Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I think it is fair to say that not having one of the major models in line is concerning. However, the GFS is known for suppression. Here is the 12z 3K para NAM. You can see the three systems. One has already exited the area and is in the Atlantic. Makes it very difficult to model. Plenty of moving pieces. It is a possibility this does the splits. I don't want to wishcast. But it is not a matter of proving a point...it is about figuring things out. But the para below shows how tough it is for a model to put these moving pieces together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: I think it is fair to say that not having one of the major models in line is concerning. However, the GFS is known for suppression. Here is the 12z 3K para NAM. You can see the three systems. One has already exited the area and is in the Atlantic. Makes it very difficult to model. Plenty of moving pieces. It is a possibility this does the splits. I don't want to wishcast. But it is not a matter of proving a point...it is about figuring things out. But the para below shows how tough it is for a model to put these moving pieces together. Yea there definitely are a lot of moving pieces, It's going to be fun to see how it all Plans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Yea there definitely are a lot of moving pieces, It's going to be fun to see how it all Plans out. And that is what makes this a great hobby. Even when a system "fails" there is plenty of opportunity to learn - not saying this one fails. Great forum to learn on as well...plenty of great folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I guess it's the GFS giving us nothing verses the EURO giving us something. Go EURO Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Should see something less surpressed on the GEM,maybe it will be kind to you people out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Haven't seen the clowns yet but 12z CMC looks like a widespread light event for much of the great valley. Edit: Here's the 10:1 clown from the SE forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Honestly, its like the GFS is stuck on itself--and its own solution. It even keeps the first band to our north in KY. Most other models have that coming into Mid-East TN as well now, I thought. So, it's almost an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 No major shifts. The 12z CMC is a bit slower and a bit more north in the GOM @54. Amazingly, pretty much the same strength as 0z. It is also slightly NW of its 0z run. The first piece of energy has less qpf than 0z. The precip shield on the trailing system has a bigger precip shield than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: at 48 snow in west tn on cmc but at 54 system is moisture starved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 CMC...FWIW, convection along the GOM slp may have cut the moisture from the northern extent between 48-54. If that is no there...prob a better fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 MrWolf, is that a warm nose starting to appear in the valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The 500mb feature on the 12z GEM in the northwest is just about over NA. Let's see if this does not cause a shift. I am not sure when the newer model data(once it is over land) gets ingested - maybe 0z tonight. IMO, it will get sampled much better now that it is over the US. Certainly, the data from the energy now coming on board in CA will sharpen the focus...my guess would be 18z or 0z. Feel free to add... This is for the timeframe 0z...i.e. the beginning of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, ladyjmayo said: MrWolf, is that a warm nose starting to appear in the valley? its were the model has no moisture no warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, ladyjmayo said: MrWolf, is that a warm nose starting to appear in the valley? Looked to me to be precip starved...missed on the first wave and the trailing system ran out of gas so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: its were the model has no moisture no warm nose I'd say that's a bit of downsloping off of the Plateau to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 jma run 12z 48 hours and 72 big moisure up take most south of us tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z GEFS mean precip: Anybody have the individual GEFS members map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 ukie 12 z precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: ukie 12 z precip map Ukie is Metric in it qpf output correct? Looks nice either way just to see a slug of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 ukie 12 z precip map Cash out?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Anybody have the individual GEFS members map? All I can see is the mean out to hour 96 which has exactly jack squat from Memphis to Nashville. The mean is 1-2" for most of east TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Coach B said: All I can see is the mean out to hour 96 which has exactly jack squat from Memphis to Nashville. The mean is 1-2" for most of east TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z GEFS members from SE forum: Why pay for WeatherBell when I can just copy/pasta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: 12z GEFS members from SE forum: Why pay for WeatherBell when I can just copy/pasta? i dont have much trust in the gefs and gfs runs anyone else think its missing somthing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Tried to C&P directly off WPC but it wouldn't let me from the link above,so went another route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: i dont have much trust in the gefs and gfs runs anyone else think its missing somthing. Do you have a reason not to? The Op GFS has been very consistent and is supported by its ensembles...you have to consider it as a possible solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looking back at the threat I accidentally placed in banter, it was 00z before the main storm arrived that saw the GFS make it's proper adjustment, it was 12 hours before when the NAM really got on board. RGEM did the best in the short range. Euro did the best overall. The GFS and NAM kept developing the wave in the GOM too late for our area and thus the precip shield was always to our east. Just have to wait and see if this is a repeat of the GFS/NAM are right vs the foreign models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: i dont have much trust in the gefs and gfs runs anyone else think its missing somthing. Yeah I don't have much faith in either of them. I think with so much still to happen its hard to believe anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Tried to C&P directly off WPC but it wouldn't let me from the link above,so went another route What time was that put together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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