jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: What time was that put together? Posted the link,reckon it got deleted http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I don't think there's any reason to have faith in any of the mods right now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 GaWx did some research on Lows taking the path the GFS shows and found it happened about once every 10 years since 1950 in winter. Last time was Feb 2010. It only happened one time with a +AO/NAO which I believe we have now. So if the GFS verifies, we're seeing something incredibly uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Posted the link,reckon it got deleted http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd So that post earlier was the first low. The second low to traverse the SE coast has the UKMET included as the blend which I found interesting since it is a stronger solution. Good read for those following the storm. Discusses each piece of energy... Which 12z Euro are they using...do they get an earlier version? (Edit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: Do you have a reason not to? The Op GFS has been very consistent and is supported by its ensembles...you have to consider it as a possible solution at this point. Its just there are so many differnt pieces all at once and even after the storm has went on shore it hasnt changed one bit and if you remember a few days ago it was giving tn a foot of snow i just think it will be a little more north and more moisture just a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: So that post earlier was the first low. The second low to traverse the SE coast has the UKMET included as the blend which I found interesting since it is a stronger solution. Good read for those following the storm. Discusses each piece of energy... Which 12z Euro are they using...do they get an earlier version? (Edit) If you look at models they used in the disco, they reference the 00z Euro ens below each one for their blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Here an animated clown of the last 7 GFS runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: If you look at models they used in the disco, they reference the 00z Euro ens below each one for their blend. I may not be following you...they mention the 12z Euro in those comments. I am just wondering if they get it first, but they definitely mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I may not be following you...they mention the 12z Euro in those comments. I am just wondering if they get it first, but they definitely mention it. They say that in the one section of comments, but below each block they say which models they used for the blend. It says 00z Euro Ens there and mentions 12z runs of the other models then. I don't think the 12z Euro was available 2 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Quote PREFERENCE: 00Z ECENS MEAN (12Z NAM/00Z UKMET COMPROMISE) CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE This is what I'm referring to, I think they may have mistakenly mentioned 12z Euro since they mention it no where else in the entire page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, John1122 said: They say that in the one section of comments, but below each block they say which models they used for the blend. It says 00z Euro Ens there and mentions 12z runs of the other models then. I don't think the 12z Euro was available 2 hours ago. I am thinking it is a typo. Yeah, I saw the rest of the comments. I was just confused or wondering if they used yesterday's....or they get it early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: I am thinking it is a typo. Yeah, I saw the rest of the comments. I was just confused or wondering if they used yesterday's....or they get it early. euro 12z is running right now out to 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 We might be saying, all hail the GFS after the euro gets to hour 84. Looks flatter, more progressive..