Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley First Half 2017

[White Gorilla]

10 minutes ago, Hitman said:

I'll believe it when I see it.  Waiting on another screw job here.

I completely get your skepticism based on history, but I am getting a really good feeling about this one.

[Juliancolton]

Quick round-up for the mountain men... all totals in liquid equivalent for true comparison value and encompass the entire storm period. I promise I won't call anyone a commie if they hope America loses this one.

UKMET: 2.0" - 3.0" (http://i.imgur.com/c1ynwMS.gif)

GGEM: 1.6 - 2.2"+ (http://i.imgur.com/Me1T11H.png)

German ICON: 1.6" - 2.0" (http://i.imgur.com/HNpmiH7.gif)

4km NAM: 1.4" 1.6" (http://i.imgur.com/CP1BsNa.png)

3km NAM: 1.3" - 1.8" (http://i.imgur.com/9wErozs.png)

RGEM: 1.2 - 1.7"+ (http://i.imgur.com/A5sWFwU.gif)

SREFs: ~1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/uEUCggS.gif) – 09z plumes for POU range from 0.36" to 2.58" with a mean of 1.43"

12km NAM: 1" - 1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/WKLtLLF.png)

GFS: 0.5" - 1.0" (http://i.imgur.com/CxdjZeb.png)

[IrishRob17]

32 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Quick round-up for the mountain men... all totals in liquid equivalent for true comparison value and encompass the entire storm period. I promise I won't call anyone a commie if they hope America loses this one.

UKMET: 2.0" - 3.0" (http://i.imgur.com/c1ynwMS.gif)

GGEM: 1.6 - 2.2"+ (http://i.imgur.com/Me1T11H.png)

German ICON: 1.6" - 2.0" (http://i.imgur.com/HNpmiH7.gif)

4km NAM: 1.4" 1.6" (http://i.imgur.com/CP1BsNa.png)

3km NAM: 1.3" - 1.8" (http://i.imgur.com/9wErozs.png)

RGEM: 1.2 - 1.7"+ (http://i.imgur.com/A5sWFwU.gif)

SREFs: ~1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/uEUCggS.gif) – 09z plumes for POU range from 0.36" to 2.58" with a mean of 1.43"

12km NAM: 1" - 1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/WKLtLLF.png)

GFS: 0.5" - 1.0" (http://i.imgur.com/CxdjZeb.png)

Nice work

[snywx]

32 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Quick round-up for the mountain men... all totals in liquid equivalent for true comparison value and encompass the entire storm period. I promise I won't call anyone a commie if they hope America loses this one.

UKMET: 2.0" - 3.0" (http://i.imgur.com/c1ynwMS.gif)

GGEM: 1.6 - 2.2"+ (http://i.imgur.com/Me1T11H.png)

German ICON: 1.6" - 2.0" (http://i.imgur.com/HNpmiH7.gif)

4km NAM: 1.4" 1.6" (http://i.imgur.com/CP1BsNa.png)

3km NAM: 1.3" - 1.8" (http://i.imgur.com/9wErozs.png)

RGEM: 1.2 - 1.7"+ (http://i.imgur.com/A5sWFwU.gif)

SREFs: ~1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/uEUCggS.gif) – 09z plumes for POU range from 0.36" to 2.58" with a mean of 1.43"

12km NAM: 1" - 1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/WKLtLLF.png)

GFS: 0.5" - 1.0" (http://i.imgur.com/CxdjZeb.png)

Damn the Ukie is a beast! 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

38 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Quick round-up for the mountain men... all totals in liquid equivalent for true comparison value and encompass the entire storm period. I promise I won't call anyone a commie if they hope America loses this one.

UKMET: 2.0" - 3.0" (http://i.imgur.com/c1ynwMS.gif)

GGEM: 1.6 - 2.2"+ (http://i.imgur.com/Me1T11H.png)

German ICON: 1.6" - 2.0" (http://i.imgur.com/HNpmiH7.gif)

4km NAM: 1.4" 1.6" (http://i.imgur.com/CP1BsNa.png)

3km NAM: 1.3" - 1.8" (http://i.imgur.com/9wErozs.png)

RGEM: 1.2 - 1.7"+ (http://i.imgur.com/A5sWFwU.gif)

SREFs: ~1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/uEUCggS.gif) – 09z plumes for POU range from 0.36" to 2.58" with a mean of 1.43"

12km NAM: 1" - 1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/WKLtLLF.png)

GFS: 0.5" - 1.0" (http://i.imgur.com/CxdjZeb.png)

Awesome post. Thanks

[Juliancolton]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

Damn the Ukie is a beast! 

