tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:26 AM, Chinook said: TNWeathernut: what is your avatar? A great day of -NAO, a great day of -AO, and/or a 500mb analysis of a great storm for the TN valley? Today, we have nearly connected ridges in Greenland and the Yukon, similar to your avatar. Expand Hey Chinook, I wish it was something of significance pertaining to a great period of our past, but in reality it was a model forecast from a prior year (can't remember when exactly) that didn't verify..... like so many periods of blocking from the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM not too friendly though Montgomery and Columbus might get a surprise dusting. However...this is not the NAM wheelhouse as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks as if the 0z NAM is just a strung out mess. Very consistent w 18z run. Second wave appeared weaker. But as Mr Bob stated...not in its wheelhouse just yet. Not much separation between the first and second systems as there is even some interaction between the two on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nam 0z all shredded up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM doesn't surprise me at this range. It's prone to wild swings in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS still too far south to help most of us, but it was just a hair slower and 25 miles or so NW of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 3:59 AM, John1122 said: GFS still too far south to help most of us, but it was just a hair slower and 25 miles or so NW of 18z. Expand Come up about another 100 miles and Chattanooga will be in play for at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 CMC not as sheared out with the 1st system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yeah, the Canadian was precip happy with wave one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Well, I suppose in all our desperation there is a small ray of hope for those who desire a good snow. Follow up of the last CMC shown- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:21 AM, John1122 said: Yeah, the Canadian was precip happy with wave one. Expand Yeah, that is the wave I have been watching. That is fairly consistent with the euro. Just hoping we can squeeze an inch or two and not really worrying/thinking about wave two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Canadian did pretty well for us, good precip shield with wave one and light snow continues through the day Friday as the low moves through the Gulf. Ratio'd out to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:02 AM, Tucker1027 said: Come up about another 100 miles and Chattanooga will be in play for at least something. Expand At this point, if we see snow flying in the air, I'll consider it a win.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 My Standards for victory are 2-3 inches. Just enough to escape the novelty of trace amounts. Still I'll accept what I get. Still being in school, I hope for the almighty school closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 UKIE puts down probably .15-.30 through 72 from probably Nashville and East, should be all snow. Precip maps don't go beyond 72 on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:21 AM, John1122 said: UKIE puts down probably .15-.30 through 72 from probably Nashville and East, should be all snow. Precip maps don't go beyond 72 on there. Expand Is the 0z UKIE run similar to the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:40 AM, John1122 said: Canadian did pretty well for us, good precip shield with wave one and light snow continues through the day Friday as the low moves through the Gulf. Ratio'd out to this. Expand as long as everyone south of me gets screwed, I'm happy... j/k, j/k... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Non-ratio'd Euro. Further east the better you look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 6:19 AM, John1122 said: Non-ratio'd Euro. Further east the better you look. I was just about ready to post that! It actually a good run for east TN peeps. 1 to 2 inches with the first wave and then the 2nd wave seemed to be more robust and northwest of the GFS. Looking at the 500 mb maps that run was close to something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 6:22 AM, 1234snow said: I was just about ready to post that! It actually a good run for east TN peeps. 1 to 2 inches with the first wave and then the 2nd wave seemed to be more robust and northwest of the GFS. Looking at the 500 mb maps that run was close to something bigger. Expand Do you have access to the 15:1 map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 6:24 AM, John1122 said: Do you have access to the 15:1 map?If it is on WeatherBell I'm struggling to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 6:27 AM, 1234snow said: If it is on WeatherBell I'm struggling to find it. Expand This was last nights 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Overall the heavier axis of precip shifted a bit more NW and now covers more of East Tennessee with heavier snow than last night's Euro. We have a decent event on the Canadian, UKIE, and Euro. Nothing doing on the GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 6:36 AM, John1122 said: Overall the heavier axis of precip shifted a bit more NW and now covers more of East Tennessee with heavier snow than last night's Euro. We have a decent event on the Canadian, UKIE, and Euro. Nothing doing on the GFS/NAM.Finally found it. Overall a noticeable tick upwards from last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 6:41 AM, 1234snow said: Finally found it. Overall a noticeable tick upwards from last nights run. Expand climo says, hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 6:41 AM, 1234snow said: Finally found it. Overall a noticeable tick upwards from last nights run. Expand I honestly get the feeling it's not done with it's precip shield being more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 I believe the southern areas will have more moisture and lower ratios and the northern/western areas will get ratios that are nice. 13 to 15:1 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Euro gives my area (Sevier County) a decent hit. Things looking up. I always go by one motto in life. The Euro nailed Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 6:43 AM, John1122 said: I honestly get the feeling it's not done with it's precip shield being more robust. Here is the upper levels at hour 78 on the Euro. If we can get more stream separation early in the run and have it a little more robust/negative tilt moving through the Mississippi valley then the precip shield will move west and northwest. We should know by 12z tomorrow on a locked in solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 06z GFS no changes when will we see the first models with land base sampling will it be the next GFS and euro runs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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