth, winter weather advisories just went up in KY From NWS Jackson KY Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 230 PM EST WED JAN 4 2017 ...A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... .THE FIRST WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON WILL COME TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER. WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED. THIS SNOW COULD RESULT IN NEGATIVE TRAVEL IMPACTS TO MOTORISTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIMES. KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114-050400- /O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0001.170105T1500Z-170106T1300Z/ ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON- WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-LEE-BREATHITT-OWSLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY... STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE... ANNVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...BOONEVILLE 230 PM EST WED JAN 4 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY. * EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON EST THURSDAY AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY. * THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM THURSDAY. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. * PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. $$ Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 329 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-042200- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE... JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD... MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN... ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 329 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 ...First Accumulating Snow of the Season Expected Thursday and Thursday night... Confidence is increasing that the first widespread accumulating snow of the season will come to eastern Kentucky Thursday and Thursday night. At this time, 1 to 3 inches of snow is forecast. This snow could result in negative travel impacts to motorists, especially during the Thursday evening and Friday morning commute times. Please stay tuned to the latest forecast. $$ KAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Thoughts?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 At 21 hrs on the nam 18z the first wave looks stronger then before it needs to sag about 50 miles south to get whole state. It's giving us in east tn rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: At 21 hrs on the nam 18z the first wave looks stronger then before it needs to sag about 50 miles south to get whole state. It's giving us in east tn rain Still rain at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 vintage warm biased nam. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Change over at 30 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: At 21 hrs on the nam 18z the first wave looks stronger then before it needs to sag about 50 miles south to get whole state. It's giving us in east tn rain Got to take NAM Composite Reflectivity with a grain of salt, it generally paints a lot more precip than what is typically actual. I tend not to trust NAM in general on qpf, but just look at it for trends against itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Per Tropical, we have no precip at all on hour 24 of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 MRX disco from a few minutes ago not showing much love for the valley, and just a wink and a tease for the rest... Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee 320 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 Short term /tonight and Thursday/... drier air quickly moving into the region this afternoon, creating a mostly clear sky overnight. This will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s over much of the region due to the good radiational cooling. Some mid to high clouds will move in late tonight into Thursday morning ahead of an Arctic front that is progged to move east into the region late Thursday afternoon and evening. Some peaks of sunshine will allow highs to warm into the 40s ahead of this boundary, but colder air will quickly filter in behind it. Latest forecast has the boundary pushing into the northern plateau and Cumberland mountains between 18-21z, quickly changing any light rain with it to snow for the evening commute. This trend will continue into the evening hours and after sunset as these broad areas of snow will overspread the area. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the northern plateau and Cumberland mtns from 21z Thursday to 12z Friday and across much of the rest of the area from 00-12z (addressed below). Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/... a clipper system will dive southeast from the northern plains tonight and will be cross the southern appalachian region Thursday night into Friday morning. This is a fast moving upper trough but should have enough sub-freezing air and enough moisture to produce some accumulating snow across much of the mrx forecast area. Typically greater snowfall accumulation is expected on the higher terrain features including the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the mountains along the Tennessee and North Carolina border. In these areas, snowfall totals should be at least one to two inches, although some of the higher terrain across southwest Virginia could pick up two to four inches. Would expect amounts around one inch in the Tri-Cities area by daybreak Friday with totals around one half to one inch across the Great Valley from around Knoxville northeast into the Tri-Cities region. Of course, this would cause some travel difficulties with overnight snowfall and temperatures dropping into the 20s. Although the deeper moisture and lift would be exiting early in the day Friday, enough lower level moist air and cold air advection should be in place to keep some light snow or flurries going through mid day. The next system that will have a minor impact on our forecast area will be a short wave driving east through the lower Mississippi Valley Friday night and across the southeast Atlantic coastal states by Saturday morning. The forecast ideology utilized a compromise between the weaker and farther east GFS and the stronger European model (ecmwf) which