Yeah, that would be memorable to say the very least. Could be some pretty righteous drifts around here if the CMC and Ukie have any their way.

 

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Awesome post. Thanks

Figured it might help provide a nice summary for the heathens who aren't tracking this thing 24/7.  

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, that would be memorable to say the very least. Could be some pretty righteous drifts around here if the CMC and Ukie have any their way.

 

If the Ukie or CMC are correct there is no question that some of the favored locales up here will approach 3'

[JerseyWx]

Yes, Nice Julian.  The UKMET actually got wetter from last nights run.  Nearly 2" QPF over all of NJ.

[snywx]

One thing I am noticing is the CCB seems to be modeled over the HV. Something to keep an eye on

[snywx]

12z GGEM at 54hrs..

My lord!

 

[hawkeye]

52 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Quick round-up for the mountain men... all totals in liquid equivalent for true comparison value and encompass the entire storm period. I promise I won't call anyone a commie if they hope America loses this one.

UKMET: 2.0" - 3.0" (http://i.imgur.com/c1ynwMS.gif)

GGEM: 1.6 - 2.2"+ (http://i.imgur.com/Me1T11H.png)

German ICON: 1.6" - 2.0" (http://i.imgur.com/HNpmiH7.gif)

4km NAM: 1.4" 1.6" (http://i.imgur.com/CP1BsNa.png)

3km NAM: 1.3" - 1.8" (http://i.imgur.com/9wErozs.png)

RGEM: 1.2 - 1.7"+ (http://i.imgur.com/A5sWFwU.gif)

SREFs: ~1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/uEUCggS.gif) – 09z plumes for POU range from 0.36" to 2.58" with a mean of 1.43"

12km NAM: 1" - 1.3" (http://i.imgur.com/WKLtLLF.png)

GFS: 0.5" - 1.0" (http://i.imgur.com/CxdjZeb.png)

If a post like that could be a sticky post & be updated as new models come out, that would be golden.

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

12z GGEM at 54hrs..

My lord!

 

We take it square on the jaw there... conveyors maxing out right overhead. A HV jackpot zone seems like a very real possibility right now

[Juliancolton]

Euro pushed well NW with the heaviest precip - 1.6" to 2"+ for everyone here. Some areas of 70+ mph gusts east of the Hudson.

[White Gorilla]

Just now, Juliancolton said:

Euro pushed well NW with the heaviest precip - 1.6" to 2"+ for everyone here. Some areas of 70+ mph gusts east of the Hudson.

Can I start getting excited now or should I still wait?

[White Gorilla]

12 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

We take it square on the jaw there... conveyors maxing out right overhead. A HV jackpot zone seems like a very real possibility right now

Could this be the storm that balances out all the fringe jobs in recent years?

[Juliancolton]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Can I start getting excited now or should I still wait?

You've been excited for days now just like the rest of us.

Expect a major storm (12") and leave the door open for an epic one. Two full days is plenty of time for the bottom to fall out but that would be exceptional and not anticipated IMO.

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Could this be the storm that balances out all the fringe jobs in recent years?

lol, nah... good start though. A couple feet on Tuesday would get most of the way toward making things right for Feb '06.

[White Gorilla]

3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

You've been excited for days now just like the rest of us.

Expect a major storm (12") and leave the door open for an epic one. Two full days is plenty of time for the bottom to fall out but that would be exceptional and not anticipated IMO.

Yeah, still a lot of model runs to go, but the trends today couldn't have been better.

[Hitman]

15 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Can I start getting excited now or should I still wait?

I'm waiting.  No whammies.

[snywx]

20 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Could this be the storm that balances out all the fringe jobs in recent years?

No way.. We have a long way to go for that. This would be a nice start though

[JerseyWx]

So essentially the GGEM, UKMET, and EURO all have massively huge storms.

[snywx]

The beauty about all this is that im actually off!! Woohoo. I can enjoy the storm right from the comforts of my own home. 

[snywx]

1 minute ago, JerseyWx said:

So essentially the GGEM, UKMET, and EURO all have massively huge storms.