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 so our only hope is the cold front dont sag as far south when it gets here and the low can come north some more sound about right. or we have no chance in east tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: We might be saying, all hail the GFS after the euro gets to hour 84. Looks flatter, more progressive..... Is it similar to the Ukie with a 1-3 inch kind of deal in east TN, or worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 That one kinda took everyone out of the game except the far east areas where 1-2 inches might happen. Tough to see the Euro fold, but that's the breaks I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z JAN04 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) WED 12Z 04-JAN 43.9 38.3 33008 0.00 0.00 96 WED 18Z 04-JAN 44.0 40.4 44.0 25.5 34008 0.00 0.00 83 THU 00Z 05-JAN 44.7 37.2 37.1 18.5 34006 0.00 0.00 94 THU 06Z 05-JAN 37.1 30.8 30.7 17.4 03004 0.00 0.00 19 THU 12Z 05-JAN 30.9 28.8 30.5 18.3 04003 0.00 0.00 98 THU 18Z 05-JAN 44.6 30.5 44.9 21.7 22003 0.00 0.00 82 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 46.2 40.0 40.1 25.2 33004 0.00 0.00 96 FRI 06Z 06-JAN 40.1 33.0 32.9 23.8 00005 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 06-JAN 32.9 29.8 29.8 20.5 00005 0.01 0.01 99 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 32.8 29.5 32.3 20.3 00007 0.00 0.00 99 SAT 00Z 07-JAN 32.5 28.6 28.6 19.2 02008 0.01 0.01 98 SAT 06Z 07-JAN 28.6 25.6 25.5 13.1 02007 0.00 0.00 86 SAT 12Z 07-JAN 25.8 24.5 24.5 8.3 01008 0.01 0.01 93 SAT 18Z 07-JAN 30.3 23.8 30.4 6.7 00009 0.01 0.01 24 SUN 00Z 08-JAN 33.3 26.5 26.4 4.1 34007 0.00 0.00 0 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z JAN04 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) WED 12Z 04-JAN 42.5 39.1 32008 0.00 0.00 99 WED 18Z 04-JAN 42.5 40.1 41.0 26.6 33007 0.00 0.00 91 THU 00Z 05-JAN 42.5 34.2 34.0 17.1 34004 0.00 0.00 45 THU 06Z 05-JAN 33.9 28.0 28.0 15.6 07003 0.00 0.00 47 THU 12Z 05-JAN 29.5 27.3 29.5 17.1 02003 0.00 0.00 98 THU 18Z 05-JAN 36.9 29.5 36.8 18.5 36002 0.00 0.00 98 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 37.9 34.7 34.6 24.8 04003 0.01 0.01 100 FRI 06Z 06-JAN 34.6 30.5 30.4 24.4 01003 0.03 0.03 100 FRI 12Z 06-JAN 30.4 26.8 26.7 19.6 02004 0.01 0.01 96 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 30.0 25.7 29.1 18.8 00004 0.01 0.01 100 SAT 00Z 07-JAN 29.3 26.1 26.1 17.2 02006 0.04 0.04 98 SAT 06Z 07-JAN 26.1 23.6 23.6 12.3 02006 0.01 0.01 78 SAT 12Z 07-JAN 23.7 21.7 21.7 7.5 01008 0.01 0.01 94 SAT 18Z 07-JAN 25.0 21.1 25.1 7.3 01007 0.04 0.04 95 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z JAN04 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) WED 12Z 04-JAN 43.9 40.9 30010 0.00 0.00 99 WED 18Z 04-JAN 43.9 39.5 39.7 27.5 30009 0.01 0.00 65 THU 00Z 05-JAN 41.3 32.7 32.4 12.9 30006 0.00 0.00 5 THU 06Z 05-JAN 32.4 25.3 25.2 12.2 26004 0.00 0.00 41 THU 12Z 05-JAN 26.2 24.9 26.1 14.3 03002 0.00 0.00 100 THU 18Z 05-JAN 37.3 26.1 37.4 12.5 34002 0.00 0.00 98 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 38.3 31.6 31.4 23.3 28002 0.03 0.03 100 FRI 06Z 06-JAN 31.4 29.4 29.3 24.6 28004 0.06 0.06 98 FRI 12Z 06-JAN 29.3 26.4 26.4 19.1 34003 0.01 0.01 89 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 30.3 25.5 29.7 18.0 30003 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 07-JAN 29.7 25.3 25.2 16.1 02005 0.07 0.07 100 SAT 06Z 07-JAN 25.2 21.2 21.2 10.7 03006 0.01 0.01 99 SAT 12Z 07-JAN 21.5 20.3 20.3 6.3 01007 0.02 0.02 93 SAT 18Z 07-JAN 23.8 19.5 23.7 4.0 35005 0.04 0.04 98 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN04 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) WED 12Z 04-JAN 33.5 24.3 33008 0.00 0.00 73 WED 18Z 04-JAN 35.8 30.1 36.0 15.7 34007 0.00 0.00 66 THU 00Z 05-JAN 37.7 31.6 31.4 16.1 35005 0.00 0.00 10 THU 06Z 05-JAN 31.4 26.1 26.0 14.8 04004 0.00 0.00 41 THU 12Z 05-JAN 27.8 24.9 27.8 13.2 03005 0.00 0.00 99 THU 18Z 05-JAN 31.3 27.8 31.3 16.4 01003 0.01 0.01 99 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 31.9 29.9 29.8 18.4 35005 0.01 0.01 100 FRI 06Z 06-JAN 29.9 26.0 25.9 17.0 36006 0.01 0.01 97 FRI 12Z 06-JAN 25.9 21.9 21.9 12.2 36007 0.00 0.00 94 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 24.2 21.6 24.3 9.3 00006 0.03 0.03 100 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z JAN04 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) WED 12Z 04-JAN 33.7 23.8 35009 0.00 0.00 82 WED 18Z 04-JAN 36.0 31.7 36.2 16.4 01010 0.00 0.00 96 THU 00Z 05-JAN 38.4 33.4 33.2 18.7 02004 0.00 0.00 71 THU 06Z 05-JAN 33.2 29.7 29.7 15.5 07005 0.00 0.00 54 THU 12Z 05-JAN 