features a deepening surface low much closer to the southeast Atlantic coast. In this scenario, most of the deep moisture and short wave lift will be south and east of the mrx forecast area. Thus, used a thin stripe of pops aligned along the far east Tennessee mountains with the highest probabilities at 50 percent for light snow on the mountain terrain. This system moves out quickly with skies clearing by Saturday afternoon. A dry regime persists for a rather lengthy period behind the departing storm system. The forecast area should enjoy more sun than clouds from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. However, it will be very cold with a northerly flow pulling Arctic air into the region well into Monday. Highs will not make it above freezing for most of the area through the weekend, but will recover to at least the mid to upper 30s on Monday. Another upper trough and surface frontal system will be pressing into the eastern U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday which should help boost high temperatures back into the 40s on Tuesday and lower to middle 50s on Wednesday. Of course, more rain will be in the forecast during this final part of the extended as it is lifted ahead of the system cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 18z NAM total snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Well, the AFD didn't sound too enthused, but MRX just came out with a WWA. Might be awhile before we see another one of these. Hope we can get a little something with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 We are under a winter weather advisory for 1"? I realize the roads could get bad, and that is why it was issued. But I thought there were criteria in terms of snow for it to be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 The EPS was more robust than the OP. It has a much larger area of 2 inches + than the OP which confined it to far eastern areas. The OP may have been on the southern/eastern edge of its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We are under a winter weather advisory for 1"? I realize the roads could get bad, and that is why it was issued. But I thought there were criteria in terms of snow for it to be issued. 1 inch in 12 hours qualifies for the MRX cwa. It's any 1-3 amount in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 What's devastating is we're going to have 3 1/2 to 4 days below freezing and nothing to show for it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yeah I was thinking 1-3 was advisory. It's on the low end though and may not verify in a lot of places. Better to be safe than sorry I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: 1 inch in 12 hours qualifies for the MRX cwa. It's any 1-3 amount in 12 hours. Ah. I feel certain they are not adhering to that up here consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, PowellVolz said: What's devastating is we're going to have 3 1/2 to 4 days below freezing and nothing to show for it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Most likely the last 3 or 4 for several weeks to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: What's devastating is we're going to have 3 1/2 to 4 days below freezing and nothing to show for it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I know, right. Too bad the perfect elusive run of the GFS from 12z yesterday won't verify in this case bc if it did, all of us would be living the dream huh. Jan 88 redu! One day I suppose it will. Hopefully, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jed33 said: Yeah I was thinking 1-3 was advisory. It's on the low end though and may not verify in a lot of places. Better to be safe than sorry I guess. Yeah, won't take much to make the road a mess. The 18z RGEM has is supporting 1-2" and some of that might include getting clipped by the second wave...edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NWS Birmingham has issued a Winter Storm Watch for central Alabama (yes, I am jealous): Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 310 PM CST WED JAN 4 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA... .A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME, A WEAK GULF SYSTEM WILL FORM SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS IT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA PARTNERS FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALZ015-017>021-023>028-034-051215- /O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.170106T1200Z-170107T1500Z/ WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-TUSCALOOSA- JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-BIBB- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JASPER...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE... HEFLIN...TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...PELL CITY...MOODY... TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND 310 PM CST WED JAN 4 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * EVENT...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. * TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * LOCATION...LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY BETWEEN THE I59 AND I20 CORRIDORS IN THE WATCH AREA. SOME SLEET IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I85 CORRIDOR. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH ZONES FROM THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA, EAST AND NORTHEAST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTHER OUTLYING AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE METRO. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ALZ026&warncounty=ALC115&firewxzone=ALZ026&local_place1=3 Miles NE Ashville AL&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=33.8607&lon=-86.2185#.WG1p6HpMFSA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Cool. The first WSW of the season and is in the very southern reaches of our forum area. I hope they get every bit of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Northward trend on the GFS that time for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 18z GFS NW of 12z. Snowing over the far eastern valley. GFS has been blanking Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yep it's moving north west with the snow just need a little more move next run same direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.