John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 12z runs tomorrow will probably have the full story on any further N/W trends. See if the GFS begins to recover any tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:35 PM, jaxjagman said: left out tys .33Sorry didn't see this before. At a good rate that's 3-5" at Knoxville correct?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 What would that rate be for memphis?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:38 PM, weathertree4u said: As is that would be an inch or so of fluffy snow for the Nashville area, seen bad things around here with less! Expand Should be high ratio snow with frigid upper levels, maybe 2 inches out of .15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:39 PM, PowellVolz said: Sorry didn't see this before. At a good rate that's 3-5" at Knoxville correct? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand At 10:1 it's 3.3, at 15:1 it's 4.8. I would think ratios will be above 10:1 but not sure how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:40 PM, AMZ8990 said: What would that rate be for memphis?? Expand Should be 12-15:1 i'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:35 PM, weathertree4u said: Is this up or down from previous run? Expand Looks ever so slightly up for most of TN but down for everyone south and east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:50 PM, Coach B said: Looks ever so slightly up for most of TN but down for everyone south and east of us. Expand I can live with a 3-4 inch snow. On to the next model run, and see what changes yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro snow here is mostly on the first wave looks to me like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:54 PM, Reb said: Euro snow here is mostly on the first wave looks to me like... Expand Agree. I am not sure we see higher rates on the first wave. Very similar to the CMC. John, when does the energy come ashore. Looks like tomorrow AM. New data might not be in the system until tomorrow night at the earliest, right? Seems like these systems that originate in the Pacific just don't get sampled as well as systems that originate in the northern stream. I could be wrong. IMO, still a ways to go with a system that is +72 hrs from here and the pieces are not all on the continent. I suspect one more big shift once it gets sampled well once over the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 It should be getting to shore around 12z tomorrow, Euro moves it on fastest, GFS slowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:54 PM, Reb said: Euro snow here is mostly on the first wave looks to me like... Expand Not sure what the temps were on the Euro, don't have access to the maps. The snow on the GEM in the first wave falls with temps in the mid to upper 20s and 850s in the upper 10s to low 20s. Should be decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro temps are dicey at best for anyone in the Great Valley....moreso south. Euro does not really slam the cold air down until nightfall Fri...tough to get the cold air down into the valley to seal the deal....but all speculation as next run will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monoptn Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 What in the world has happened to Stovepipe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 7:18 PM, Mr Bob said: Euro temps are dicey at best for anyone in the Great Valley....moreso south. Euro does not really slam the cold air down until nightfall Fri...tough to get the cold air down into the valley to seal the deal....but all speculation as next run will be different. Expand Noticed the "warm-up" as well, especially in NC. You mentioned earlier this has been happening all winter with other systems. Is there a possibility the modeled system comes a bit north in response to the temp profile? Is the front slower and/or trough more shallow? Just seems like system precip migrates to the frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 7:23 PM, monoptn said: What in the world has happened to Stovepipe? Expand I see him lurking in the list of members logged in...good to see you posting. I noticed you as well. Need more middle TN posters. What you got on this system. Stovepipe? I hope we get to bring out the Dr No pic this winter. Kvskelton, hope we see him post as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 7:23 PM, monoptn said: What in the world has happened to Stovepipe? Expand Stove already cliff dived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 18Z NAM running... See if it holds any changes from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monoptn Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 7:32 PM, Carvers Gap said: I see him lurking in the list of members logged in...good to see you posting. I noticed you as well. Need more middle TN posters. What you got on this system. Stovepipe? I hope we get to bring out the Dr No pic this winter. Kvskelton, hope we see him post as well. Expand I've been here for years reading, just don't ever post. I have nothing to add to the discussions, I just pick the best clown map and hope that it comes to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NAM out to 24H 3 Millibar stronger than previous run Low in same position at this point to the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 MRX not impressed with model divergence. Very low confidence in accumulating snow fall in East TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NAM at 52 showing rain and ,40s in TN Thursday snow in Ohio and KY. Other low s stuck not moving out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I don't have access to the Euro, but it sounds like the EPS was all over the place based on other forums. The mean did increase snow totals a little bit for the TN valley, but it sounds like there were lots of misses too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 8:26 PM, Wurbus said: I don't have access to the Euro, but it sounds like the EPS was all over the place based on other forums. The mean did increase snow totals a little bit for the TN valley, but it sounds like there were lots of misses too. Expand I just looked at the possible low locations. They were similar to the UKMET. Nothing overwhelming in terms of divergence. Maybe a bit slower and slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-may-threaten-slippery-travel-in-southern-us-as-week-concludes/70000449 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 8:31 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-may-threaten-slippery-travel-in-southern-us-as-week-concludes/70000449 Expand More fake news, someone tell Brian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 8:30 PM, Carvers Gap said: I just looked at the possible low locations. They were similar to the UKMET. Nothing overwhelming in terms of divergence. Maybe a bit slower and slightly west. Expand Thanks, Do you know if the increase for the mean was mostly due to the first wave or a few big dog solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 8:32 PM, weathertree4u said: More fake news, someone tell Brian! Expand Ha ha ha... So true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 8:35 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: Expand But track is looking favorable for TN at ,72 almost looks like it's running a front connected to the of shore storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 8:32 PM, weathertree4u said: More fake news, someone tell Brian! Expand Ha ha ha... So true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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