Every model with the exception of the GFS shows massive amounts of snow for our region. 

[hawkeye]

Just think, if meteorology was an exact science & we could tell what the exact weather & snowfall amounts would be for days & months ahead of time, would it really be fun?

The uncertainty makes it fun.

 

[JerseyWx]

Just now, snywx said:

Every model with the exception of the GFS shows massive amounts of snow for our region. 

Right.  Let's see how the EPS looks later on.  I like how consistent the UKMET has been also.

[hudsonvalley21]

47 minutes ago, hawkeye said:

If a post like that could be a sticky post & be updated as new models come out, that would be golden.

I agree, kudos to Julian 

[Animal]

Afternoon AFD from Mt Holly NWS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Major 12 to 15 hour winter storm to produce high impact event
 most of our area between roughly 3 AM and 3 PM Tuesday***

The 330 PM forecast for Wednesday and beyond is straight WPC
guidance with all of this day shift focus on the Monday night
-Tuesday night portion of the forecast.

2AM Tuesday: As a forecaster, my suggestion from the vast majority
of the forecast information is that you want to be, wherever
you can be safe and comfortable for 18 hours, by 2 AM Tuesday,
with subsequent gradual recovery and resumption of traveling
life starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night. This is likely to
be the heaviest snowstorm of the winter, so far, for all of our
area except the ACY area to Sussex County DE storm in early
January.

Hazards:

1) Snowfall:

Warning 8-18" much of e PA and NNJ with blowing and drifting a
possible problem. Small chc of a period of sleet near I-78
around or shortly after sunrise. Snowfall of 1-2"/hour possible
for several hours. Above average confidence.

Warning 6-12" along I-95 PHL to ILG and extreme ne MD where
several hours of sleet between 5 am and 10 am could knock down
snow amounts close to 6 inches. More details tomorrow when we
are more certain of thermal profiles

Watch: Greater than 6" possible. Many complications can occur
in the eastern NJ. More details tomorrow when we can maybe figure
out the reliable expected thermal profiles. The potential is to
change to sleet or rain as temperatures attempt to rise to near
40 for a few hours near or after sunrise when ne winds hammer
the coast with 50 to 60 MPH.

2) Coastal flooding: see coastal flood section.

3) Wind: Northeast wind gusts 50 to 60 mph along the nearest
few miles of the coast Tuesday morning with scattered power
outages expected before winds turn north and northwest and
diminish Tuesday midday or afternoon. At this time, if its
snowing, we ?may? consider Blizzard, but if its rain, then a
high wind warning will work. There is not currently a heavy
inclination to fcst a blizzard in Monmouth county.

The brunt of this event should occur between 3 AM Tuesday and 3
PM Tuesday which will include snowfall rates of 1-2"/hour for a
few hours northwest of I-95.

This storm will show accumulations on pavement, especially prior
to 8AM Tuesday and then during the day where snowfall rates of
1-2"/hour occur. The difference between this and last Friday
March 10, aside from much heavier precipitation amounts, higher
wind, and slightly colder temperatures during the storm, is the
antecedent ground temperatures. On Friday, the 30 degree snowfall
occurred 12 to 15 hours after high temperatures ranged from the
upper 50s to upper 60s. This time, it will occur with frozen or
nearly frozen ground that includes yesterdays, 2nd or 3rd
coldest daytime temps of the winter, and several nights of
below freezing temperatures.

Uncertainty: the usual caveats based on track, modeled deformation-
lift in the dendritic growth zone, as well as periods of recovery,
even during the day when snowfall rates in the bands become light,
but overall confidence is above average on a high impact event,
especially Tuesday morning.


AFTER the primary event: Tuesday night-Wednesday. The upper trough
will generate groups of accumulative snow showers for our area
Tuesday night and Wednesday. That combined with possible blowing and
drifting of the snow on the ridges, and roads exposed to farm
fields,  may hinder or divert some of the clean up effort.

 

[snywx]

4k NAM destroys the HV.. CCB ft.  Also hinting at some subsidence in and around NYC from the megaband overhead here in the HV

[Animal]

was out on the road and decided to check in with 1010 WINS in NYC

Live met on the radio

Long Island - 6-12 with a mix and going to rain for a time

NYC - 12

upwards of 2 feet heading NW of the city. Almost swerved off the road.

[snywx]

The RGEM is a thing of beauty for the interior.