JayCee Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Starting to feel a bit more optimism for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, JayCee said: Starting to feel a bit more optimism for my area. Amazing that we are within a couple of days of an event and we really do not know any more than if this were occurring back in the 1960's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Great disco folks! MRX has released a SWS for all of east TN and parts of SW VA for the event. That seems reasonable given the recent (and usual) model fluctuations. Still time to adjust as needed. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 432 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-041745- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington- Including the cities of...Murphy...Hayesville...Oneida... La Follette...Tazewell...Sneedville...Rogersville...Kingsport... Bristol...Mountain City...Wartburg...Clinton...Oak Ridge... Maynardville...Rutledge...Morristown...Newport...Cosby... Greeneville...Cedar Creek...Johnson City...Erwin...Elizabethton... Roan Mountain...Kingston...Lenoir City...Knoxville...Dandridge... Maryville...Cades Cove...Sevierville...Gatlinburg...Dunlap... Pikeville...Dayton...Decatur...Athens...Madisonville... Coker Creek...Jasper...Chattanooga...Cleveland...Benton... Ducktown...Jonesville...Wise...Norton...Gate City...Lebanon... Abingdon 432 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 /332 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2017/ ...Winter Weather Expected Across The Area Thursday Evening Through Friday... An arctic airmass will move into the area Thursday evening ushering in some accumulating snow and much colder temperatures. Starting Thursday evening and ending Friday night, areas of southwest Virginia and higher elevations of northeast Tennessee could expect to see snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Elsewhere across the area north of I-40 totals of 1-2 inches are possible while southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina will likely see only a dusting to 1 inch of snow. This SWS is enough to warn the masses and not send most of them into a panic. However if you're going to a grocery store within the next 48 hours, it might not seem that way! Thanks to Carver's, John, Jax, Mr Bob, Jeff and all y'all for the great posts on this system! Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 hours ago, John1122 said: This was last nights 15:1 That is promising, looks real good for everyone east of Lebanon. Now if we can get that blue to extend into west Tennessee all the way then I will be really happy. Overall, it does look better for us all this morning though,. That is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claycochaser Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: That is promising, looks real good for everyone east of Lebanon. Now if we can get that blue to extend into west Tennessee all the way then I will be really happy. Overall, it does look better for us all this morning though,. That is promising. That's not the latest run I don't believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 One thing I noticed from the 0z euro was an uptick in individual members that have 6+ for parts of east TN. More members don't look like the OP at this point so still a TON of uncertainty, but the mean is 1.5 to 2.5 across a good chunk of the state, less west and more the further east you go. At least many are still in the "game".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 EPS yesterday and today Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nice discussion lately folks! I've been occupied with other things but have been lurking. I think this is shaping up to be a decent event for a chunk of the subforum. 12z might tell the tale. Current SREF mean is at 2 inches for TYS. It's nice to see that EPS mean beefing up for east TN. Canadian is rocking, just need the stubborn GFS to ease our way. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just speculation based on the early hours of the 12z Nam, but I think we are going to see better trends throughout the 12z suite... Stove, Great to see you and others posting again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Just speculation based on the early hours of the 12z Nam, but I think we are going to see better trends throughout the 12z suite... Stove, Great to see you and others posting again! Just curious but Do you think it will trend better statewide?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z NAM at hour 45 showing a first wave thump. Nothing major but that wasn't there previously. Edit: Correction, 6z had it but previous runs did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Just curious but Do you think it will trend better statewide?? The biggest problem for West Tennessee is the first wave looks to mostly miss north and east and the second wave looks to be a late bloomer, if at all. That would also largely be a miss for West Tennessee. That said, weather will do what weather wants to do. Let's see what clues 12Z gives us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: 12z NAM at hour 45 showing a first wave thump. Nothing major but that wasn't there previously. Edit: Correction, 6z had it but previous runs did not. Need the first wave to overachieve here in Middle TN. Dusting to 1" would at least get me on the board. I think weekend system will still come back north a little more but it doesn't really look to get going until it's east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Shoot these models will be changing all day, By the end of the Day it will look completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Shoot these models will be changing all day, By the end of the Day it will look completely different.I don't think it will look a lot different. I do believe the NAM is under doing the precip and I strongly believe all will continue to inch to the NW with each run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hope we can score because it looks to be at least a couple of weeks before any chance at cold enough temps. Gotta have cold temps first. Problem then is ground will be above freezing again. Rinse & repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Shoot these models will be changing all day, By the end of the Day it will look completely different. I really think the last chance for bigger changes occurs with 12Z, and even that is a Hail Mary .....hoping the shortwave isn't being sampled properly. The writing is pretty much on the wall, but small differences from here on out mean everything. In reality , The higher bust potential is with East Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I could live with a NW trend, LOL. When I said different I did not mean it in a bad way for anybody though. I just meant I still think this system has some surprises in store for us all, Hopefully good surprises. Has anybody started to track the system as it comes ashore in Cali? I looked at it last night and it looked like it was going to make landfall between San Francisco and Eureka, CA. Central to lower colorado is going to get bombed with heavy snow is what I noticed too, Showed that it may stretch down into Albuquerque as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z RGEM looking sexy. Nice first wave thump then the second wave attacks TN from the south west at hour 48 with good coverage. Not sure about amounts, clown is still processing on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z RGEM looking sexy. Nice first wave thump then the second wave attacks TN from the south west at hour 48 with good coverage. Not sure about amounts, clown is still processing on tidbits. Almost all mods are working towards the same solution. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z RGEM precip at hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z RGEM precip at hour 48Glad to see you posting Stovepipe! I had thought you had vanished. This may bode well for the 12z CMC run here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm curious as to what the GFS is going to dish out this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm curious as to what the GFS is going to dish out this time. I would guess a little further northwest with the second wave. Not major changes but I'm willing to bet it heads in that direction somewhat. We will know the fate of this storm by 0z tonight it is go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Stove, glad you posted that. Here is the IR of that run. I have been checking around this morning. The winter storm warnings in California are posted until Thursday AM. They are expecting over 2' at the highest elevations and are dealing with flooding at lower elevations. The problem that I see when just watching a loop of the West coast, there is a ton of energy rolling into the Sierra Nevada and Mountain West, just wave after wave. It makes sense when you look at the RGEM to see wave after wave roll East. I count three pieces of energy that could impact our forum area. It is possible that it splits the area as well. As many have mentioned in this AM's conversation, still plenty on the table for snows in the 1-3" range in E TN at least. Now, what Stove posted is the 12z RGEM and it has the third piece of energy. It is no wonder the models are struggling. The energy is strung out and interacts with the northern streams to varying degrees. The first wave roles over the top of the ridge and impacts mainly the eastern half of TN north of I40. Some models try to build a southern component by having that first piece of energy trail and connect with the second piece. The second piece is much further south as the trough and blocking push it south. Eventually, the third piece is pushed out and catches the second piece. There may even be one more piece after that unless it just fizzles in the southern Rockies. I guess to sum up...this is coming out in pieces and not one big chunk. If one of those pieces stalls in the GOM...that is the piece to watch. Below, you can see three of those pieces on the modeled IR image. The first piece is exiting the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The trend has been for more separation between the northern stream and the southern stream .....and is a little stronger with our southern energy. All good signs. .... guessing the 12z Canadian will be a pretty good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 annother total miss by the gfs for tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z GFS looks virtually identical to it's last 3 or 4 runs in terms of precip shield. I expected more of a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 almost like theres a big old dome on top of tennessee snow to the west north and south and east but nothing in tenneseee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 After it rolls, I'd love to see a map of low locations on the GEFS if anyone has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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