29.7 27.8 29.6 17.6 05004 0.00 0.00 98 THU 18Z 05-JAN 36.3 29.6 36.4 20.9 02005 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 06-JAN 36.6 33.8 33.8 18.8 02008 0.00 0.00 99 FRI 06Z 06-JAN 33.8 29.5 29.4 17.6 02010 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 06-JAN 29.4 24.9 24.9 12.9 01010 0.01 0.01 100 FRI 18Z 06-JAN 26.4 23.8 26.5 13.7 02009 0.09 0.09 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So you're saying I shouldn't put the chains on my truck tires just yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Well, I'm about ready to put a fork in this weekend's storm for East Tennessee. Just looks like everything will be to the south and east of us. Hopefully, we can squeeze out 1-2 inches tomorrow night when the first system rolls through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Stovepipe said: So you're saying I shouldn't put the chains on my truck tires just yet? If you go out west you might need them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Is it similar to the Ukie with a 1-3 inch kind of deal in east TN, or worse? European snowfall map looks like a big pile of dog poop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, tnweathernut said: European snowfall map looks like a big pile of dog poop I'm wondering why that doesn't show much snow up in Kentucky? The GFS shows more with the first wave, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hope for an inch, it will likely be the only chance we have at one until late month at best. Looks like this is going to be one of those 2000s weak Nina winters rather than a 1980s or 1990s weak Nina winter. Figured a bust might be in the offing after having 3 straight great ones. But we've still got a long way to go this year and maybe will have our 4th great February in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 https://66.media.tumblr.com/06d26dbd10229bed754847839992e028/tumblr_o35r9eP1iv1s8l6bpo1_400.gifSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I think all the models are just struggling with were to put this storm track and how to decipher through the multiple waves of the storm that will come through. We have seen every possible scenario so far and nothing has been consistent for more than a day or so. I think once the snow actually starts to fall there will be many surprises. I think back to the 2016 storm in February that everyone and the models said would produce a huge snow. It ended up being a gigantic bust but the models never saw it coming. That's why I think we all still have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 The 06z Para just rolled out and it quite a bit further north than the GFS or it's prior runs. Still doesn't get us much except 1 inch or so in the initial wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Fort Collins is getting a little accumulation now. It's the start of a big storm! We have pretty small snowflakes. NWS Boulder now has the winter storm warning headline for the metro areas, out east of DIA, and east of Greeley. I am wondering now if the rest of the plains would require a winter weather advisory. This was just posted by Chinook in the Mountain West Thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: European snowfall map looks like a big pile of dog poop Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Meh, Euro still gives my area a few inches. Event isn't completely over yet, if you remember last year areas north of that big blizzard weren't expected to get snow until like the day of the event. It is also possible the system still shifts north a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nebraska to KC through STL (and now Kentucky) have posted winter wx advisories for what is the Thursday afternoon event Upper Plateau to Northeast Tenn. Problem here is the wave weakens on the way to our region under influence of some upper level confluence over the Great Lakes. I know it's billiard ball meteorology, but the wave will weaken on its way here. (KY will do better) Above Thursday wave is in California already. Friday wave is still offshore, but I would not expect big forecast changes. Still hope for about another 24 hr of modeling, but don't hold your breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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